[Bub13]

Draft day is here! For about ten rounds, I really enjoy this. Selecting players who could be the future cornerstones of the franchise. After that, not so great. Despite trading away two top picks (2nd and 5th rounders), we're still well positioned for today, with a supplemental first rounder and extra picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds. MLB has us taking a groundball pitcher in the first and a high-contact/low-power IF in the supplemental round. (Sniff...they really do get me, don't they.)

Elsewhere...Baltimore was so bad last year they should get the first five picks. But no, they'll get just the one. After them it's St Louis, California, Kansas City, and the Cubs to round out the top five. KC and Cincinnati are the only teams with multiple picks. Eight teams have no first round picks at all. MLB sees four pitchers going straight away, then SS Eddie Feltman going at five. The top twenty prospects are dominated by pitchers, with only six positional players making the list. Pretty much like last year, although teams went "off board" to draft batters lower on the list with top picks. I expect more of the same this year, especially as some of the top-ranked SP prospects look likely to develop into relievers instead. (Interestingly, MLB says the Orioles will take a pitcher who barely cracks the top 50.)

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Once the dust settles, there was something of an inversion at the top of the charts: predraft #5 Eddie Feltman went first overall to the Orioles, while #1 Steve Scibek went fourth to the Royals. St Louis took college 2B Chris Fortune second, California grabbed OF Chris Burns, then KC, followed by the Cubs selecting OF Brian Hassell. That last pick looks like the best bet to me, as Hassell is just 18 and has high ceilings across the board. The other four guys, while good, are all nearly 22 or older, and I doubt some of them will hit their peaks, ever. With their two picks, Cincy grabbed a pair of power hitting OF, because they always do. (Both look good, but will have K problems.) With their second 1st rounder, KC took pitcher Goldie Waters; if they can sign him, he looks like absolute, um, gold. With the picks they got from us, the Royals took yet another high-power/high-K outfielder, and a pitcher described as "likely to make poor decisions both on and off the field."

As for us, it looks like we'll be able to sign all our guys, as only a couple at the top of the pile are at least "hard" to sign. And no one will break the bank either. Here's how I see the top of our draft:

Round 1, 30th overall: P/OF Erik Bennetsen, 21, USC. Good-looking kid who, if he can get his control sorted out, could be our first true two-way player, if I go that route. As a pitcher, he's got big-time stuff, decent movement, and potentially okay control. As a regular player, he's a five-tool guy, although his best feature is contact and power. Reminds me of Cam Daley, quite a bit.

Round 1 supplemental, 43rd overall: OF Jonathan Johannes, 21, Puerto Rico-Cayey. If my scouts are right, he's a 40+ HR guy. Only drawbacks look like a disinclination to take a walk, and the inability to run. But he can do a home run trot, right?

Round 3, 83rd overall: P Ken Taylor, 22, Long Beach State. MLB's choice for our first pick; but we waited, and he was still available in the third. Lucky us, as he looks like a mid-rotation starter. Great stamina, excellent fastball, smart. Could use some better movement.

Round 3, 110th overall: P Narayan Seshu, 21, Kansas State. Sidd Finch, come on down! Okay, not really. But the 6'8" lefty from Bhutan joins our Team UN (prospects from Kyrgyzstan, Wallis Islands, Chile, etc), and looks like a very promising reliever. Once his control tightens up, his elite fastball and top-notch change could see him in a closer role one day.

Round 4, 114th overall: SS Danny Gerald, 20, LSU. Average to just above-average at the plate, his real value comes in excellent fielding and solid speed/baserunning. Utility infielders are useful too; you can't always draft sluggers and ace pitchers.

Round 4, 146th overall: OF Jeremy Hagemann, 18, high school. Here's me just trying to fit in with the crowd, selecting a modern day prototype hitter: huge power, lots of strikeouts, fair contact. Pretty slow too, but has decent range in the field. Kind of looks limited to LF, tho.

After these guys, it's business as usual. Maybe someone will step up, make the team one day...or most likely not.

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Our prospect system remains in first place, with nine players in the top 100, and five more (six, counting the departed Greg Van Tilburg) in the top 200. And I think we've got legitimate pro-level prospects beyond those guys (mostly relievers, but also catcher Mike Covington). The cream of the crop are:

1B Jules Medici, 21, ranked #3, Hawaii: .253/.326/.333, 2 HR. Slowly getting more at bats, filling in for injuries and rotating in for the declining Adam Groff. He looks ready to me, although he still strikes out a bit too much right now.

SP Mike Bader, 23, ranked #19, Hawaii: 4-4, 4.44 ERA, 79 IP. Has the better all-around balance of our two top pitching prospects in the bigs right now. Needs his circle change to develop into a nice third pitch.

SP Henry Skiffington, 24, ranked #23, Hawaii: 7-4, 4.45 ERA, 83 IP. Like Bader, is still developing. Looks great some nights, like a wide-eyed rookie others.

OF Josh Hed, 24, ranked #35, AAA: .291/.378/.547 (and 2-for-9 with Hawaii). Is definitely ready for the big time, and would be up right now if not for a back strain. Well-suited for center, but may get a shot in left as Daley's defense slowly bottoms out. Hits for contact and power.

SP Daniel Croft, 21, ranked #43, AA: 1-7, 4.55 ERA, 65 IP. Quite possibly the best pitching prospect in our system. Power pitcher developing a five-pitch arsenal.

3B Jose Villalpando, 16, ranked #49, international complex: no stats. Scouting discovery out of Colombia in December. Right now, he looks to become a high-contact power hitter, will take a walk, but low on gap power. Fielding is middling, but with a rocket arm. At just 16, however, there's a lot of time for things to go south.

SP Manny Reyes, 19, ranked #55, Short A: no stats yet. One of our four supplemental picks from last summer. Injuries limited him to just two games last year. Another guy with balanced ratings, and working on his three-pitch repertoire. Definitely a few years away.

OF Diego Espino, 21, ranked #63, AAA: 4-for-24 (.234 in AA as well). He's not hitting yet this year, but the future is still bright...or at least fairly light...for Diego. He rates above average in every batting category, is a future team captain, and is an excellent fielder. Will he develop enough bat to be a starter one day? Who knows...

SP Andy Burke, 22, ranked #93, A: 6-2, 4.13 ERA, 65 IP. You know you're high on a guy when, on draft day, he demands--and gets--a major league contract and is put on the 40-man roster before throwing a pitch for you. Along with Croft (above), we have the makings of a solid 1-2 punch at the top of our future rotation. His four-pitch arsenal is about 80% there, and when his control rounds out we'll be ready for him. (He's walking 3.2 per 9 in A ball, so it's not like he's godawful right now.)

Best of the rest ... The next four guys--John Loeb, Travis Harris, Danny Carbajal, and Larry Hensley--are all SP, and each has major plusses and some drawbacks. Don't count any of them out, although none are locks either. (And AAA starter Miguel Tirado could figure, although he's listed as an RP prospect right now.) I also like the bats of OF Doug Pederson and Noah Williams, although neither is great guns in the field. Catcher Mike Covington could be a regular by this time next year. And there's a slew of dime-a-dozen RP out there, some of whom I even really like.