Quote:
Originally Posted by Syd Thrift
Because the difference between runners on at 1st and 2nd with no outs and a runner on 2nd with no outs is negligible?
http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html
Tom Tango has it as a 61.4% that teams will score at least once with a runner on at 2nd with no outs and a 61.0% that they'll score at least once with runners on at 1st and 2nd with no outs. I'm sure that will equate to "if the hitter is above average then walk him" but it also means that if you're facing the bottom of the order or close to it, you probably have a better chance of getting the 3 guys you'd normally face out. |
Those numbers are true in general, but the offensive team can play very differently when instead of trying to maximize expected runs they are only trying to maximize the chance of scoring exactly one.
I wouldn't intentionally walk automatically, but I'd be sure not to throw anything hittable either.