OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Long Overdue: Rebuilding the 2019 Reds (OOTP 2020)

vigilante225 · 05-18-2020, 07:22 PM

Nick's Blog Post #5 - June 2019
June 30, 2019
28-54, 5th in NL Central, 23 GB

Here's a look at what happened during a very busy June - apologies in advance for the massive post!

Team Performance

If you thought we played poorly in May, just wait til you hear what happened in June! Our 7-18 record for the month pretty much speaks for itself. We now sit 23 games back of the first-place Brewers, with a the 2nd worst win-loss record and third worst run differential (-127) in the MLB. The only team that is definitively worse than us is the White Sox, with their 23-60 record and an incredible -182 run differential. Hopefully their miserable performance will help keep us out of the national headlines.

Somehow we still rank 5th in the NL in home runs, and 4th in base running value. Just about every other category is a nightmare, though, so the less that's said about that, the better.

Our one notable series worth mentioning was the recent 3-game series against a very good Cubs team, which we managed to win 2-1 (never mind that the run differential in our 2 wins was a total of 3, while we lost the other game by 9). Before that, we hadn't won a series since we swept 3 games against the A's in mid-May, so it was a nice morale-booster to beat a division rival twice in a row in front of our (rapidly diminishing) home crowd.

Player Performance

Hot

- IF Eugenio Suarez stayed hot with 7 homers and a .478 slugging % in June. He's currently in second place in the All-Star voting race at 2B, and is the only member of the Reds with a shot at getting in via fan vote this year, so don't forget to vote for him daily!

- DH Jesse Winkler finally showed some signs of life, slashing .278/.360/.412 with 3 homers in June. We've also started playing him in the outfield more regularly, where he is decidedly below-average but slowly improving.

- CL Amir Garrett had a solid month, converting 4 of his 5 save opportunities and allowing 0 runs in 7 of his 9 appearances, while striking out 13 batters in 9 innings. It would be nice if we could get him more than 5 save opportunities per month, but that's life as a closer on a rebuilding team I suppose.

Not

- 2B Scooter Gennett returned from a nasty groin strain that kept him out all season to this point, which is great news - however, in his 10 games this season, he's managed a paltry .225/.244/.325 slash line without any homers. Let's hope he turns things around quickly, especially with the trade deadline coming up...

- OF Nomar Mazara was borderline unplayable this past month, with a putrid .157/.245/.326 line in 102 PAs. I miss the April version of him that made it into the monthly update as a hot performer.

- SP Alex Reyes finally broke my spirit, forcing us to send him down to AAA following a disastrous 4 starts in which he put up an astronomical 15.43 ERA and a 2.93 WHIP in just 14 innings. His ERA on the season is now 10.59, with an 0-8 record and just 60 innings across 14 starts. It might still be too soon to tell, but making that trade for him doesn't look like such a great move right now...

Prospect Performance

- OF Yordan Alvarez (22, AAA) continues to look like an absolute stud, slashing .356/.444/.633 with 5 HR in 108 PAs in June. He has a 170 OPS+ on the season in AAA, despite only turning 22 a few days ago. The future is bright for him!

- 1B Nate Lowe (23, AAA) also continued to impress in June, launching 7 homers with a .310/.410/.610 slash line in 117 PAs.

- OF Luis Gonzalez (23, AA) sizzled in June, with a .905 OPS and 4 stolen bases in 113 PAs. We've been trying him out in CF to see if his athleticism and defensive instincts can cut it there, but his bat could still make him a major-league caliber corner outfielder if not.

- OF Bren Spillane (22, A+), our 3rd round pick in 2018, has been impressive recently with a .296/.410/.520 slash line and 6 homers in 117 PAs in June. He's been great all season and could be in AA by the end of the season.

- SP Aaron Ashby (21, A) baffled hitters in June, putting up a sparkling 1.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 29 innings across 6 starts. He's been the best-performing pitcher in our minor league system, so we're promoting him to High-A starting in July.

Draft

- The Orioles used the 1st overall pick on 22-year old college pitcher Juan Castillo, who looks like an absolute stud. He hasn't signed yet, so that's a situation to keep an eye on.

- We used our first round pick (7th overall) on 19 year old high school OF/3B Tim Hinkle. He isn't super athletic, but he has a great arm so defensively he'll be solid in a corner position. His bat, though, is something else - our scouting team sees him as having the potential to become something similar to Justin Turner as a hitter - a .300/.400/.550 type hitter who could be a perennial All-Star. Given that he's just 19 years old, there's a long way to go in his development before he gets there, but we definitely have high hopes for him.

- Our 2nd round pick was Mike Caldwell, an 18 year old starter with the potential to develop nasty stuff. Given my stated strategy in a previous post, it's unlikely that he ever pitches in a Reds uniform, but I think he'll have a good amount of trade value if we develop him properly over the next few years.

- Our 3rd round pick was Rodolfo Pacheco, an 18 year old 2nd baseman. He's got some exciting tools, and a great makeup, so we could see him turning into a solid major leaguer one day.

- Our 4th round pick was unfortunately wasted, as we were not able to successfully sign the player we picked. 18 year old OF Sean Thornburg was a first-round talent who fell in the draft due to signability concerns, and we decided to risk our 4th round pick on him. Regrettably we were not able to agree to terms with him so he will be heading to college.

Trades

We made 7 trades in June, so I will try to be brief in my write-up of each trade. Hopefully you can make it all the way through this update before the July update comes out!

Reds receive C KJ Harrison (21)
Nationals receive SP Kevin Gausman (28), cash

We made a move here to address the biggest hole in our minor league system - the lack of catcher prospects - while giving up very little. Ownership probably didn't love this move, as we retained 90% of Gausman's $9 million salary, but we're still well below budget and his contract comes off the books at the end of the season. Harrison has the potential to be an average receiver with an above-average bat, and a ton of power. He's in Single-A right now and has been absolutely crushing it there so we may move him up in the near future. Not a bad return for half a year of a mediocre starting pitcher.

Reds receive C Domingo Leyba (23)
Diamondbacks receive SS Miguel Alejandro Hernandez (20)

We heard through the grapevine that the D-backs were open to moving Leyba, who we see as a near-ready prospect who can be a serviceable regular or a super-utility infielder within a few years, so we pounced. In exchange, we gave up a Rookie-level infield prospect who profiles as a lesser version of Leyba in the eyes of our scouts. Leyba is crushing Double-A right now and could be in the majors by early next season.

Reds receive 3B Bobby Dalbec (23)
Diamondbacks receive SP Tanner Roark (32), cash

This trade came at an incredibly low price from a baseball standpoint, but pretty high financial cost. We're covering 100% of Roark's remaining salary for the season, which is considerable given that he's making $10 million this year. We think it's worth it though, because Dalbec looks like the second coming of Joey Gallo. Usually I prefer to trade for guys who can hit their way on base rather than sluggers with low batting averages, but Dalbec's power was irresistible, especially at this price. Right now he's slashing .314/.398/.558 with 6 homers in just 20 games at Double-A since the trade, so he is showing some ability to get hits, even if it is a small sample size.

Reds receive SP Cionel Perez (23), 1B Seth Beer (22)
Astros receive SP Alex Wood (28), RP David Hernandez (34)

Some might see this as an underwhelming return for a solid young veteran pitcher like Wood, but keep in mind that he's hitting free agency in a couple of months. Plus, the guys we got back are solid - Perez looks like he could be a solid mid-rotation starter, and he's already in the majors pitching fairly well at just 23 years old, while Beer was a first round pick in 2018 who looks like he could be a middle-of-the-order slugger sometime soon, albeit with limited defensive or baserunning value.

Reds receive 1B Dominic Smith (24), RP Bryce Montes De Oca (23)
Mets receive 2B Manny Jefferson (24), 2B Dewins Verbel (19), OF Matt Szczur (29)

Smith is a post-hype prospect with questions around his character - in other words, the perfect buy-low candidate for a rebuilding team like us. We still think he has the tools to be an above-average hitter in the MLB, and will give him the opportunity to prove it. It cost us very little - Szczur was a waiver pickup from earlier in the season, while Jefferson and Verbel both have some potential but we don't think either of them are likely to become valuable major leaguers. We also managed to extract Montes De Oca in the trade, a high-upside power pitcher whose 100MPH fastball could be coming to a major league bullpen near you before long.

Reds receive C Meibrys Viloria (22), OF Diego Hernandez (18), OF Brewer Hicklen (23), SP Jackson Kowar (22)
Royals receive SP Lucas Sims (25), 2B Alejo Lopez (23), OF Miles Gordon (21), 3B Brantley Bell (24)

Reds receive SP Jonathan Loaisiga (24), SP Garret Whitlock (23), 2B Dionys Vallejo (19), OF Antonio Cabello (18), OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (18)
Yankees receive SP Jose Rafael Lopez (25), OF Aristides Aquino (25), OF Narciso Crook (23)

These two prospects-for-prospects trades may seem a bit odd, so let me provide some context. Lucas Sims and Jose Rafael Lopez were the two most valuable pieces we gave up here, which may seem odd given that they're both 25 years old and still in the low-minors. However, both have been destroying the competition (2.56 ERA and 13.3 K/9 for Sims and 1.73 ERA and 8.0 K/9 for Lopez) but both have been in High-A this year and weren't really seen by us as high-upside prospects heading into the season. However, I guess these teams saw something they liked in these performances, and were willing to pay up for them. I won't look a gift horse in the mouth - these trades are somehwat reminiscent of the Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven Souza trade that worked out great for the team that was trading a relatively unremarkable prospect who had a career year as a 25 year old in the minors. Let's hope I'm right!

There were a lot of prospects that came back to us in these two trades, so here's a quick profile of each one:

- Meibrys Viloria (22): combines solid receiving skills, contact and plate discipline with a decent amount of power, has been crushing Double-A, instantly becomes one of our top two or three catching prospects.
- OF Diego Hernandez (18): lots of development to do but has the talent to become one of the most complete hitters in the league, according to our scouts; currently in Rookie league.
- OF Brewer Hicklen (23): incredible speed, 6'2 frame gives him potential to develop elite power along with good approach at the plate - could be an above-average 5 tool outfielder but has struggled in Double-A this year; currently in High-A.
- SP Jackson Kowar (22): doing well at Double-A, has 3 pitches including an 80-grade changeup; might give up a decent amount of homers but looks like a future mid-rotation arm.
- SP Jonathan Loaisiga (24): the Yankees have been trying to move him all season but we like his potential; has 3 plus pitches, impressive velocity (can hit 98MPH) and doesn't give up many walks; home runs are a weakness but should still be an average starter or better in his prime; currently in Triple-A but could be in the majors by next year.
- SP Garret Whitlock (23): potential to be a league average starter, with 3 solid pitches, can reach 95MPH; has had success at Double-A this season.
- 2B Dionys Vallejo (19): has the potential to become a well-rounded hitter with solid defense at 2B or 3B, but lacks the athleticism to play SS; lottery ticket type prospect in Rookie league.
- OF Antonio Cabello (18): similar to Hernandez (profiled above), looks like a potential All-Star but still very raw; played well enough in Rookie league last year to earn a spot in Single-A this season.
- OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (18): another lottery ticket prospect, doesn't have quite as much talent or potential as Cabello or Hernandez but still could become an above-average outfielder and hitter if he reaches his ceiling; currently in Single-A.

Next Update

I know this was a long update, but be forewarned - next month's could be even longer! In just a few days the international free agent signing period will begin, and we expect to be quite active in that market as we look to continue to build up our farm. After that, of course, is the trading deadline at the end of the month - we expect it to be quite spicy for us, given that we still have a handful of veterans on our roster - including the impending FA Scooter Gennett.

Til next time!

05-18-2020, 07:22 PM	#6
vigilante225 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 127	Nick's Blog Post #5 - June 2019 June 30, 2019 28-54, 5th in NL Central, 23 GB Here's a look at what happened during a very busy June - apologies in advance for the massive post! Team Performance If you thought we played poorly in May, just wait til you hear what happened in June! Our 7-18 record for the month pretty much speaks for itself. We now sit 23 games back of the first-place Brewers, with a the 2nd worst win-loss record and third worst run differential (-127) in the MLB. The only team that is definitively worse than us is the White Sox, with their 23-60 record and an incredible -182 run differential. Hopefully their miserable performance will help keep us out of the national headlines. Somehow we still rank 5th in the NL in home runs, and 4th in base running value. Just about every other category is a nightmare, though, so the less that's said about that, the better. Our one notable series worth mentioning was the recent 3-game series against a very good Cubs team, which we managed to win 2-1 (never mind that the run differential in our 2 wins was a total of 3, while we lost the other game by 9). Before that, we hadn't won a series since we swept 3 games against the A's in mid-May, so it was a nice morale-booster to beat a division rival twice in a row in front of our (rapidly diminishing) home crowd. Player Performance Hot - IF Eugenio Suarez stayed hot with 7 homers and a .478 slugging % in June. He's currently in second place in the All-Star voting race at 2B, and is the only member of the Reds with a shot at getting in via fan vote this year, so don't forget to vote for him daily! - DH Jesse Winkler finally showed some signs of life, slashing .278/.360/.412 with 3 homers in June. We've also started playing him in the outfield more regularly, where he is decidedly below-average but slowly improving. - CL Amir Garrett had a solid month, converting 4 of his 5 save opportunities and allowing 0 runs in 7 of his 9 appearances, while striking out 13 batters in 9 innings. It would be nice if we could get him more than 5 save opportunities per month, but that's life as a closer on a rebuilding team I suppose. Not - 2B Scooter Gennett returned from a nasty groin strain that kept him out all season to this point, which is great news - however, in his 10 games this season, he's managed a paltry .225/.244/.325 slash line without any homers. Let's hope he turns things around quickly, especially with the trade deadline coming up... - OF Nomar Mazara was borderline unplayable this past month, with a putrid .157/.245/.326 line in 102 PAs. I miss the April version of him that made it into the monthly update as a hot performer. - SP Alex Reyes finally broke my spirit, forcing us to send him down to AAA following a disastrous 4 starts in which he put up an astronomical 15.43 ERA and a 2.93 WHIP in just 14 innings. His ERA on the season is now 10.59, with an 0-8 record and just 60 innings across 14 starts. It might still be too soon to tell, but making that trade for him doesn't look like such a great move right now... Prospect Performance - OF Yordan Alvarez (22, AAA) continues to look like an absolute stud, slashing .356/.444/.633 with 5 HR in 108 PAs in June. He has a 170 OPS+ on the season in AAA, despite only turning 22 a few days ago. The future is bright for him! - 1B Nate Lowe (23, AAA) also continued to impress in June, launching 7 homers with a .310/.410/.610 slash line in 117 PAs. - OF Luis Gonzalez (23, AA) sizzled in June, with a .905 OPS and 4 stolen bases in 113 PAs. We've been trying him out in CF to see if his athleticism and defensive instincts can cut it there, but his bat could still make him a major-league caliber corner outfielder if not. - OF Bren Spillane (22, A+), our 3rd round pick in 2018, has been impressive recently with a .296/.410/.520 slash line and 6 homers in 117 PAs in June. He's been great all season and could be in AA by the end of the season. - SP Aaron Ashby (21, A) baffled hitters in June, putting up a sparkling 1.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 29 innings across 6 starts. He's been the best-performing pitcher in our minor league system, so we're promoting him to High-A starting in July. Draft - The Orioles used the 1st overall pick on 22-year old college pitcher Juan Castillo, who looks like an absolute stud. He hasn't signed yet, so that's a situation to keep an eye on. - We used our first round pick (7th overall) on 19 year old high school OF/3B Tim Hinkle. He isn't super athletic, but he has a great arm so defensively he'll be solid in a corner position. His bat, though, is something else - our scouting team sees him as having the potential to become something similar to Justin Turner as a hitter - a .300/.400/.550 type hitter who could be a perennial All-Star. Given that he's just 19 years old, there's a long way to go in his development before he gets there, but we definitely have high hopes for him. - Our 2nd round pick was Mike Caldwell, an 18 year old starter with the potential to develop nasty stuff. Given my stated strategy in a previous post, it's unlikely that he ever pitches in a Reds uniform, but I think he'll have a good amount of trade value if we develop him properly over the next few years. - Our 3rd round pick was Rodolfo Pacheco, an 18 year old 2nd baseman. He's got some exciting tools, and a great makeup, so we could see him turning into a solid major leaguer one day. - Our 4th round pick was unfortunately wasted, as we were not able to successfully sign the player we picked. 18 year old OF Sean Thornburg was a first-round talent who fell in the draft due to signability concerns, and we decided to risk our 4th round pick on him. Regrettably we were not able to agree to terms with him so he will be heading to college. Trades We made 7 trades in June, so I will try to be brief in my write-up of each trade. Hopefully you can make it all the way through this update before the July update comes out! Reds receive C KJ Harrison (21) Nationals receive SP Kevin Gausman (28), cash We made a move here to address the biggest hole in our minor league system - the lack of catcher prospects - while giving up very little. Ownership probably didn't love this move, as we retained 90% of Gausman's $9 million salary, but we're still well below budget and his contract comes off the books at the end of the season. Harrison has the potential to be an average receiver with an above-average bat, and a ton of power. He's in Single-A right now and has been absolutely crushing it there so we may move him up in the near future. Not a bad return for half a year of a mediocre starting pitcher. Reds receive C Domingo Leyba (23) Diamondbacks receive SS Miguel Alejandro Hernandez (20) We heard through the grapevine that the D-backs were open to moving Leyba, who we see as a near-ready prospect who can be a serviceable regular or a super-utility infielder within a few years, so we pounced. In exchange, we gave up a Rookie-level infield prospect who profiles as a lesser version of Leyba in the eyes of our scouts. Leyba is crushing Double-A right now and could be in the majors by early next season. Reds receive 3B Bobby Dalbec (23) Diamondbacks receive SP Tanner Roark (32), cash This trade came at an incredibly low price from a baseball standpoint, but pretty high financial cost. We're covering 100% of Roark's remaining salary for the season, which is considerable given that he's making $10 million this year. We think it's worth it though, because Dalbec looks like the second coming of Joey Gallo. Usually I prefer to trade for guys who can hit their way on base rather than sluggers with low batting averages, but Dalbec's power was irresistible, especially at this price. Right now he's slashing .314/.398/.558 with 6 homers in just 20 games at Double-A since the trade, so he is showing some ability to get hits, even if it is a small sample size. Reds receive SP Cionel Perez (23), 1B Seth Beer (22) Astros receive SP Alex Wood (28), RP David Hernandez (34) Some might see this as an underwhelming return for a solid young veteran pitcher like Wood, but keep in mind that he's hitting free agency in a couple of months. Plus, the guys we got back are solid - Perez looks like he could be a solid mid-rotation starter, and he's already in the majors pitching fairly well at just 23 years old, while Beer was a first round pick in 2018 who looks like he could be a middle-of-the-order slugger sometime soon, albeit with limited defensive or baserunning value. Reds receive 1B Dominic Smith (24), RP Bryce Montes De Oca (23) Mets receive 2B Manny Jefferson (24), 2B Dewins Verbel (19), OF Matt Szczur (29) Smith is a post-hype prospect with questions around his character - in other words, the perfect buy-low candidate for a rebuilding team like us. We still think he has the tools to be an above-average hitter in the MLB, and will give him the opportunity to prove it. It cost us very little - Szczur was a waiver pickup from earlier in the season, while Jefferson and Verbel both have some potential but we don't think either of them are likely to become valuable major leaguers. We also managed to extract Montes De Oca in the trade, a high-upside power pitcher whose 100MPH fastball could be coming to a major league bullpen near you before long. Reds receive C Meibrys Viloria (22), OF Diego Hernandez (18), OF Brewer Hicklen (23), SP Jackson Kowar (22) Royals receive SP Lucas Sims (25), 2B Alejo Lopez (23), OF Miles Gordon (21), 3B Brantley Bell (24) Reds receive SP Jonathan Loaisiga (24), SP Garret Whitlock (23), 2B Dionys Vallejo (19), OF Antonio Cabello (18), OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (18) Yankees receive SP Jose Rafael Lopez (25), OF Aristides Aquino (25), OF Narciso Crook (23) These two prospects-for-prospects trades may seem a bit odd, so let me provide some context. Lucas Sims and Jose Rafael Lopez were the two most valuable pieces we gave up here, which may seem odd given that they're both 25 years old and still in the low-minors. However, both have been destroying the competition (2.56 ERA and 13.3 K/9 for Sims and 1.73 ERA and 8.0 K/9 for Lopez) but both have been in High-A this year and weren't really seen by us as high-upside prospects heading into the season. However, I guess these teams saw something they liked in these performances, and were willing to pay up for them. I won't look a gift horse in the mouth - these trades are somehwat reminiscent of the Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven Souza trade that worked out great for the team that was trading a relatively unremarkable prospect who had a career year as a 25 year old in the minors. Let's hope I'm right! There were a lot of prospects that came back to us in these two trades, so here's a quick profile of each one: - Meibrys Viloria (22): combines solid receiving skills, contact and plate discipline with a decent amount of power, has been crushing Double-A, instantly becomes one of our top two or three catching prospects. - OF Diego Hernandez (18): lots of development to do but has the talent to become one of the most complete hitters in the league, according to our scouts; currently in Rookie league. - OF Brewer Hicklen (23): incredible speed, 6'2 frame gives him potential to develop elite power along with good approach at the plate - could be an above-average 5 tool outfielder but has struggled in Double-A this year; currently in High-A. - SP Jackson Kowar (22): doing well at Double-A, has 3 pitches including an 80-grade changeup; might give up a decent amount of homers but looks like a future mid-rotation arm. - SP Jonathan Loaisiga (24): the Yankees have been trying to move him all season but we like his potential; has 3 plus pitches, impressive velocity (can hit 98MPH) and doesn't give up many walks; home runs are a weakness but should still be an average starter or better in his prime; currently in Triple-A but could be in the majors by next year. - SP Garret Whitlock (23): potential to be a league average starter, with 3 solid pitches, can reach 95MPH; has had success at Double-A this season. - 2B Dionys Vallejo (19): has the potential to become a well-rounded hitter with solid defense at 2B or 3B, but lacks the athleticism to play SS; lottery ticket type prospect in Rookie league. - OF Antonio Cabello (18): similar to Hernandez (profiled above), looks like a potential All-Star but still very raw; played well enough in Rookie league last year to earn a spot in Single-A this season. - OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (18): another lottery ticket prospect, doesn't have quite as much talent or potential as Cabello or Hernandez but still could become an above-average outfielder and hitter if he reaches his ceiling; currently in Single-A. Next Update I know this was a long update, but be forewarned - next month's could be even longer! In just a few days the international free agent signing period will begin, and we expect to be quite active in that market as we look to continue to build up our farm. After that, of course, is the trading deadline at the end of the month - we expect it to be quite spicy for us, given that we still have a handful of veterans on our roster - including the impending FA Scooter Gennett. Til next time! Attached Images __________________ My OOTP 15 Padres Rebuild Dynasty My OOTP 17 Tigers Rebuild Dynasty My OOTP 20 Reds Rebuild Dynasty Last edited by vigilante225; 05-18-2020 at 07:24 PM.