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Nick's Blog Post #11 - 2019/20 Offseason Update #1
December 6, 2019

We've finally made it to a rebuilding GM's favourite time of the year! There's much to discuss, so let's get right into it.

Awards

Before we talk about roster moves, let's quickly go over who won this year's biggest awards:

Rookie of the Year: 1B Pete Alonso (NYM, NL), OF Kyle Tucker (HOU, AL)
Cy Young Award: Jacob deGrom (NYM, NL), Chris Sale (BOS, AL)
MVP: OF Christian Yelich (MIL, NL), SS Carlos Correa (HOU, AL)

Congratulations to all winners. Interestingly, both NL award winners were repeats from 2018, while both AL winners were first-timers.

Trades

As always, we have been very active in the trade market, making 12 trades already since the World Series ended. Most were of the minor variety, but there were a few big ones worth analyzing:

Reds receive: SP Lucas Giolito (25)
White Sox receive: OF Nomar Mazara (24), C Tyler Stephenson (23), SS Luis Bryan Lopez (19)

This trade could very easily end up blowing up in our faces, but at the same time it is the exact kind of trade we need to be able to make in order for our method of team-building to work. We paid a hefty price - Stephenson demolished Double-A pitching as a 22-year old catcher (although our scouts don't think he'll ever be anything more than a backup at the major league level), while Mazara has the tools to be an above average outfielder (although he hasn't put it all together yet and already has over 3 years of major league service time) and Lopez is an raw but intriguing middle infield prospect - but the opportunity to acquire a starter as young and as talented as Giolito doesn't come around very often, and when it does come around it's never cheap. His numbers from last season don't exactly scream "ace" (83 ERA+, 110 FIP-, 1.53 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB in 146 IP) but he instantly slots in as our best pitcher, and there's reason to believe he'll be better this year. He's only 25, and his K/9 and BB/9 both improved in 2019 vs. 2018. He had some bad luck with batted balls, allowing a .336 BABIP, which played a factor in his .818 OPS allowed. We are very excited to be bringing him in as our #1 starter, and while we will miss Mazara and Stephenson, we knew all along that we would have to give up position players to acquire top-talent pitchers, so this shouldn't come as too much of a shock.

Reds receive: SP Julio Urias (23), RP Randy Flood (23)
Dodgers receive: OF Gio Brusa (26), SP Ricky Salinas (23)

Urias was one of the biggest prospects in all of baseball until recently, but hasn't lived up to the hype. He's still just 23 years old, though, and he has the talent to become an above-average picher, so when the Dodgers expressed a willingness to let him go for cheap we had to pounce. Brusa has some pop but he is 26 years old and has never even made it to Triple-A, so I'm not losing too much sleep over giving him up. Salinas is an interesting SP prospect who pitched well this past year, but we don't see him ever really making an impact in the majors. Urias alone would have been a bargain at this price, and we also got them to throw in Flood, a live arm who could one day be a dominant lefty in our bullpen.

The additions of Urias and Giolito create a bit of a logjam in our rotation, with 7 good young starters fighting over our bottom 3 rotation spots - and that's before we bring in any veteran FAs to round it out. However, given the dearth of pitching we had in our organization last year, I would say this is a pretty good problem to have.

Reds receive: SP J.B. Bukauskas (23), OF/3B Marty Costes (23)
Astros receive: SP Tyler Mahle (25), SP Jacob Heatherly (21), 2B Cash Case (20), SP Doroteo Cuevas (19)

Bukauskas is a great example of the type of pitching prospect we target - a high-minors nearly-finished product who has the stuff to be dominant but doesn't yet have the track record of production that would make him too pricey for us to acquire. He still comes with risk - as all pitchers do - but he's a lot closer to a sure thing than a younger low-minors pitching prospect would be. That's why we don't mind giving up Heatherly and Cuevas in this deal - they may one day be starters in the majors, but so many things could go wrong between now and then that it just isn't worth the risk from our perspective. Mahle was the 6th or 7th pitcher on our depth chart last year and won't be missed too much given our newfound pitching depth, while Case looks like he'll be a utility player at best and has yet to play a game above Rookie league. Bukauskas, meanwhile, has a repertoire of 4 above-average pitches including a fastaball that can reach 96MPH, and has enough control to limit walks. He didn't perform very well in 2019, with a 121 FIP- in 130 Double-A innings, but we think he's skilled enough to start next year in Triple-A. We also picked up Costes, a guy who we see as having no real standout tool but has the potential to be an all-around solid hitter with average defense at any of the 4 corners.

Reds receive: SP Garrett Cave (23), OF Luis Eduardo Matos (17)
Giants receive: SS Jose Peraza (25), OF Austin Hays (24), IF Joseph Gilma (20)

This was a move to extract some value from Peraza - who we were going to be non-tendering anyway - and also clean up our 40-man roster a bit by moving on from Hays, who is a decent young player but would have most likely been squeezed out of our lineup given the impressive crop of prospects we'll be graduating to the majors this season. Gilma - a glove-first utility-type prospect - was the cost of doing this business, but his skillset is uninspiring and he's far enough away from the majors that this doesn't really hurt us much. In return we got Cave - an intriguing SP prospect who is a bit behind his age in terms of development but has the potential to be an average MLB starter one day - and Matos, a lottery ticket prospect who isn't even 18 yet but looks like he has the raw tools and abilities to be an All-Star. The odds of Matos reaching that potential probably aren't great, but it didn't cost us much for the chance to find out. Time will tell who wins this trade.

Reds receive: IF Brett Netzer (23), SP Denyi Reyes (23), RP Zach Schellenger (23)
Red Sox receive: 1B Dominic Smith (24)

We acquired Smith at the trade deadline for just about nothing of value, and after putting up a league-average batting line in 50 games with us, we managed to turn him into a handful of decent prospects. That alone is cause for celebration, although I must admit the prospects we got back aren't overly thrilling. Netzer is the most interesting of the bunch - he looks like he could become an above-average hitter while also flashing an above-average glove at 2nd base. If he realizes that potential he'll be a steal, but right now he is a 23 year old who has only played 2 games above High-A, so he might never reach his ceiling. Reyes looks like a back-end rotation piece at best, while Schellenger might forever be the 7th or 8th man in the bullpen. Regardless, we definitely got a lot more for Smith than we gave up for him just 6 months earlier, so we're happy with this deal.

Reds receive: OF/IF Pablo Reyes (26), SP Nick Mears (23)
Pirates receive: RP Carlos Bustamante (25)

Trading with a division rival is always an interesting proposition, but when an opportunity to get a player like Reyes arises at such a low cost, it's hard to pass up. Reyes runs well and can play just about anywhere on the diamond, but can also hit like a regular. We're a bit higher on him than the industry seems to be, and he hasn't yet proven he can do it in the majors (just 160 career MLB PAs) but we like what he did in Triple-A in 2019 (.392 OBP, 128 OPS+, 2.9 WAR in 105 games) and we think he's MLB-ready. He still has options left, so even if we're wrong and he needs more time in the minors that won't be an issue. Meanwhile, Mears looks like he could become a league-average starter, and all we had to give up for both of those guys is a low-upside minor league bullpen arm in Bustamante.

We made several other trades that were less significant, but they still warrant mention:

- We acquired 23 year old catching prospect Justin Wilson from the Yankees for 26 year old SP Clayton Blackburn and 24 year old C Chris Okey. We think Wilson has the ceiling of a starting catcher and the floor of a backup, while neither of the guys we gave up are worthy of a major league roster spot in our eyes.

- We traded IF Greg Garcia (30) and 2B Josh VanMeter (24) to the Cubs for C Caleb Knight (23). Garcia played well for us in the majors in 2019, amassing 1.2 WAR, but he's pretty replaceable, while VanMeter is arguably sub-replacement level and has pretty much reached his ceiling. Knight looks like he could become a league-average catcher with a decent amount of power, so we like our side of this trade.

- We acquired C John Hicks (30) in exchange for IF Nick Franklin (28) from the Orioles, in keeping with the theme of acquiring catchers. Hicks is a solid catcher defensively and put up a 81 OPS+ in 170 ABs last year, so while he isn't a star he can be a good backup/platoon option for us in the majors this year while we wait for our prospects to develop.

- We traded minor league RP Ronel Blanco (26) for RP Tommy Kahnle (30). Kahnle didn't have a great year in 2019, giving up a ton of walks (6 BB/9) on his way to a 100 FIP- and 98 ERA+ in 68 IP. We think his true talent is that of an above-average reliever though (his ERA+ was 168 in 2017 and 158 in 2016), and he gets a ton of strikeouts (12.8 K/9 in 2019!) and it cost us almost nothing, so we're happy to take this bet that he gets back to his old self.

Arbitration / Free Agency

The arbitration process occurred in November, and we had a few notable non-tenders, including C Erik Kratz (39), RP Michael Lorenzen (27), and 3B Maikel Franco (27). It was a shame that we couldn't get anything more out of Franco, who we had picked up at the trade deadline, but he was in line for a massive salary through arbitration and no other team wanted to take on that obligation.

We ended up going to arbitration with SS Orlando Arcia, SP Alex Reyes and C Jett Bandy and won all 3 of our cases. Hopefully the players don't hold it against us - we think our offers were fair, and evidently the arbitration judges agreed with us.

In terms of free agency, the Winter Meetings haven't occurred yet so there's still time for more big splashes, but a few of the biggest names have already found new homes:

- SP Gerritt Cole, the crown jewel of this year's free agent class, was shockingly signed by the Mets for $180 million over 6 years. That rotation was already one of the best in the league and now it gets even better. The craziest part is that the Mets, of all teams, are suddenly spending money now...

- The best hitter in this year's class, 3B Anthony Rendon, landed with the Cardinals for $20 million per year over the next 5 years. He's joined by RP Craig Kimbrel, who they signed for $25.5 million over 3 years ($8.5M/yr). STL isn't exactly known for signing big free agents, so this came as a bit of a shock. If this turns into a trend we might have to petition the league to move us to a different division...

- SP Hyun-Jin Ryu had a career year at the perfect time, putting up 5.5 WAR right before becoming a free agent, and cashed in with a 5 year, $115 million deal from the Angels. As a 32 year old with an injury history, it might not be long before LA regrets this one.

- Speaking of regrettable deals, SS Didi Gregorius landed a $135 million (!) dollar contract that will have him playing on the Brewers for the next 7 (!) years. You can't fault the team for making moves to strengthen their team to defend their World Series title, but I'm not sure this is the way to do it. Gregorius is 29 and is coming off a 1.5 WAR season, so either they're expecting massive improvement in his age-30 season or they're happy with paying about $15 million per WAR. Best of luck to them in either case.

- Other notable signings include SP Dallas Keuchel to the Phillies ($28 million over 2 years), C Francisco Cervelli to the Red Sox ($40 million over 4 years), and SP Rick Porcello to the Dodgers ($15 million over 2 years)

- The top remaining free agents include OF J.D. Martinez, OF Khris Davis, OF Nelson Cruz, 3B Matt Carpenter, 3B Mike Moustakas, 3B Nick Castellanos, 3B Josh Donaldson, and C Yasmani Grandal. A couple former Reds also remain, including 2B Scooter Gennet, SS Jose Iglesias, OF Yasiel Puig, and OF Matt Kemp. This winter is once again shaping up to be a long one for bat-first corner outfielders and third basemen.

Next Update

Check back next month for news on what happens at the upcoming Winter Meetings, as well as the results of the Rule 5 Draft. Til next time!