[Bub13]

So, that happened. While I enjoy these fun rides that successful regular seasons bring, the ensuing playoff crash is a helluva low. Once again we combined league-best hitting with some season-long quality pitching, only to see it all fall apart in just a few games in October. While the offense was held under water for a couple of critical games, it was our pitching that really let us down. My top three starters--Pearse, Jones, Jackson--had a combined league championship ERA that neared 8.00; Josh Irvin was inconsistent, but then he's a rookie; and Dennis Perry lost all effectiveness, both as a starter and in relief. Combined they gave up 13 home runs. And while we generally hit well, one glaring exception stood out: Adam Groff hit .240 in the Miami series (and only because he got five hits in the last two games) with just one XBH and 2 RBI. For the full post-season, he batted just .167. He's still productive over the course of a full season, but his hitting droughts are getting longer and more pronounced. What will 2052 bring I wonder...

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The off-season gets off to a...strange...beginning, when owner Alexis Pagan steams in on his mega-yacht to say how pleased he was with the season, despite the bad ending. Playoff revenue, a reduced payroll, and near-record attendance brought in $36M in profit...most of which he kept. But now, things are different. He tells me he's out: out of the company he founded, and now out of the picture as team owner. And yet, he still hands me a list of "recommendations" for the coming season: win it all, improve team defense, sign closer Jon White to an extension, cut payroll more, build a dynasty. Stranger still, he raises the budget for next year by $18M, to $238M, which places us sixth in all of baseball. Raise the budget but cut player payroll? What's going on here? We'll have 238 mill to spend, but only 130 mill on players?

I go to Google school (aka "the internet") to dig for more info. (Confession: I had one of the interns do it.) Bizness Insiderrr says that a new consortium is taking the helm at Pagan Holdings and has opened new offices in the Cayman Islands. Is this a good thing...?

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Ok. On the "I expected that" news front, we can get back to regular player developments. First, Jeremy Dunklee and Faustino Whitton retire. Whitton came over in a trade from LA in '49, but he never did hit much for me when I tried giving him larger roles. (He hit .261 in 226 AB over three seasons.) Still, his leadership and great attitude made him a worthwhile vet to keep on hand, and we won a title with him on board last year. He retires with a career .297/.375/.440 slash, 2451 hits, 188 HR, 374 steals, and 48.6 WAR. He was a two-time all-star and won three Silver Sluggers, all with Richmond. (I signed him as an international free agent for Richmond waaaay back in 2030.) He had some solid seasons with the Eagles, but was too inconsistent then later on too injury-riddled to produce enough for a solid look from the Hall. Dunklee, on the other hand, has a legit HoF case. We signed him out of the IBL in '34, our inaugural year, and he played right away. By '35 he was a star, and quickly won an MVP trophy the following year. He retires with a .291/.411/.515 slash, 2508 hits, 444 HR, 1512 RBI, 1712 BB, and 80.7 WAR. He was an eight-time all-star and won six Silver Sluggers. By most Hall metrics, he's in, by wide or narrow margins. I'm glad he finished his career here; he's also the final link to our expansion season. Now I'm all that's left. (Although there are six players drafted that first summer who are still active, just not with us.)

Second, third, fourth, and so on.... With the demanded payroll decrease to $130M, I'll be looking to shave off $5M from our current outlay. (Or will I?) To start, I probably won't bring back anyone heading to free agency. That includes: SP Dennis Perry (made $6M, asking for double that); C Rob Rich (made $5M, wants the same but for six more years; he's 31.); CL Jon White (we paid him $4.8 of his overall $6.8M deal. He wants nearly $10M); 1B Steve Wallace (made $2.7M, but I have no idea what he wants next year as I'm not answering his agent's calls); RP Robbie Collier (made $1.5M at age 37. He wants $7.75M per for two more years. LOL.). And then there's Eric Jones, who decided to void his final contract year (he would've made $15.1M) and try his toes in the murky waters of free agency. Do I let the 14-year vet, perhaps our steadiest pitcher all season, simply walk away? Yep; he's declining, according to our scouts, and with his already-average stuff, he doesn't have far to go to become a drag o the rotation. On top of that there's the usual mush of departing minor league free agents, 25 this year, and no one terribly surprising. Nine of those guys come from AAA (five are pitchers), so there will be some serious retooling on the upper farm. Nobody we can't live without, including two guys on the 40-man (vets C Brett Monize and IF Joe Sayers).

Arbitrations and other contract news... Five potential free agents (listed above), and five arbitration cases are next on the radar. As I said, I'm not offering contracts to any of the free agents, including Jones. That's the toughest case, as he's been with us forever. But it's time to cut bait. The other decision I mull over a bit is Rob Rich. He had a nice comeback year, batting .345 and producing 3.3 WAR in a platoon role. But he'll be 32 soon, and this season came after two years of producing next to nothing offensively, so I'm not convinced he's entering a late-in-life renaissance. Jon White was also effective for us, but at 35 his time is limited. Ditto for Collier (who's 37 and has major injury history). Saying goodbye to both of them depletes the pen of lefties, so I'll be on the lookout for at least one LHP either from within or from beyond. (And Jones is a lefty too; it's a left-handed apocalypse.) The arbitration cases will all be pursued, in various ways. To wit:
...RP Kyle Johnson (current 950k, wants 2.0, we offer 1.1) -- I want him to compete for the closer role.
...C Tom Whittington (current 500k, wants 3.0, we offer 2.0) -- productive as the RHB platoon with Rich. If we lose this, I'll trade him.
...2B Josh Matson (current 3.9, wants 9.0, we offer ...) -- I've offered him an extension, which he is considering. He's worth it.
...SS Jesse Ryder (current 500k, wants 650k, we can do that) -- useful utility guy, worth having back at a cheap rate.
...OF Jerry Cappuccilli (current 4.8, wants 8.1, we offer 6.1) -- like Rich, a big comeback year. If he gets too much $$$, might have to lose him.

As usual, I expect to win the cheap ones and lose the expensive ones. With Collier and White leaving the bullpen, there's room to spend a bit on Johnson, before we decide if we'll extend him beyond next season. Whittington and Cappuccilli could be the guys who "bust" my payroll target of $130M, which would make them expendable, frankly. There are cheaper alternatives on the farm, but there's something to be said for having proven vets on your roster, especially if they bring intangibles to the table (which they both do).

The sum of our off-season departures, assuming we keep everyone going through arbs, is thus:
2 SP
2 RP (including our CL)
2 1B/DH (one regular)
1 OF/DH
1 C (RHB platoon starter)

So while we shed some considerable salary, next year still projects to a $135M payroll, including Whitt's and Capp's arb cases. Of course, I could just ignore my instructions completely and spend money like a drunken sailor. But I don't think I trust these new owners...

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Josh Matson signs his extension. He'll make slightly less than his arb estimate of $9M for the coming year, at $7.7M. For '53 that jumps to 9.35M, then to 11.55M for '54 through '57, and then team options for '58 and '59. By then he'll be 35 and quite possibly a memory, so we'll see what this ultimately costs us. All in all, quite affordable, even with my new extortionate, erm I mean FRUGAL, owners.

We also make a waiver claim, grabbing 34-year-old MR Min-Hyuk Yaung from Washington. Yaung will be a free agent and made minimum last year, so we're going to try to keep him to something resembling that for next year. He's here because he's a lefty, and if he signs he'll be first in line for that coveted bullpen slot. He tossed 58.2 IP for the Nats, fanning 67 and walking 25. And he's a four-time reliever of the year in the KBO, so that's gotta count for something, right?

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In late-November league news: a couple of small trades, a couple of waiver claims, nothing much. No owners kick the bucket, but ten managers are shown the door. Most surprisingly is Miami skipper Paul Trashini, who guided the Marlins to 95 wins and a spot in the World Series. He won 362 games in his four seasons at the helm. No word on where he'll land, nor on who will replace him in Miami. Also of note was the firing of Baltimore manager--and former Isles all-time manager--Pat Wilson. Fun fact: we went to Baltimore on 7/18, when their record was 33-57. From that date on, they went 15-57, completely falling apart. Dead last in offense, which contrived to manage the most strikeouts and the fewest walks. And they set a new MLB record with 1714 Ks! Dead last in pitching, but at least the bullpen ERA ranked 8th. What did they do well? Um...5th in steals, 4th-best ZR.

(Btw, some other all-time AL single season records were set in 2051: Hawaii (us!) 1789 hits, breaking our own mark of 1757 set back in 2039; Detroit smacked 351 HR, breaking the old record by 37; they also slugged .498, breaking our mark from '39; our pitchers struck out 1652 batters, quite a surprise to me. In the NL, Montreal (with 1678) and Pittsburgh (1664) broke the former record for most batting Ks, set by Cincy in '47 (at 1660); Philly (331) and Cincy (316) broke number for most HR; and Pirate pitchers also set their own strikeout record, retiring 1748 batters on strikes, topping the old number by 71.)

Awards time!
AL Gold Glove: P Shamar Jackson, HAW (1st!); C Jon Hill, TBR; 1B Jim Timmer, CHW (6th); 2B Alvin Phillips, KCR (2nd); 3B Vincent Obregon, SEA; SS Oscar Garza, HOU; LF Aaron Lenhard, SEA (4th); CF Joe Lynn, HAW (1st!); RF Andy Barenberg, CHW
NL Gold Glove: P Chad Akers, NOZ (4th); C Steve Newman, ATL; 1B Antonio Maestas, MTL; 2B Andy Lee, SDP; 3B Gerardo Nieto, POR; SS Rich Stoneback, LAD (4th); LF Mike Israel, SDP; CF Dan Politz, POR (2nd); RF Ed Silverio, NYM (5th)

AL Hoyt Wilhelm: Jon White, HAW, 1.89 ERA, 35 SV, 57 IP, 59 K, 1.7 WAR
NL Hoyt Wilhelm: Rafael Castro, NYM, 1.53 ERA, 64.2 IP, 72 K, 4 big saves

AL Silver Slugger: C Juan Espinoza, TEX; 1B William Swanson, TEX (3rd); 2B Ninsei Sato, CHW; 3B Ryan Walton, OAK; SS Noah Johnson, OAK; LF Felix Reyes, OAK; CF Luis Rodela, DET; RF Vance Wise, TBR; DH Cesar Alvarenga, DET (4th)
NL Silver Slugger: P Jon Carlsen, CIN; C Lance Powell, BKN (7th); 1B Alfonso Contreras, NYM (3rd); 2B Juan Rodriquez, LAD (6th); 3B Gerardo Nieto, POR; SS Ben Grossman, BKN (2nd); LF Mike Israel, SDP; CF Dustin Wasilewski, LAD; RF George Livezey, PHI (2nd)

AL Rookie of the Year: Ninsei Sato, CHW 2B (.305/.384/.603, 39 HR 114 RBI, 5.7 WAR) [Mike Pearse was a distant 3rd]
NL Rookie of the Year: Tim Bell, MON 3B (.330/.364/.542, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 4.3 WAR)

AL Manager of the Year: Chris Kenny, HAW [rookie season!]
NL Manager of the Year: Dario Agrazal, PIT (3rd win)

AL Cy Young: Conor MacLeod, MIN (18-10, 2.72 ERA, 405 K, 257 IP, 11.1 WAR)
NL Cy Young: Cris Frias, CIN (15-6, 2.15 ERA, 348 K, 192 IP, 9.1 WAR, 28 starts)

AL MVP: William Swanson, TEX 1B (2nd win, .357/.434/.691, 52 HR, 127 RBI, 8.4 WAR)
NL MVP: Gerardo Nieto, POR 3B (.347/.397/.669, 48 HR, 141 RBI, 10.3 WAR)

A surprise Gold Glove for Shamar Jackson, and a richly deserved one for Lynn. Also a surprise is the Wilhelm for Jon White, as he didn't lead any RP category except ERA. And a nice joke by voters naming a middle reliever as the best fireman in the NL. And Chris Kenny may be the youngest manager to ever win that trophy. Now let's just bring a different trophy back next year.

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Arbitrations come back...and man, did we get sand kicked in our faces. Cappuccilli came in two million over his estimate, and will receive $10.2M next year. Whittington also won, getting $3.7M instead of the three mill price tag he set for himself. Johnson and Ryder went our way, but we lost out big time. Jones also declined the qualifying offer and will sail off to free ageny. Bon voyage, Eric. These two big arbitration contracts will put us well over the "suggested" $130M payroll. Will I get concerned telegrams from the Caribbean? Or maybe just some unwarranted business audits or late night visitors instead...

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Free Agency starts, lots of money is being thrown about, and several teams have already signed multiple big contracts:
...Tampa Bay grabbed SS Rich Stoneback (4 yrs, $77M) and OF Kris Warner (5 yrs, $93M)
...Milwaukee, getting C Dan Starr (3 yrs, $55M) and 3B Dante Padilla (5 yrs, $105M)
...the Cubs made two big deals, getting OF Mike Israel (5 yrs, $101M), and vet SP D.J. Pasquarelli (3 yrs, $25M)
...LA of course is spending big: CL Bob Harrison (1 yr, $3.8M), OF David Von Eschen (4 yrs, $80M), and useful RP Chris Milano (1 yr, $4M)
...Miami lost Von Eschen, but signed SP Jon Carlsen (5 yrs, $103M), and is rumored to be after several remaining top names
...the Yankees are rich, duh: 1B Erik Morgan (1 yr, $7.2M), SS Victor Provencio (7 yrs, $83M) and OF Aaron Harrison (4 yrs, $68M)
...Houston wants to compete for real, nabbing two former Isles: SP Tim Ciotta (7 yrs, $85M) and RP Ramon Sanabria (2 yrs, $10.8M)
...Boston inks the ancient SP Eddy Llamas (2 yrs, $19M) and almost-as-old IF Mike Hunter (3 yrs, $39M). They also make the first international splash, grabbing Japanese SP Kaoru Tanaka (4 yrs, $35M)

All this and only two weeks in! Winter Meetings have also just started, which I know because we're now getting ridiculously bad trade offers. (How many Marv Throneberries for one Carl Furillo?) Also, we haven't made any moves, so maybe our new corporate masters will stay off my back.

One more note: as the Winter Meetings wrap up, teams completed ten trades, including several highly significant ones. I'll talk more about those in the next post. But I will add one more name here: LA signed our very own Eric Jones to a 3 year deal worth $30M...and they already have him listed as a relief pitcher...and their fans are already questioning the move given that Jones is 35. Our fans? They're pissed. But, I tell them, we got a supplemental draft pick! Supplemental!

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As I finish this post and think about what the rest of the off-season brings for us, I'll leave you with a definition that may give you a clue:

whiplash, n., fig., a feeling of disorientation and surprise when a sudden move is made in the opposite of the initial direction of movement. Example: "First we're going, now we're staying. I've got whiplash from you changing your mind like that."