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IRL and in OOTP, one-run games tend to be one of the clearest manifestations of luck. And, it seems to take a couple season to even out. So one season, you'll have a great record and one season it will suck. just by nature, teams tend to play 50-50 in close games.
On an unrelated note, I've often pondered what it would be like to give game's a "RNG" number related to the unlikelihood of the outcome. This would give you a relative unluckiness rating based on your probability of winning given your players, how far outside his typical performance level your pitcher fell and how often your guys failed to get a hit when making contact.
I've had tourneys where I had 6 starters have BABIP below .200. I few days later they're the top hitting team in the tourney. Which is the greater outlier? I'd love to have some kind of indication... it's the one thing that's easier about the distribution of talent.... When his Maddux shuts you out and yours exits after two innings, I'm pretty confident my team drew the unluckier numbers....
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