The ratings of live cards are based on offseason projections for how well they'll do this season (from ZiPS, I believe). So, at least until games start to be played and we start to see real-life performance from these players, the projections dictate the card ratings. In this case, ZiPS predicts that Kirby Yates will regress to his career mean HR/9, hence the mediocre movement on the card.
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