Nick's Blog Post #13 - 2019/20 Offseason Update #3
February 27, 2020
Spring is in the air - well not actually, since it's still February, but Spring Training has arrived! Before we get to that, though, let's quickly run through what's gone on during the final two months of the offseason.
Roster Moves
As expected, there was a lot less activity in January and February than there had been in the preceding months. That being said, we did make a few noteworthy moves:
- We signed IF/OF
Enrique Hernandez (28) to a 1 year deal worth $1.4 million. He's a jack of all trades whose defensive versatility makes him a valuable player, even if his bat has declined a bit (his 78 OPS+ in 2019 pales in comaprison to the 128 OPS+ he put up the previous year). He may even be our Opening Day centerfielder - but more on that later.
- We made a few trades to bolster our high-minors prospect depth, which figure to be depleted in the coming months as several of our top prospeccts graduate to the minors:
Reds receive: CF
Daz Cameron (23), RP
Eduardo Jimenez (24), RP
Jason Foley (24), RP
Gerson Moreno (24), CF
Clark Brinkman (23)
Tigers receive: 3B
Bobby Dalbec (24), RP
Brett Hanewich (25)
This was a ceiling-for-floor trade, where we traded away the higher-upside prospect in Dalbec and received a pretty sure thing in Cameron who doesn't have the star potential that Dalbec has. Dalbec looks like he could be the next
Joey Gallo, and showed immense power last year (36 homers in Double-A) but there are legitimate concerns that he won't make enough contact in the majors to tap into that power, given his strikeout rates and low contact rates. He could come to make us regret this trade, but we prefer the profile of Cameron, a top-notch athlete who runs well and will be above-average defensively in centerfield, who also hits for decent average and power while showing remarkable plate discipline - he probably won't be a star but that profile translates to a well above-average player, and he produced well enough last year in Double-A (.274/.346/.415) to start him off this year in Triple-A as a 23 year old. We also got a trio of 24-year old righty relief prospects and a glove-first athlete in Brinkman.
Reds receive: OF
Micker Adolfo (23), OF
Anderson Comas (19)
White Sox receive: 3B
Jake Lumley (24), SS
Cristopher Navarro (20), 2B
Antonio Pinero (20)
It's possible that the Sox are simply seeing something that we're missing, but this honestly looks like a robbery by us, from where I'm standing. Adolfo should help replace the power we lost in the Dalbec trade, but comes with a bit less risk given his superior ability to make contact. Comas, meanwhile, is a bit of an unknown commodity at this point - scouts are split on his hit tool, and ultimately he isn't expected to produce much power despite his 6'3 frame, but he's a solid runner and outfielder who should probably develop into a league-average hitter, if not better. On the other hand, none of the guys we gave up look like they'll ever hit well enough to make the big leagues, and while all 3 are athletes with solid infield gloves, they'd have to field like
Andrelton Simmons in order to justify their lack of performance at the plate, which we don't see happening with any of these guys. Comas and Adolfo aren't perfect prospects, and they each come with their own set of risks, but the price was so low that the risk was more than worth it.
Reds receive: RP
Yadier Alvarez (23)
Dodgers receive: 2B
Kevin Rivera (23), RP
Drew Anderson (25)
Another once-fabled Dodgers pitching prospect who is now decidedly post-hype, Alvarez is days away from turning 24 and hasn't lived up to the immense potential he was once thought to have. As you probably know by now, I find that type of player irresistible, and when we saw how cheaply L.A. was willing to give him up, we decided to pull the trigger. Rivera and Anderson came to our organization as a minor league free agent and a waiver claim, respectively, so we didn't part with anything too dear to us here. Alvarez still has the nasty stuff that led to him
signing with the Dodgers for $16 million in 2015 as a 19 year old out of Cuba. The walks continue to be an issue, however, and he struggled last year in Triple-A, with a 6.68 ERA and 6 BB/9 in 23 starts. We're going to try him out in the bullpen, as his stuff might work better there. It was a low-risk move given how little we had to trade away, so even if he doesn't pan out it's not a huge issue.
Reds receive: SS
Taylor Walls (23), 2B
Tristan Gray (23)
Rays receive: 2B
Josh VanMeter (24), 2B
Greifer Andrade (23), RP
Lachlan Wells (22), C
Hagen Owenby (22), 2B
Tanner Nishioka (25)
Walls and Gray both fall into the same category - all-around players who have no real standout tool and probably won't be stars due to a lack of power. Walls probably has a bit more upside because he's got the glove to play shortstop, while Gray has the higher floor as he's already pretty much major league ready. Both had success at Double-A last season (113 OPS+ for Walls, 98 OPS+ for Gray) and both figure to be a part of our big league infield in the near future in some capacity. On the other side of the trade, we gave up an assortment of low-ceiling org players. Given that this is the Rays we're talking about, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one or two of these guys magically turn into solid major leaguers, but we like our side of the trade better.
Reds receive: RP
Ken Giles (29)
Blue Jays receive: RP
Amir Garrett (27)
Giles will be making $9 million this year, in his final year of arbitration, so the rationale here was clear for the (needlessly) budget-conscious Jays. But the gap in talent and production between Giles and Garrett is massive - Giles put up 1.6 WAR with a 70 FIP- and 150 ERA+ in 60 IP in 2019, while Garrett scuffled his way to 0.1 WAR with a 90 ERA+ and 105 FIP- in the same number of innings. We expect some regression, given our less-than-stellar defense and Giles' relatively low home run rate in 2019 despite a previous history of giving up plenty of homers, but he instantly slots in as our closer, and should once again be one of the best relievers in baseball in 2020. On top of that, we got the Jays to agree to eat $3 million of his salary, so we're only paying $6 million, which we can definitely afford given that we purged just about every expensive player from our payroll last season - even at his reduced salary, Giles is now the 2nd most expensive player on our team (after
Eugenio Suarez) and nobody below him makes over $3 million.
League News
- In a head-scratching move, the
Marlins renamed themselves the
Miami Brigadiers and changed their colour scheme and logo to be incredibly ugly. I have no idea what this accomplishes. While they were at it they should have tried changing their owner...In conjunction with their new look, the
Brigadiers (that's gonna take a while to get used to) announced the signings of two legitimate, real life major leaguers: 1B
Jose Abreu (33, 1yr/$4M) and OF
Corey Dickerson (30, 5yr/$51M). Maybe this really is a new beginning for them!
- Elsewhere in "non-contenders signing veterans" news, SP
Drew Pomeranz (31) joined the
Orioles for 2 years at $6M/yr, and
Brian Dozier (32) signed a 2 year deal with the
Tigers worth $16M total. Not sure what the logic is there - if they wanted to flip those guys at the deadline, shouldn't they have signed them to 1 year deals to give the acquiring team more flexibility? Or do these teams think they'll be competitive within 2 years?? Either way, best of luck to all involved parties.
Spring Training Preview
Baseball is finally here, and the only thing more exciting at this time of year than Spring Training baseball itself is the position battles that occur during Spring Training. At least that's how I feel, especially this season, as we have a couple of roster spots up for grabs this spring:
Shortstop:
Orlando Arcia (25) vs.
Tommy Edman (24)
It seems a tad unfair to be putting Arcia's spot in the lineup in jeopardy immediately following his first above-average season in the majors (97 OPS+, 24 HR, 2.2 WAR in 147 games), but that's how good Edman was last year - his 120 OPS+ and 3.0 WAR in Triple-A was beyond what we expected from him when we acquired him at the start of the season, and with that he's forced his way into the conversation for the starting shortstop position. He doesn't have as much power as Arcia, but his combination of bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline are some of the best in the business. The one knock on him is that his glove profiles as more of a utility player who can play anywhere on the diamond, rather than a starting SS, but Arcia isn't exactly a defensive wizard himself, and Edman might get better with more reps there. We're not making any decisions yet, but they'll be alternating games at SS throughout Spring Training and we'll make the call once we see how they each hold up. An interesting wrinkle is what to do with Arcia if he loses the battle - he doesn't have experience at any other position, and with 3 full years of major league service and coming off a 2 WAR season we aren't about to send him down to the minors. He may become an interesting trade chip to be dangled in front of SS-needy teams as we inch closer to Opening Day...
Second Base:
Tony Kemp (28) vs.
Tristan Gray (23)
This is a temporary position battle, as the spot will ultimately be taken by
Eugenio Suarez once
Nick Senzel returns from his broken elbow in a few months. In the meantime, this job looked like it would go to Kemp without a fight, but then we acquired Gray and things got a bit murkier. Gray put up so-so numbers in Double-A last year (98 OPS+, 9 HR in 120 games) but he showed up to our facilities looking just about ready for the big leagues. Kemp, meanwhile, had a great 2019, with a 117 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR in 91 MLB games, but he was helped by an unsustainable .358 BABIP and is lighter-hitting than you would like to see from an everyday player. If Gray has a strong showing in Spring Training, we might go with him at 2B and keep Kemp in a bench utility role to start the season.
Backup Catcher:
Alex Avila (33) vs.
Meibrys Viloria (23)
Our primary catcher is definitely
James McCann - nothing short of injury will change that - but Viloria presents a legitimate challenge to Avila's spot as our backup backstop. Viloria was fantastic at Double-A last year, with a 156 OPS+ and 1.9 WAR in 55 games before we promoted him to Triple-A, where he managed a decent 0.7 WAR and 79 OPS+ in 57 games. He could probably stand to spend a bit more time in Triple-A before getting called up to the big leagues, but a strong showing in Spring Training combined with Avila showing his age (he's only 33 but catchers age in dog years) could accelerate his timeline.
4th & 5th Rotation Spots:
Dakota Hudson (25),
Cionel Perez (23),
Julio Urias (23),
Framber Valdez (25),
Brett Martin (24)
This one's a doozy - we've got 5 guys fighting over 2 spots, and that's before you consider our top two Triple-A arms (
Darwinzon Hernandez and
Jonathan Loaisiga) who would each probably get consideration for most teams' rotations. The clubhouse must be
tense. It hasn't been decided yet, but right now the favorites have to be Hudson - who struggled a bit last year but ultimately seems to have what it takes to be a major league starter - and Perez, who was pretty much league average for us last year. Valdez is arguably the best of the bunch but the combination of his nasty 3-pitch repertoire, so-so control, and moderate stamina arguably make him better-suited for the bullpen. We're fine with sending Martin to the minors, but Urias poses a bit of a challenge, as he is out of option years and we really don't want to risk losing him on waivers, but at this point he isn't one of our 5 best starters. We don't have to make any moves just yet, but something is going to have to give before Opening Day...
Next Update
Check in next month for our Spring Training wrap-up and our Reglar Season preview! Til next time!