[Argonaut]

TOP-HEAVY OR BALANCED?

I'm back, with more of a positive test today. I've seen it asked a few times whether it's better to stack your top line, or spread your best players throughout your lineup.

This is a real question that NHL teams have grappled with, and different approaches have worked for different teams at different times. My team, the Blackhawks have almost always separated Toews and Kane at even strength. This approach can often be beneficial for working the matchup game. But there's something to be said for stacking your best guns together.

The team I'm going to be looking at is the 1995-96 Penguins. I decided against the Penguins from the earlier 90s, because those teams were a bit more stacked and had enough quality depth to basically make every line an awesome one. Also, in 95-96 the Penguins mostly ran with Lemieux-Francis-Jagr on the top line, the most top-heavy setup imaginable. But what if they went with a more balanced approach?

Injuries and suspensions off of course, and I'm sure I'm forgetting some other things I did to limit variables.

THE TEST

For the 1st test I ran "The Great Line" as it was called, and basically went with the next best players in descending order for lines 2-4. The big guys also played together on the power play. For the 2nd test I kept everything the same with the defense pairings, and PP/PK. But Lemieux, Jagr, and Francis each had their own line at even strength. I made sure each of them had at least a decent player or two on their line. I also spread the minutes around more evenly.

THE RESULTS

To my surprise, the balanced approach was pretty definitively the better option in my simulations. The Penguins scored more, allowed fewer goals, and had more team points when splitting up Lemieux, Jagr, and Francis. Perhaps the spread around skill was tough for opposing matchups? I had a quick glance at the numbers in one balanced sim, and Jagr and Francis had an absurd percentage of their points on the power play though (like two-third of their points). So I don't know if that means something.

CONCLUSION

It seems like a pretty good idea to go with a balanced approach for your even strength lines in FHM. It may depend on your personnel available I suppose. And load up the power play though of course.

Sidenote: I believe Lemieux led the league in points in every single sim. Mario Lemieux with injuries turned off is a very scary thing!

EDIT: Also, this is my #999 post and I've given out 444 thanks. Nice.