Quote:
Originally Posted by DonMattingly
When you say MOV doesn't scale, that helps make the argument that at lower levels POW works and it stops at higher levels when MOV comes to town.
At any rate if I get the time I might try a single player league to see what happens. One comment by one Dev doesn't convince me.
By that theory if I make a league with all lower power hitters and stud high MOV pitchers, the hitters should all hit more homers than their ratings say they should right?
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If you think that the HR totals all match 2010 numbers at all levels by coincidence, you are kind of suggesting that the rate at which pitchers get better MOV matches the rate at which hitters get better POW. My comment was to point out that there's no reason we expect this to be true, and in particular the Live SEs (which start to appear in big numbers in silver and gold) have way more POW than the corresponding pitchers have MOV, so there should be a difference in leaguewide HR rate between diamond, gold, silver, bronze, iron, etc. because there is this imbalance between when the high-power hitters become available and the high-movement pitchers become available. But there isn't; the leaguewide HR rate is the same everywhere.
Yes, it's true that if you have a bunch of high-MOV pitchers and low-POW hitters in a league that is using a stat normalization, the low-POW guys will hit more HRs than you'd expect.
You should think of power (and eye, and all stats really) as buying you a portion of the league's HR/BB/K totals. In some lower leagues, the POW you spend will get you a lot of HR probability because the other batters are more POW-poor and your POW looks like a lot compared to their meager amounts. Your Klein and Kiner look really wealthy compared to the live silvers and golds you see in your Rookie league.
In higher leagues, everyone's way more POW-wealthy, so your same amount of POW buys a smaller slice of the league-wide-HR pie. Kiner is now not so wealthy; compared to Yaz, Ruth, Ted Williams, Yogi, he's not so comparatively rich any more. So his POW which once bought him a lot of HR% now doesn't do the job because there are so many other high-power guys who need to be fed as well. The pitchers with their MOV stats do something similar: The guy who has low MOV has to eat a larger share of the league's HRs, while the guy with high MOV gets to avoid it more. But the two stats don't actually interact in a league-wide way. In other words, it doesn't matter if the average MOV is 50 or 100, the same procedure applies and the same amount of HRs will be doled out to the group regardless. This is what is meant when people say a "league normalization" is used: that, by definition, the leaguewide average POW and MOV amounts won't affect the total number of HRs given out. That is, the number of expected HRs is "normalized" to match a certain amount, roughly.
And the comments aren't coming from one dev, it's coming from looking at the data in the league. I promise if you look at your leaguewide HR totals this week, it will match 2010 to within 5% or so (probably tighter than that). You can repeat this analysis if you want, but all the questions you're asking have already been looked at and answered by the members of the community combing over data. This isn't some guess we're all making because it feels right (kinda like you're doing now), we all have come to this conclusion because that's what the data showed.