OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Please take a good hard look at POWER vs CONTACT balance

RonCo · 07-21-2020, 06:23 PM

Ok. Yes. If AVK is equal, in an environment where pitcher Movement is very high, I can see that every low Power guys would not get hurt as much as very high Power guys. A guy who would normally be expected to hit 5 HR a year in a "normal" environment might hit only 2 per year (therefore losing 3 hits), where as a guy who would normally be expected to hit 45 might hit only 38, hence lose 7 hits (a difference of four hits between the two...or a difference of seven points of average on 550 AB). The BABIP rating would replace a few of those--let's say two. So the gap due to difference is maybe four points of batting average across the entirety of the Power Spectrum--or mayby two-to-three points in real use.

The AvK delta is a much bigger influence simply due to the difference between the number of Ks and the number of HR. A guy who strikes out 70 or so more times than is expected (like Ruth probably will) loses maybe 25-35 hits...or about 45-65 points of batting average on 550 AB.

07-21-2020, 06:23 PM	#142
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,351	Ok. Yes. If AVK is equal, in an environment where pitcher Movement is very high, I can see that every low Power guys would not get hurt as much as very high Power guys. A guy who would normally be expected to hit 5 HR a year in a "normal" environment might hit only 2 per year (therefore losing 3 hits), where as a guy who would normally be expected to hit 45 might hit only 38, hence lose 7 hits (a difference of four hits between the two...or a difference of seven points of average on 550 AB). The BABIP rating would replace a few of those--let's say two. So the gap due to difference is maybe four points of batting average across the entirety of the Power Spectrum--or mayby two-to-three points in real use. The AvK delta is a much bigger influence simply due to the difference between the number of Ks and the number of HR. A guy who strikes out 70 or so more times than is expected (like Ruth probably will) loses maybe 25-35 hits...or about 45-65 points of batting average on 550 AB. Last edited by RonCo; 07-21-2020 at 06:30 PM. Reason: fixing a little back of the napkin math.