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I believe this has been going on for a while. In OOTP20 I had a team with a lot of players with high base stealing ratings (80+). Their stealing %'s were terrible, and one of them (Martin Dihigo) got caught stealing over 50% of the time.
I wondered if it was just bad luck in terms of running into catchers with good arms and/or pitchers with good 'hold runner' ratings. So I went and reviewed a number of games (not exhaustive, but a sample of about 5 games) where he was caught stealing and in every occasion the catcher's arm and pitcher's rating was marginal at best.
Very frustrating. Not as thorough analysis like yours, but some anecdotal evidence to go along with what you are saying.
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