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Nick's Blog Post #14 - 2020 Season Preview
March 31, 2020

We finally made it to Opening Day 2020! I'll quickly run through the Opening Day roster and discuss our expectations for the season, but first let's recap how Spring Training went.

Spring Training Recap

We performed fairly well as a team during Spring Training, finishing with a respectable 14-14 record. Of course, in our stacked division, that was only good enough to have us tie for last place, but what can you do. On a player-by-player level, it was a mixed bag, with some guys shining bright and others struggling mightily. That has led to some unexpected results when it comes to our Opening Day roster, as we'll discuss next.

Opening Day Lineup

C: James McCann (29) / Alex Avila (33)

The two former Tigers catchers, who we signed in the offseason, managed to temporarily stave off their challenger Meibrys Viloria (23) who had a lackluster ST (71 wRC+, albeit in just 38 PAs) and will start the year in Triple-A. We added another wrinkle to the competition, though - Wellington Castillo (32) was a non-roster invite and is currently in our minors with a deal that will pay him $1M if he's promoted by the end of April, and will grant him free agency otherwise. Castillo had a brutal 2019 season but we still think he has enough left in the tank to be a contributor, and if Avila falters to start the season we might roll with Castillo in his place.

1B: Ryan McMahon (25)

This spot wasn't up for grabs, and we are hoping McMahon can pick up where he left off last season (126 OPS+ in 65 games with us post-trade deadline), especially now that we're playing him at his natural position as opposed to LF where he played most of last year.

2B: Tristan Gray (24)

A dark horse candidate to make the roster heading into Spring Training, Gray showed us enough in March (95 wRC+ in 44 PAs) to convince us to start the season with him in our lineup. Keep in mind that this spot will be reclaimed once Nick Senzel's elbow heals, likely in mid-May, so this is a temporary move. Let's hope Gray makes the most of it.

SS: Orlando Arcia (25)

Arcia managed to hold onto his spot following a blistering Spring Training performance (195 wRC+ in 39 PAs), as well as our realization that Tommy Edman is still a bit green when it comes to playing SS. We'll give him more reps in Triple-A to get him more comfortable there. In the meantime it'll be Arcia manning short in the majors, but it is a fluid situation, so he shouldn't feel too secure just yet...

3B: Eugenio Suarez (28)

Our All-Star gets to start the season off manning the hot corner, but will slide over to 2B once Senzel gets healthy. We're hoping Suarez gets back to his 2018 form (145 wRC+, 5 WAR) rather than his 2019 form (112 wRC+, 2.7 WAR).

LF: Tony Kemp (28)

This is a temporary solution - if Kemp is still our starting LF by mid-season, something has gone terribly wrong. This spot will eventually be taken by Yordan Alvarez (22), but it is pretty clear to us that he needs to work out some kinks defensively. We'll give him a bit more time in Triple-A before calling him up, at which point Kemp will move to the bench role that he is better-suited for.

CF: Daz Cameron (23)

This is definitely the biggest shocker coming out of ST - we only just acquired Daz a few months ago, and given that he spent all of 2019 at Double-A, we didn't expect him to make the majors until mid-season at the earliest, and more likely next season. However, we realized pretty quickly that our assumption that Luis Gonzalez (24) would be our Opening Day CF was flawed, as he really doesn't have the defensive chops for it. He could probably play CF in a pinch, but given the limited range of our primary corner outfielders, we need a glove-first speedster out there in center, which Gonzalez is not - he also put up a 35 wRC+ in 64 PAs this spring, suggesting his bat might not be ready, either. Meanwhile, Daz had a fantastic Spring Training (147 wRC+ in 67 PAs) and he has the speed and skills to carry the outfield defensively. Our talent evaluators think he's probably ready to be a league-average centerfielder, which is more than we can say about anyone else on our roster, so here he is in our Opening Day lineup - in the leadoff spot, no less!

RF: Pablo Reyes (26)

Another temporary solution, Reyes will eventually be bumped out of the lineup and will serve as an overqualified 4th OF, but for now he's starting in right field. His 128 OPS+ in Triple-A last year, combined with his 114 wRC+ in Spring Training, give us confidence that he can be at least average at the plate while adding decent defensive and baserunning value.

DH: Jesse Winkler (26)

Winkler is one of the few holdovers from last year's Opening Day lineup, and should hopefully get closer to his 2018 form than 2019 (134 OPS+ vs. 103 OPS+). While we'd love to keep him at DH all season, he will unfortunately be forced to stumble around in the outfield soon enough, as the positionless Nate Lowe will be joining the major league roster soon enough. His 86 wRC+ was enough to scare us off from installing him as our Opening Day DH, but if he starts the season off destroying Triple-A like he did last season (155 OPS+, 25 HR, 6.3 WAR) we will be hard-pressed to keep him down there for long. His arrival, along with Alvarez's will push Winkler to the outfield and Reyes and Kemp to the bench (although Winkler struggles against lefties whereas Reyes excels against them, so we may go with a platoon approach).

BN: Enrique Hernandez (28), Jose Siri (25), Christian Arroyo (24), Alex Avila (32)

Hernandez serves as our jack-of-all-trades, with his ability to play anywhere on the diamond except catcher, and will probably earn a few starts against lefties. Siri and Arroyo, meanwhile, are just stopgaps for Reyes and Kemp, respectively, until they return to the bench, at which point Siri and Arroyo will go back to Triple-A to continue developing. Avila was signed to be our backup catcher, but he's on a short leash with several options to replace him in our high minors.

Opening Day Pitching Staff

SP1: Lucas Giolito (25)
SP2: Martin Perez (28)
SP3: Luis Castillo (27)

Our top 3 rotation slots were never in doubt, and each of these guys performed well in Spring Training (FIP- of 81, 51, and 88, respectively). We feel good about having them at the top of our rotation, and barring injury, we see no reason why they couldn't hold onto those 3 spots for the foreseeable future.

SP4: Cionel Perez (23)
SP5: Framber Valdez (26)

These two spots, as discussed previously, were a lot more contentious. We decided pretty quickly that Brett Martin (24) wouldn't be in our Opening Day rotation, and he has graciously accepted his demotion to the minors. That left Perez, Valdez, Julio Urias (23) and Dakota Hudson (25) fighting for the two spots. Urias was the underdog, but his lack of remaining option years meant that we couldn't send him to Triple-A, so we've decided to keep him in our bullpen for now as long relief - however, we may need to make some sort of move eventually, as his stuff doesn't really play up that much in a relief role. Hudson probably deserved one of these spots, but his trade value proved to be too high for us to ignore, so he is no longer with the team (more on that later). That left Perez and Valdez as the winners of the competition, but their hold on the rotation spots is far from secure. If either one falters - which Perez's 121 FIP- in ST suggests could happen - then Urias will be there to pounce, as will several of our young starters in Triple-A.

CL: Ken Giles (29)
RHP: Luke Leftwich (25)
RHP: Ian Hamilton (24)
RHP: Jacob Webb (26)
RHP: Demarcus Evans (23)
RHP: Tommy Kahnle (30)
LHP: Julio Urias (23)

Giles was just acquired recently, and is the best reliever on the team by a fairly wide margin. His grip on the closer spot feels pretty secure. Beyond him, we have a very young, inexperienced, righty-heavy bullpen, with a lot of firepower - expect plenty of strikeouts but also a ton of walks. We have some guys in the minors (including a few lefties) who can step up if any of these guys struggle, but ultimately the bullpen is not currently our strong suit. If we start looking competitive - and especially if we keep blowing late-inning leads - we may look to upgrade through trades, but for now I am content to have the current bullpen mature and develop this season alongside the rest of the team.

Trades

There's only one trade for us to report, but it's a pretty big one:

Reds receive: OF Alex Kirilloff (22)
Twins receive: SP Dakota Hudson (25), SP JB Bukauskas (23), 2B Korry Howell (21), SP Aaron Ashby (21), SP Roniel Raudes (22)

I can definitely see us being raked over the coals by the media for this one ("a 5-for-1 deal for a PROSPECT???"), but I would argue that this is exactly the kind of trade we should be seeking out. Our accelerated rebuild, just 1 year in, has put us in a position where we have a surplus of decent-to-good players who are either in the majors or very close, but a dearth of true star talent. This trade was a move to convert some of that excess good-not-great talent into star power. Hudson was one of 5 pitchers fighting for our last 2 rotation spots, as I have discussed in great detail, and is unlikely to get much better than he currently is; Bukauskas struggled last year in Double-A, and looks like his ceiling is that of a mid-to-bottom rotation arm; Ashby has some great stuff and pitched well last year but also seems likely to have homer and walk troubles, limiting his upside; Raudes is a low-minors finesse pitcher who probably won't ever miss enough bats to be a major league starter. The one wildcard is Howell, who some see as having the potential to be the next Ketel Marte with more speed, but our talent evaluators doubt his bat will even be average, much less star-level. Kiriloff, meanwhile, is a bona fide star in the making, and is as close to a sure thing as you can get. Ranked the #15 prospect in baseball heading into this upcoming season, his hit bat is projected to be up there with Jose Ramirez as one of the best in the league, and his 6'2 frame suggests the potential for more pop than he's shown so far (15 HR, .452 SLG in Double-A last year). He's excelled at every level of pro ball so far, and he'll be starting the season in Triple-A for us, but don't be surprised if he breaks into the majors at some point this year. We definitely gave up a lot of solid prospects in this deal, but it was a quantity-for-quality move that we think makes sense for us given the level and depth of talent we currently have in our organization. We'll make this type of trade as many times as we can find an agreeable trade partner!

Season Outlook

It's always dangerous to put out a bold prediction heading into a season, because there's a lot more downside than upside - if you're right, nobody will really remember or care, but if you're wrong people will make sure you never live it down. That being said, I am going to be cautiously optimistic and say that we will easily beat last season's 64-98 fiasco. I'll stop short of anything bolder than that - the general consensus is that we'll end up right around 70 wins or so, especially given how competitive the other teams in our division are looking. But the fun of a young, unproven roster like ours is that there's a lot of variability - our young guns could completely flop and barely eke out 60 wins, or they could all simultaenously catch fire and get us over .500. You can't predict baseball, and this season in particular could be a wild ride. Buckle up!