Interesting question. It really all depends on how much randomness (or how sure you want to be).
This article about possible shortened seasons gives some numbers÷
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much...horter-season/
Given a full 162 game season the teams with the highest playoff expectation are the Dodgers 99%, Yankees 90%, and Astros 84%. With an 81 game season those numbers fall to 71%, 63% and 59%
On the other end, the teams with the lowest probability of reaching the playoffs are the Tigers, Mariners and Orioles at less than 0.1%. With the 81 game season that increases to 6%, 5% and 2%