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Those stat breakdowns are great and give solid insight into the differing variables at play. However, I think what the OP and then ALB are complaining about is what happens in-game rather than sims involving only the AI.
While I have no supporting data, I have played more than enough games to know something just isn't right with the slippage between human- and AI-controlled baserunners. Too many times I have seen my 110-SPD guy unable to steal 2nd against a weak-armed battery and then, in the same game, their 70-SPD steal multiple bases against my battery with a higher ARM-HOLD combination. So that's a slower runner stealing on more than one occasion against a better battery with respect to preventing steals.
Interestingly, it only seems to affect steals of second. Steals of third are a walk in the park, to the extent that I have a self-imposed limit of three per game when a RHB is at the plate (unlimited for LHB, as it is harder, just like IRL).
What makes it even more frustrating is that H&R also seems to be broken in-game. You basically cannot put on a H&R with a guy on 1st with anything better than mid-range SPD. If you do, not always but an inordinate number of times, the guy on first breaks early, the hitter will whiff and the runner gets nailed, with it almost looking like a pitchout was called (though I'm pretty sure that's just how the 3D has to represent it with so much going on).
I think a point ALB made has some relevance, that being in one-pitch mode you are unaware of the count and that might factor into it. I'm going to keep an eye on that for a while and see if any pattern emerges.
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