View Single Post
Old 06-25-2020, 11:24 AM   #55
allenciox
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 735
So, chazzycat is right on that the POW rating is part of CON. Also AvoidK is part of CON. The third rating that is a part of CON (the most important part) is BABIP.

Everything that happens in the game is based on "opposition rolls", i.e. a roll that takes into account a single rating for an "offensive" player versus a single rating for a "defensive" player. The probability required for a roll to work is based on this opposition roll adjusted for league normalization and park normalization.

For a walk, the opposition roll is Pitcher CON versus Batter EYE.
For a strikeout, the opposition roll is Pitcher STU versus Batter AvoidK.
For a home run, the opposition roll is Pitcher MOV versus Batter POW.

Ok, everybody probably knew that already. But for a hit vs. an out, the opposition rating is

Batter BABIP vs. Fielder Range (to determine whether fielder gets to a ball), or, in some cases, Fielder Arm.

So the pitcher has very little role in determining whether a hit ball is an out, a single, or a double/triple (double vs. triple is purely dependent on batter speed .versus park considerations)

In OOTP 21, you have great fielders at all levels of ability. The difference in fielding between the best bronze players and the best perfect players is virtually zero. (consider 68 Ozzie Smith for example). However, the ratings for POW and CON are generally much higher as the OVRs go up.

So the result is that, as you get higher OVR players across a league, the AvoidK component of CON becomes "more" important, and the POW component becomes "less" important, while the BABIP component stays roughly the same in importance.

The result is that somebody like SE 92 Ichiro is going to get very similar batting averages as they go up the ranks, since the AvoidK becomes more important at higher levels, while his low power is going to have minimal impact on BA (maybe he hits only 4 HR a year instead of 10 HR --- six less hits; while a high POW guy might get 20 HR vs. 50 HR, or 30 less hits at the highest levels).

On the other hand, somebody who has the same CON rating as Ichiro but has very high POW and relatively low AvoidK, is going to have BA decrease significantly as they ascend levels.

Let's take a real-life example from one of my teams.

SE Mike Piazza (96) has 95 CON, 108 POW, 67 AvoidK
SE Ichiro Suzuki (92) has 96 CON, 58 POW, 86 AvoidK

Piazza, in 5 years of Diamond League play, has a lifetime .237 average
Ichiro, over the same period, has a lifetime .309 average

The difference is incredible, even though their CON is almost exactly the same.

Now Piazza might get some decrement since my park factors favor lefties. Let's take a different example. On the same team, I have lefty Ted Williams (100) at DH. CON: 100, POW: 119, AvoidK: 70.

His career Diamond stats: .274 BA, even though his AvoidK is still pretty good, and his CON is higher than Suzuki's.
__________________






Last edited by allenciox; 06-25-2020 at 11:32 AM.
allenciox is offline   Reply With Quote