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Nick's Blog Post #10 - Playoffs Recap (October 2019)
October 23, 2019

Playoffs Recap

Apologies are due to the world champion Brewers, who I completely underestimated in my playoff predictions in the last post. Not only did they make the World Series - they won it in 5 games, establishing their dominance over the runner-up Astros and the rest of the league. The signs of their superiority were definitely there from the start, given that they had the most regular season wins in the MLB and they have the best player this side of Mike Trout in World Series MVP Christian Yelich, so my only remaining defense for not believing in them is that I simply didn't want to believe that the best team in baseball resides in our division - it's too scary a thought to bear.

The rest of the playoffs had some surprises throughout - the Indians swept the Yankees in the ALDS, which I definitely didn't see coming. As well, the Cardinals made it out of the Wildcard round and took the eventual champion Brewers to an elimination Game 5.

Prospect Performance - 2019 Season

Triple-A

- 1B Nate Lowe had one of the most impressive Triple-A seasons in recent memory, slashing .330/.424/.550 (155 OPS+) along with 25 HR in 615 PAs, resulting in 5.0 WAR. He led the league in WAR and OPS and was just .017 batting average points away from the Triple Crown. He has obviously done more than enough to earn a promotion to the majors, and we can't wait to see what he can do on the Reds next season.

- IF/OF Nick Solak (24), IF/OF Tommy Edman (24), OF Yordan Alvarez (22), and OF Luis Gonzalez (24) all put up impressive numbers in 400 to 600 Triple-A PAs, ranging from 120 OPS+ to 140 OPS+. They all deserve a shot at playing in the majors next year, which is why it will be hard for a guy like Mazara to earn a spot in our outfield. This glut of high-minors talent is a great problem to have, but we will eventually need to figure out what to do about it.

- IF Nick Senzel (24) had a snake-bitten season, missing nearly half the season due to various injuries, including a broken elbow suffered in September that will keep him out until next May. Despite that, he still managed a 155 OPS+ and 2.5 WAR in just 75 games, and looks like he'll be a bona fide star in the majors - if he can make it there in one piece.

- Speaking of stars, we have some high-potential arms in our high minors who pitched well in 2019: Darwinzon Hernandez (22) posted a 115 ERA+ and a 99 FIP- in 115 Triple-A innings - impressive stuff for a 22 year old - while Jonathan Loaisiga (24) managed a solid 117 ERA+ and 80 FIP- with nearly a strikeout per inning (8.7 K/9) in 146 innings in Triple-A. Corbin Martin (23) also looked good, with a 99 ERA+, 93 FIP-, and 8.5 K/9 in 132 Triple-A innings. Those 3 starters have a chance to compete for spots in our major league rotation, and could provide an instant upgrade over some of the guys we've been throwing out there every 5 days this season.

- RP Jimmy Webb (26) looked like our closer of the future, pitching to the tune of a 218 ERA+ and 73 FIP- with 13.3 K/9 in 49 IP in Triple-A. He also racked up 35 saves, showing that most - if not all - of that impressive production came in high-leverage situations. His performance was enough to win him the International League Reliever of the Year Award. He'll definitely be in our major league bullpen next season, and could even be the closer depending on how things go in Spring Training.

Double-A

- C Tyler Stephenson (23) was the surprise of the year, putting up monster numbers in his age-22 season in Double-A. Our scouts see him as having backup-level potential, but his .299/.410/.468 (league-leading 144 OPS+, 4.9 WAR) stat line as a catcher says otherwise. We're hoping this breakout is indicative of his true talent level.

- 3B Bobby Dalbec (24) was also a pleasant surprise this year. It is well known that Dalbec has power, but he showed that he can also make contact from time to time, with a .252/.344/.528 line (139 OPS+) and a league-high 24 homers in just 79 games after we acquired him in June. Hopefully he can make enough contact at the major league level to be able to tap into his immense power - only time will tell.

- SS Domingo Leyba (24) had a year for the ages (almost) - he had an OPS+ of 186 in 53 games with Arizona's Double-A affiliate, then came to us in a trade and posted a 197 OPS+ in 31 games before tearing a back muscle in July. He was on pace for a historic season, and we're sad for him that he didn't get to finish it, but we can't wait for him to get back on the field next season and hopefully pick up right where he left off.

- CF T.J. Friedel (24) looks like a star in the making, with 5 above-average tools and the production to match. He's a bit old for Double-A, but it's hard to argue with the results: .289/.384/.391 (116 OPS+) and above-average defense in the outfield resulted in 2.6 WAR in just 94 games, following a 36 game stint in High-A in which he posted a 137 OPS+ and 1.7 WAR. Next year he'll get a chance to prove himself against tougher competiton in Triple-A.

- SPs Jackson Kowar (22) and Garret Whitlock (23) both had productive seasons, turning in above-average performances over 130 - 140 IP. Kowar didn't get a ton of strikeouts (6 K/9) but did a great job of limiting walks and homers on his way to a 139 ERA+ / 92 FIP- / 2.5 WAR, season, while Whitlock put up more Ks but had some bad luck (.357 BABIP) in a 80 ERA+ / 95 FIP- / 2.2 WAR season. Both will be starting in Triple-A next season, and hopefully will be in the majors before long!

Single-A / High-A

- C K.J. Harrison (23) had a monster year across Single-A and High-A, slashing .361/.430/.560 (167 OPS+, 4.1 WAR) in 344 PAs. He's admittedly a bit old for the level, so we'll have to see how he does against tougher competition next year, but right now he looks like a stud.

- OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (19) looks like a prodigy, with a 139 OPS+ and 2.3 WAR in just 296 PAs, all as a teenager. He'll most likely start next season at Double-A, so keep an eye out to see if he can keep producing at such a young age as he climbs the ranks.

- OF Cole Roederer (20) is another young gun punching above his weight. Having just turned 20 a week ago (happy birthday!), he spent his age-19 season tearing up Low-A and Single-A, with a .364/.442/.569 slash line along with 7 HR and 5 SB in just 330 PAs, good for a 162 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR across both levels. He also looks like he has the tools to stick in center field, making him an incredibly valuable all-around prospect. We'll probably start him off in High-A next year, and who knows where he'll end the season!

- SP Aaron Ashby (21) seemed to be mentioned in my updates nearly every month due to outstanding performance. His full-season numbers were great, with an 83 FIP-, 128 ERA+ 3.0 K/BB ratio, and 3.1 WAR in 137 innings between Single-A and High-A. I'm not sure he has much left to prove in the Single-A leagues, so expect him to be in Double-A next season.

- Highly touted prospect SS Jelfry Marte failed to live up to expectations, posting a lowly 71 OPS+ in 350 PAs in Single-A. He's only 18, so we might have rushed him a bit. We'll let him try Single-A again next year and hope we get a better outcome.

Rookie League

- CF Joerlin De Los Santos (19) bounced back after he was demoted following a shaky start to the the season in Single-A, producing 2.4 WAR with a 126 OPS+ in 72 Rookie League games. We'll try to bump him up to Single-A again to start next season.

- CF Yunior Garcia (18) obliterated Rookie League pitching in 2019, with an incredible 185 wRC+ and 5 WAR in just 65 games. He was absolutely unstoppable, and will definitely be in Single-A next year despite being just 18 years old.

- OF Mike Siani (20) has become very intriguing to us. A 4th round draft pick in 2018, he's a 5-tool athlete who figured out Rookie League pitching to the tune of a 136 OPS+ and 1.5 WAR in 50 games. He was flying a bit under the radar after an unspectacular first season of pro ball last year, but now our scouts see him as one of the top prospects in our organization, if not all of baseball.

- OF Diego Hernandez (18) and IF Jeans Garcia (18) both continue to look like future stars, each putting up 2 WAR in less than 70 games with above-average batting stats (140 wRC+ for Hernandez, 120 for Garcia). Both are still so young and raw that it would be irresponsible to read too much into their outperformance, but it's definitely a positive sign that they're hitting so well.

- 3B Tim Hinkle (19), our 1st round pick this past June, had a season to forget - his wRC+ was just 55, and he only blasted 2 homers in 233 plate appearances. We're choosing to not overreact to it, but it's definitely not a great first impression.

Next Update

That's probably enough ink spilled about our farm system for now. Look for next month's update to be action-packed with all kinds of trades and other roster moves now that the offseason has begun!