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Bub13 · 05-17-2020, 10:20 AM

STATE OF THE FRANCHISE REPORT, NOVEMBER 2050

Presenting a top-down look at the overall status of the Hawaii Islanders franchise, covering just about everything except stadium concessions and parking. (Lots of parking btw, no problems there. And the food options? Amazing.) So open up a can/bottle/mason jar of your favorite, and read on.

FINANCES
The budget has gradually crept up over the years, and was recently raised to a franchise-high $220 million. That puts us 8th in the league, and just $2M behind the Yankees. (LA leads the majors with a whopping $302M; Baltimore is the chintziest, at $93M.) We have the biggest budget in our division, thirty million ahead of second-place Oakland. Our expenses currently come in at $210M, which makes for just a $10M gap between budget and expenses. (Although I'm wondering if that will drop once our free agents come off the books. Probably?) We led the league in attendance and were fourth in gate revenue. (Helped by all those playoff games, of course.) One thing that hurts the bottom line is our media revenue: we get a combined $74M, which ranks us 32nd and is less than half of what the Yankees and Dodgers make. We are currently in negotiations for the next media contracts, so this could change, hopefully for the better.

Despite leading the league in overall attendance, our average game numbers (45.2k per game) were down a couple thousand from 2049. We sold 20.1k season tickets, which was also down slightly. We are not planning on raising ticket prices for '51, so sales should rebound somewhat. Our market size still ranks as Below Average, although internal polling shows our fan loyalty rose into the nebulous "Very Good" range, and fan interest remains at or above 100. With a number of popular players entering free agency, however, that last number will likely be tested. (Our staff metrics guy calls it "facing some downward pressure.")

Our overall financial health is pretty good. The budget increase allowed me to raise our scouting and developmental budgets for next year, something I had not been able to do for several seasons; in fact those budgets have declined over the last five years or so. We also raised our draft budget, although how much of that we end up spending won't be determined until the actual draft. The board wants us to make over $20M in profit next year: that too will be a challenge.

PERSONNEL
With several openings left to fill, our staff budget is $5.6M, which ranks among the league's highest. One reason manager Matt Sargent was let go, frankly, was his salary ask of $3M. Instead, we've promoted bench coach Chris Kenney, and now have the (somewhat dubious) distinction of having a manager who is the lowest-paid member of the MLB staff. That may change, as the Assistant GM and Bench Coach positions have yet to be filled. We also need a new pitching coach for our Short A squad. All big league staff are contracted through at least 2052, and the highest-paid non-GM contract (Scouting Director Moises Patino, making $1.1M) goes through 2054.

......

PLAYERS
The heart of the team, and what really matters. Money and coaches are irrelevant if you don't have the horses to get it done and bring it home. (No more platitudes, please.) This will be a position-by-position overview, and will include current MLB players as well as the highest ranked prospects, with a concluding outlook for each position.

Catchers
Starter Rob Rich was a complete non-factor at the plate (.252/2/52, 0.7 WAR), but continues to be a strong defensive receiver. He re-upped for another year at $5M, and is the best option going forward, unless something better comes along via trade. I don't believe the current crop of free agents would help us here. Backup Tom Whittington (.244/1/9) doesn't offer much right now, but is cheap and is an above-average receiver. His advanced stats were better than Rich's, so he might get more AB this coming season. Combined, these two played at replacement level (1 WAR). Currently they are the only catchers on the 40-man roster.

Top Prospects
Tom Whittington (MLB) -- see above
Bentley Kolb (Rookie) -- still just 19; batted okay in '50 (.253, .346 OBP); decent receiver with some batting upside; worth watching
Justin Saffer (AAA) -- batted .310 and a team captain; terrible ceilings and not much behind the plate; not really big league material

OUTLOOK: I would love more production from these guys, but that could be a vain hope. Vet Lance Powell (38) is the best option in free agency, but while he can still hit, he's a train wreck behind the plate. I may probe around the league for trade options, but won't sacrifice solid defense just for a few more WAR points. The other AAA guy is 32-year-old Brett Monize, who has decent MLB experience and will push Whittington in camp if I re-sign him. Otherwise, it's pretty barren on the farm save for last year's #2 pick William Bustos: a good catcher but lost at the plate, a common theme here.

...

First Basemen/DH
Adam Groff will be tendered a new contract offer, so I expect he'll be back either at first or DH. His range has vanished, but otherwise is a solid fielder, and he still wields a powerful bat. Last year's backup and regular DH, Chris Goldthwait, won't be back. The other current option is Faustino Whitton, who at 36 has little left in the field but can still hit lefties. He's a platoon option here or at DH should we keep him around. Jerry Cappuccilli saw some time here as well, and could also be a DH platoon option with Whitton, as he's a lefty who looks strong against RHP.

Top Prospects
Jules Medici (AA/AAA) -- star of the future; finally hit for power (18 HR in AA/AAA); still needs to grow some, so will likely start in AAA
Tim Chapman (AAA) -- hit .310 in an injury-riddled season; power ceiling has dropped, but looks decent elsewhere; very fast too
Frank Ruvalcalba (Short A) -- better CF prospect with speed and range; subpar hitter, tho, who will probably get exposed once he moves up the ladder

OUTLOOK: Groff is still The Man, and hopefully will be for a few more years. I'm trying to be patient with Medici, who still rates as our next stud hitter. There's not much behind these guys, outside of Steve Rhodes (A), a decent hitting prospect with awesome intangibles.

...

Second Baseman
Josh Matson received a battlefield promotion after the mid-season trade of Manny Rangel, and hit well (.303/.356/.448). His bat should keep him employed for a while, but his defense is substandard. Decent glove, but range and DP ability are just average. Backup Julian Cardenas finally got the call, and while he didn't hit (.190), he's an excellent defender. He'll be back as a late-inning defensive sub, and probably see some time at first too. His arm isn't up to playing the left side, sadly. If Matson hits at all, I'll be satisfied here.

Top Prospects
Julian Cardenas -- see above
Erik Griffin (SA/A) -- decent fielder, hitter; future backup most likely; can play LF; good runner; 8th round pick in '48
Francisco Salcedo (AA/AAA) -- another reserve-level prospect; better fielder than hitter, but at 22 might still surprise; stud OF defense but no range

OUTLOOK: More of the same, please. We'll miss Rangel's Gold Glove defense, but Matson should be a much better hitter. Hopefully Cardenas won't get too cranky about his backup role and spot starts. There are no other prospects who rate at the moment, so depth could be a concern.

...

Third Basemen
J.J. Simmons has no power (career high 2 HR last year) at a traditional power position, but brings everything else. He batted .311 with 79 walks and 32 SB thrown in, and won his third consecutive Gold Glove. And yet, I may swap him with Bob Goodloe (see below), as he's much rangier than Mr. Bob. Jesse Ryder is the current backup (also see shortstop). Depending on how that switch goes, we may yet regret trading slugging prospect Dante Padilla last year (he hit 29 HR with Tampa Bay).

Top Prospects
Lua Ulkini (AAA) -- will miss camp with an MCL injury; not great at anything, but well-rounded enough to compete for corner IF/OF backup duty one day
Joe Mikell (AAA) -- average UFA signing, and will return there this fall
Bobby Zoll (A) -- great fielder, bad hitter, and wants to explore free agency; so long, then

OUTLOOK: Great at the top, but an over-reliance on minor league free agents and some poor development have really emptied the cupboard. We can remedy some of that at the AAA level at least, but once again there are questions down the line here.

...

Shortstops
Bob Goodloe stepped in for the injured Rich Stoneback and was magnificent. He batted .354 with 15 HR, 80 RBI, and 5.8 WAR in 120 starts. While those may end up being career highs, we still signed him to a five-year extension. He's a decent fielder, he can run, he won't strike out, and he's a team captain. Still, his lack of high-end range has me contemplating a move to third, brining Simmons back to short (he's made 272 starts there over the years). My groundball pitching staff requires mobile infielders, so this change will get a long look in camp. Backup Jesse Ryder only batted 34 times, and will probably have the job next year as long as he hits .265 again. He's a good enough fielder to cover all three "skill" IF positions, and is happy with the backup role. A significant injury to Goodloe or Simmons, however, will be hard to fill. Speaking of injuries, we say goodbye to walking hospital ward Rich Stoneback, a hell of a hitter who just can't stay on the field.

Top Prospects
Kevin Kelly (S A) -- 16th round pick with great intangibles; if he can learn to hit, he's a future starter; that's a big 'if' however
Jesse Ryder -- see above
Kevin Kemper (AA) -- another stud fielder with bat issues; batted just .201 and doesn't have good ceilings; can hit doubles and take some walks, but that's it

OUTLOOK: Again, very solid at the big league level. I might look around for some depth options, however, as a serious injury on the left side of the infield will spell disaster. Another place where we need to step up our development: there are several players (Eric Husted, Manny Escobar, Chris Williams, Carlos Ovalle, Matt Couey) at AA and below who are all quality fielders but not much at the plate. If at least one of those guys learns to hit, however, I'll feel much better here.

...

Left Fielders
As long as he keeps hitting, the job belongs to Cam Daley. In addition to his batting crown, he banged out 48 doubles and stole 18 bases. His only drawback is that he's lost some range in the field and will never compete for a Gold Glove. So having said that, maybe he'll be a DH one day before too long instead. He's also beloved by the fans and has a ridiculously team-friendly contract that tops out at $5.6M in '53, when he'll turn 30. Cappuccilli (see also: 1B) is his nominal backup and is itching to get into the lineup, but will probably figure more as a DH next season. Ditto Faustino Whitton, also listed as a LF on the roster, but with all the range of a fire hydrant.

Top Prospects
Julius Burrows (AAA) -- saw some September time and is a near-lock for next year's roster; can play all three OF positions; LHB who struggles vs LHP
Josh Hed (A) -- hasn't hit much yet, and if he doesn't develop next year, will probably become trade bait; good CF rating too
Stephen Eason (AA) -- 20-year-old will probably head to AAA next year; high INT/WE has made his potential jump and he's a legit prospect now

OUTLOOK: We still have an embarrassment of riches in the outfield, and could look to trade a prospect or two for some middle infield help. Daley is set here, as is the MLB roster in general. Behind the aforementioned, there's also Caleb Royer (AA), Roberto Duran (A), Nick Gase (Short A), and Pat Baker (R), all of whom look promising.

...

Center Fielders
Joe Lynn hit .361 (in just 146 AB tho) and finally dislodged Jim Klein's hold here. Klein can still get on base, witness his .276 average and .348 OBP, and he stole 14 bases. But his defense has all but evaporated, so we decided not to take up his option for '51. I might still consider bringing him back at less than the $6.5M he made last year, but honestly I'm more interested in a) taking at look at some younger players, or b) finding more of a power bat off the OF bench. With the LH Burrows already penciled in to the '51 roster, I may be on the prowl for a RH bench bat, if someone from the farm doesn't impress. And as Burrows can also play center, that bat can be more of a corner outfielder, if that's what's available.

Top Prospects
Joe Lynn -- already covered
Tim Chapman (AAA) -- see 1B prospects
Dante Garrica (A/AA) -- looks a lot like a better fielding Cam Daley; intangibles through the roof; a free swinger, so that may limit him a bit

OUTLOOK: Lynn doesn't walk a ton and has no power; those are his only drawbacks. Otherwise, center field is another strong suit for us. And there are other prospects galore here: Jorge Sanchez and Will Villanueva (AA), Jose Gonzales (A), Diego Espino (S A and the best of the bunch), and Dave Langford (R).

...

Right Fielders
Josh Frederick has emerged as a star in the league, especially after this season's .318/34/142 effort, producing 7.7 WAR. He's also got a big arm (was once a decent pitching prospect too) and is a team captain. He's just 27 and signed for eight more years (let's overlook his opt out after '53 for now), so should be a fixture in right for a long time. Once again, Burrows is the #1 backup here, but we'll give Jaden Daniels (.206 in 34 AB) another shot. Daniels mostly fits the bill I talked about above, being a RH bench bat with good fielding; but he has little power, and I want my bench--and injury fill-ins, as needed--to have some more pop next year. Two AAA RF, William Cabrera and Ken Taliaferro, will get a look in camp, but they are both defensively limited. (Taliaferro, at least, does hit for power.)

Top Prospects
Joe Lynn -- see above
Dante Garrica -- see above
Kevin Jessen (S A) -- a 1st rounder from '49, he's got a good all-around bat and decent speed; okay arm and glove, but little range

OUTLOOK: No one is getting in Frederick's way, so the only question here is who makes the team in a backup role. Burrows is the OF supersub, and Daniels has enough experience to be a contender. Prospect Garrica is at least a year away, and RF looks like his best spot. Not mentioned above is Russ Venters (A), a 13th round pick in '49 who took a major jump last year according to our scouts. And there are still more promising guys on the way: Nick Cooley (AA), Doug Pederson (Short A), and David Dillard (R).

...

Starting Pitchers
Only three of last year's regulars are coming back: Eric Jones, Shamar Jackson, and now Dennis Perry (arbitration). Mike Garfield struggled for much of the season, then got injured and missed two months and the playoffs. He's 32 and wants a big payday, and we say no thanks. Ryan Ratliff led the team with 225 K, winning 14 games and finishing second with 3.4 WAR. But he's 30, also wants a big payday, but has pitched just two full seasons in the six he's been with us. He's tempting, but if I'm going to pay a guy $20M or more, I'll find someone without such an injury history. (Yes, I know pitchers are always a crapshoot. Go away.) So we have three options to fill out the rotation: 1) free agency. Good, but will cost us a first round pick; 2) trade. Possibly, if someone will take, say, a prospect OF for an established pitcher. Maybe; And 3) promote from within. Who could fit the bill for the third option? First is LH Shane Walker, who made 13 starts after Garfield got hurt. He's not overpowering and doesn't rate highly anywhere, but might get the job done in the #5 slot. From AAA, there's Olimpio Le Coq, Shaun Gates, and Jonathan Ashton. All have seen time in the bigs, all have some strengths, and all struggle with control. Definite maybes. Then there's the surprising Mike Pearse, a 23-year-old minor league FA signing from '47 who's jumped up the charts for no reason that I can discern. Are our scouts drunk? Could be, but they say he's worth a look now that his control finally rounded out. There are also some promising contenders in AA and A, but they're at least a year away and so will get mentioned below.

Top Prospects
Josh Irvin (A) -- looks a lot like Jones: control groundball pitcher; only hits 91 on the radar gun; 3rd rounder from '49, will be in AAA next year
Henry Skiffington (AA) -- power pitcher with some movement issues; acquired from PIT in June; will also be in AAA
Mike Bader (AA) -- came over from WSH in June, really struggled all year; back-end type, decent across the board with nothing standing out
Danny Carbajal (A) -- waiting for his 3rd pitch to develop before we know what to do with him; another #4 or 5 type starter
Olimpio Le Coq (AAA) -- see above

OUTLOOK: We haven't had a truly dominant power pitcher since the days of Mike Messinger and Rob Hart. And I doubt I'm going to spend the bucks and the draft pick to go and sign one, frankly. Maybe we'll take a trade flier on a guy in his last contract year, in hopes of riding him to another ring. What I'm guessing right now, however, is that this will be an unsettled area right up to the end of camp. As for prospects beyond the five mentioned above...there isn't much. Greg Van Tilburg (A), Chris Wildermuth and Raul Almendariz (S A) are long shots at best, and pretty much everyone else isn't worth mentioning.

...

Relief Pitchers
This group was a tower of strength all year long, and was definitely a major reason we won another title. Closer Jon White was fabulous, and will be back. Ben Germann and Kyle Johnson were solid in setup roles, and will also be back, although Germann's K/9 dropped substantially. Alex Mahoney was acquired from LA at the deadline, and was also excellent; he could easily slide into a SU or CL role if needed. Nick Kramer finally pitched well, not allowing a run in September and earning a nice arbitration award ($1.2M) for next year. Mark Money, HC Kym, and Dan Brown, however, will not be back. Money I'd like to retain, as he fanned 152 (!) in 118 IP, but wants a ton of money (lol). I'll see if he's unsigned in December and take a sniff. Jaheim Mwaura, Jeremy Kolek, and YJ Yi all saw time in Hawaii this year, and will get looks in camp. Kevin Walker, Shane Hanley, and Henry Cruz are big-stuff guys with bad control, and might also merit some camp time.

Top Prospects
Anthony Booker (AA) -- was excellent in AA, and once his control rounds out he'll get a long look; should be in AAA next year
Kyle Johnson (MLB) -- see above
Deshawn Card (AA) -- swingman; control is his best asset, but stuff isn't great; struggled as a starter in AA, might get moved to pen in AAA
YJ Yi (AAA) -- impressed in AAA, not so much in Hawaii; one of several with the inside line for the final RP slot
Henry Cruz (AAA) -- cranky about being stuck in AAA; control is a major issue, but looks solid otherwise; might be a numbers victim and find himself traded
Alex Paredes (A) -- former top prospect who never developed; pitched poorly in A this season; probably has one more year in him; I might make him a coach

OUTLOOK: Should be a position of strength again next year. White, Johnson, Germann, and Mahoney are locks. That leaves two slots open, with Nick Kramer the front runner for one of them. I'm undecided about bringing in a free agent to add to the competitive mix. I tried that with Dan Brown last year, but he got hurt and missed nearly the whole season. Still, if someone good is available cheap late in the game, I'll consider it. As for other prospects lower in the minors: Tyler Amsden (AA), Josh Egan and Jeff Black (A), and Alex Lopez (S A) are the usual at-least-a-year-away crew.

......

The TL;DR Version of all that is pretty much this: I like our group for 2051, and probably won't be looking to make major changes. Barring a major fit of forgetfulness, or a steep decline from a veteran, I'll probably not be looking at any expensive free agent pickups this winter. Maybe a backup infielder and outfielder; possibly a catcher, perhaps a quad-A/MLB tweener; and maybe a starting pitcher and a middle reliever. Basically, a whole lot of 'maybe' for the next few months. What's really keeping me from going after a high-dollar free agent is losing that first round pick as compensation. Throw in that we qualified four guys who could possibly bring back supplemental picks next year, and we could be looking at five picks in the first 50 or so players. I want that. Still...I'll at least take a look at the top SPs available. They'll all start with demands well north of $20M (plus a couple who'll likely start over $30M), but we'll see who doesn't get signed early and might lower their demand into reasonable territory. I can add that the trade block is terrible right now, but we'll also look at that heading into the Winter Meetings. Gotta be somebody who's desperate out there!

05-17-2020, 10:20 AM	#339
Bub13 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Maine Posts: 748	STATE OF THE FRANCHISE REPORT, NOVEMBER 2050 Presenting a top-down look at the overall status of the Hawaii Islanders franchise, covering just about everything except stadium concessions and parking. (Lots of parking btw, no problems there. And the food options? Amazing.) So open up a can/bottle/mason jar of your favorite, and read on. FINANCES The budget has gradually crept up over the years, and was recently raised to a franchise-high $220 million. That puts us 8th in the league, and just $2M behind the Yankees. (LA leads the majors with a whopping $302M; Baltimore is the chintziest, at $93M.) We have the biggest budget in our division, thirty million ahead of second-place Oakland. Our expenses currently come in at $210M, which makes for just a $10M gap between budget and expenses. (Although I'm wondering if that will drop once our free agents come off the books. Probably?) We led the league in attendance and were fourth in gate revenue. (Helped by all those playoff games, of course.) One thing that hurts the bottom line is our media revenue: we get a combined $74M, which ranks us 32nd and is less than half of what the Yankees and Dodgers make. We are currently in negotiations for the next media contracts, so this could change, hopefully for the better. Despite leading the league in overall attendance, our average game numbers (45.2k per game) were down a couple thousand from 2049. We sold 20.1k season tickets, which was also down slightly. We are not planning on raising ticket prices for '51, so sales should rebound somewhat. Our market size still ranks as Below Average, although internal polling shows our fan loyalty rose into the nebulous "Very Good" range, and fan interest remains at or above 100. With a number of popular players entering free agency, however, that last number will likely be tested. (Our staff metrics guy calls it "facing some downward pressure.") Our overall financial health is pretty good. The budget increase allowed me to raise our scouting and developmental budgets for next year, something I had not been able to do for several seasons; in fact those budgets have declined over the last five years or so. We also raised our draft budget, although how much of that we end up spending won't be determined until the actual draft. The board wants us to make over $20M in profit next year: that too will be a challenge. PERSONNEL With several openings left to fill, our staff budget is $5.6M, which ranks among the league's highest. One reason manager Matt Sargent was let go, frankly, was his salary ask of $3M. Instead, we've promoted bench coach Chris Kenney, and now have the (somewhat dubious) distinction of having a manager who is the lowest-paid member of the MLB staff. That may change, as the Assistant GM and Bench Coach positions have yet to be filled. We also need a new pitching coach for our Short A squad. All big league staff are contracted through at least 2052, and the highest-paid non-GM contract (Scouting Director Moises Patino, making $1.1M) goes through 2054. ...... PLAYERS The heart of the team, and what really matters. Money and coaches are irrelevant if you don't have the horses to get it done and bring it home. (No more platitudes, please.) This will be a position-by-position overview, and will include current MLB players as well as the highest ranked prospects, with a concluding outlook for each position. Catchers Starter Rob Rich was a complete non-factor at the plate (.252/2/52, 0.7 WAR), but continues to be a strong defensive receiver. He re-upped for another year at $5M, and is the best option going forward, unless something better comes along via trade. I don't believe the current crop of free agents would help us here. Backup Tom Whittington (.244/1/9) doesn't offer much right now, but is cheap and is an above-average receiver. His advanced stats were better than Rich's, so he might get more AB this coming season. Combined, these two played at replacement level (1 WAR). Currently they are the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Top Prospects Tom Whittington (MLB) -- see above Bentley Kolb (Rookie) -- still just 19; batted okay in '50 (.253, .346 OBP); decent receiver with some batting upside; worth watching Justin Saffer (AAA) -- batted .310 and a team captain; terrible ceilings and not much behind the plate; not really big league material OUTLOOK: I would love more production from these guys, but that could be a vain hope. Vet Lance Powell (38) is the best option in free agency, but while he can still hit, he's a train wreck behind the plate. I may probe around the league for trade options, but won't sacrifice solid defense just for a few more WAR points. The other AAA guy is 32-year-old Brett Monize, who has decent MLB experience and will push Whittington in camp if I re-sign him. Otherwise, it's pretty barren on the farm save for last year's #2 pick William Bustos: a good catcher but lost at the plate, a common theme here. ... First Basemen/DH Adam Groff will be tendered a new contract offer, so I expect he'll be back either at first or DH. His range has vanished, but otherwise is a solid fielder, and he still wields a powerful bat. Last year's backup and regular DH, Chris Goldthwait, won't be back. The other current option is Faustino Whitton, who at 36 has little left in the field but can still hit lefties. He's a platoon option here or at DH should we keep him around. Jerry Cappuccilli saw some time here as well, and could also be a DH platoon option with Whitton, as he's a lefty who looks strong against RHP. Top Prospects Jules Medici (AA/AAA) -- star of the future; finally hit for power (18 HR in AA/AAA); still needs to grow some, so will likely start in AAA Tim Chapman (AAA) -- hit .310 in an injury-riddled season; power ceiling has dropped, but looks decent elsewhere; very fast too Frank Ruvalcalba (Short A) -- better CF prospect with speed and range; subpar hitter, tho, who will probably get exposed once he moves up the ladder OUTLOOK: Groff is still The Man, and hopefully will be for a few more years. I'm trying to be patient with Medici, who still rates as our next stud hitter. There's not much behind these guys, outside of Steve Rhodes (A), a decent hitting prospect with awesome intangibles. ... Second Baseman Josh Matson received a battlefield promotion after the mid-season trade of Manny Rangel, and hit well (.303/.356/.448). His bat should keep him employed for a while, but his defense is substandard. Decent glove, but range and DP ability are just average. Backup Julian Cardenas finally got the call, and while he didn't hit (.190), he's an excellent defender. He'll be back as a late-inning defensive sub, and probably see some time at first too. His arm isn't up to playing the left side, sadly. If Matson hits at all, I'll be satisfied here. Top Prospects Julian Cardenas -- see above Erik Griffin (SA/A) -- decent fielder, hitter; future backup most likely; can play LF; good runner; 8th round pick in '48 Francisco Salcedo (AA/AAA) -- another reserve-level prospect; better fielder than hitter, but at 22 might still surprise; stud OF defense but no range OUTLOOK: More of the same, please. We'll miss Rangel's Gold Glove defense, but Matson should be a much better hitter. Hopefully Cardenas won't get too cranky about his backup role and spot starts. There are no other prospects who rate at the moment, so depth could be a concern. ... Third Basemen J.J. Simmons has no power (career high 2 HR last year) at a traditional power position, but brings everything else. He batted .311 with 79 walks and 32 SB thrown in, and won his third consecutive Gold Glove. And yet, I may swap him with Bob Goodloe (see below), as he's much rangier than Mr. Bob. Jesse Ryder is the current backup (also see shortstop). Depending on how that switch goes, we may yet regret trading slugging prospect Dante Padilla last year (he hit 29 HR with Tampa Bay). Top Prospects Lua Ulkini (AAA) -- will miss camp with an MCL injury; not great at anything, but well-rounded enough to compete for corner IF/OF backup duty one day Joe Mikell (AAA) -- average UFA signing, and will return there this fall Bobby Zoll (A) -- great fielder, bad hitter, and wants to explore free agency; so long, then OUTLOOK: Great at the top, but an over-reliance on minor league free agents and some poor development have really emptied the cupboard. We can remedy some of that at the AAA level at least, but once again there are questions down the line here. ... Shortstops Bob Goodloe stepped in for the injured Rich Stoneback and was magnificent. He batted .354 with 15 HR, 80 RBI, and 5.8 WAR in 120 starts. While those may end up being career highs, we still signed him to a five-year extension. He's a decent fielder, he can run, he won't strike out, and he's a team captain. Still, his lack of high-end range has me contemplating a move to third, brining Simmons back to short (he's made 272 starts there over the years). My groundball pitching staff requires mobile infielders, so this change will get a long look in camp. Backup Jesse Ryder only batted 34 times, and will probably have the job next year as long as he hits .265 again. He's a good enough fielder to cover all three "skill" IF positions, and is happy with the backup role. A significant injury to Goodloe or Simmons, however, will be hard to fill. Speaking of injuries, we say goodbye to walking hospital ward Rich Stoneback, a hell of a hitter who just can't stay on the field. Top Prospects Kevin Kelly (S A) -- 16th round pick with great intangibles; if he can learn to hit, he's a future starter; that's a big 'if' however Jesse Ryder -- see above Kevin Kemper (AA) -- another stud fielder with bat issues; batted just .201 and doesn't have good ceilings; can hit doubles and take some walks, but that's it OUTLOOK: Again, very solid at the big league level. I might look around for some depth options, however, as a serious injury on the left side of the infield will spell disaster. Another place where we need to step up our development: there are several players (Eric Husted, Manny Escobar, Chris Williams, Carlos Ovalle, Matt Couey) at AA and below who are all quality fielders but not much at the plate. If at least one of those guys learns to hit, however, I'll feel much better here. ... Left Fielders As long as he keeps hitting, the job belongs to Cam Daley. In addition to his batting crown, he banged out 48 doubles and stole 18 bases. His only drawback is that he's lost some range in the field and will never compete for a Gold Glove. So having said that, maybe he'll be a DH one day before too long instead. He's also beloved by the fans and has a ridiculously team-friendly contract that tops out at $5.6M in '53, when he'll turn 30. Cappuccilli (see also: 1B) is his nominal backup and is itching to get into the lineup, but will probably figure more as a DH next season. Ditto Faustino Whitton, also listed as a LF on the roster, but with all the range of a fire hydrant. Top Prospects Julius Burrows (AAA) -- saw some September time and is a near-lock for next year's roster; can play all three OF positions; LHB who struggles vs LHP Josh Hed (A) -- hasn't hit much yet, and if he doesn't develop next year, will probably become trade bait; good CF rating too Stephen Eason (AA) -- 20-year-old will probably head to AAA next year; high INT/WE has made his potential jump and he's a legit prospect now OUTLOOK: We still have an embarrassment of riches in the outfield, and could look to trade a prospect or two for some middle infield help. Daley is set here, as is the MLB roster in general. Behind the aforementioned, there's also Caleb Royer (AA), Roberto Duran (A), Nick Gase (Short A), and Pat Baker (R), all of whom look promising. ... Center Fielders Joe Lynn hit .361 (in just 146 AB tho) and finally dislodged Jim Klein's hold here. Klein can still get on base, witness his .276 average and .348 OBP, and he stole 14 bases. But his defense has all but evaporated, so we decided not to take up his option for '51. I might still consider bringing him back at less than the $6.5M he made last year, but honestly I'm more interested in a) taking at look at some younger players, or b) finding more of a power bat off the OF bench. With the LH Burrows already penciled in to the '51 roster, I may be on the prowl for a RH bench bat, if someone from the farm doesn't impress. And as Burrows can also play center, that bat can be more of a corner outfielder, if that's what's available. Top Prospects Joe Lynn -- already covered Tim Chapman (AAA) -- see 1B prospects Dante Garrica (A/AA) -- looks a lot like a better fielding Cam Daley; intangibles through the roof; a free swinger, so that may limit him a bit OUTLOOK: Lynn doesn't walk a ton and has no power; those are his only drawbacks. Otherwise, center field is another strong suit for us. And there are other prospects galore here: Jorge Sanchez and Will Villanueva (AA), Jose Gonzales (A), Diego Espino (S A and the best of the bunch), and Dave Langford (R). ... Right Fielders Josh Frederick has emerged as a star in the league, especially after this season's .318/34/142 effort, producing 7.7 WAR. He's also got a big arm (was once a decent pitching prospect too) and is a team captain. He's just 27 and signed for eight more years (let's overlook his opt out after '53 for now), so should be a fixture in right for a long time. Once again, Burrows is the #1 backup here, but we'll give Jaden Daniels (.206 in 34 AB) another shot. Daniels mostly fits the bill I talked about above, being a RH bench bat with good fielding; but he has little power, and I want my bench--and injury fill-ins, as needed--to have some more pop next year. Two AAA RF, William Cabrera and Ken Taliaferro, will get a look in camp, but they are both defensively limited. (Taliaferro, at least, does hit for power.) Top Prospects Joe Lynn -- see above Dante Garrica -- see above Kevin Jessen (S A) -- a 1st rounder from '49, he's got a good all-around bat and decent speed; okay arm and glove, but little range OUTLOOK: No one is getting in Frederick's way, so the only question here is who makes the team in a backup role. Burrows is the OF supersub, and Daniels has enough experience to be a contender. Prospect Garrica is at least a year away, and RF looks like his best spot. Not mentioned above is Russ Venters (A), a 13th round pick in '49 who took a major jump last year according to our scouts. And there are still more promising guys on the way: Nick Cooley (AA), Doug Pederson (Short A), and David Dillard (R). ... Starting Pitchers Only three of last year's regulars are coming back: Eric Jones, Shamar Jackson, and now Dennis Perry (arbitration). Mike Garfield struggled for much of the season, then got injured and missed two months and the playoffs. He's 32 and wants a big payday, and we say no thanks. Ryan Ratliff led the team with 225 K, winning 14 games and finishing second with 3.4 WAR. But he's 30, also wants a big payday, but has pitched just two full seasons in the six he's been with us. He's tempting, but if I'm going to pay a guy $20M or more, I'll find someone without such an injury history. (Yes, I know pitchers are always a crapshoot. Go away.) So we have three options to fill out the rotation: 1) free agency. Good, but will cost us a first round pick; 2) trade. Possibly, if someone will take, say, a prospect OF for an established pitcher. Maybe; And 3) promote from within. Who could fit the bill for the third option? First is LH Shane Walker, who made 13 starts after Garfield got hurt. He's not overpowering and doesn't rate highly anywhere, but might get the job done in the #5 slot. From AAA, there's Olimpio Le Coq, Shaun Gates, and Jonathan Ashton. All have seen time in the bigs, all have some strengths, and all struggle with control. Definite maybes. Then there's the surprising Mike Pearse, a 23-year-old minor league FA signing from '47 who's jumped up the charts for no reason that I can discern. Are our scouts drunk? Could be, but they say he's worth a look now that his control finally rounded out. There are also some promising contenders in AA and A, but they're at least a year away and so will get mentioned below. Top Prospects Josh Irvin (A) -- looks a lot like Jones: control groundball pitcher; only hits 91 on the radar gun; 3rd rounder from '49, will be in AAA next year Henry Skiffington (AA) -- power pitcher with some movement issues; acquired from PIT in June; will also be in AAA Mike Bader (AA) -- came over from WSH in June, really struggled all year; back-end type, decent across the board with nothing standing out Danny Carbajal (A) -- waiting for his 3rd pitch to develop before we know what to do with him; another #4 or 5 type starter Olimpio Le Coq (AAA) -- see above OUTLOOK: We haven't had a truly dominant power pitcher since the days of Mike Messinger and Rob Hart. And I doubt I'm going to spend the bucks and the draft pick to go and sign one, frankly. Maybe we'll take a trade flier on a guy in his last contract year, in hopes of riding him to another ring. What I'm guessing right now, however, is that this will be an unsettled area right up to the end of camp. As for prospects beyond the five mentioned above...there isn't much. Greg Van Tilburg (A), Chris Wildermuth and Raul Almendariz (S A) are long shots at best, and pretty much everyone else isn't worth mentioning. ... Relief Pitchers This group was a tower of strength all year long, and was definitely a major reason we won another title. Closer Jon White was fabulous, and will be back. Ben Germann and Kyle Johnson were solid in setup roles, and will also be back, although Germann's K/9 dropped substantially. Alex Mahoney was acquired from LA at the deadline, and was also excellent; he could easily slide into a SU or CL role if needed. Nick Kramer finally pitched well, not allowing a run in September and earning a nice arbitration award ($1.2M) for next year. Mark Money, HC Kym, and Dan Brown, however, will not be back. Money I'd like to retain, as he fanned 152 (!) in 118 IP, but wants a ton of money (lol). I'll see if he's unsigned in December and take a sniff. Jaheim Mwaura, Jeremy Kolek, and YJ Yi all saw time in Hawaii this year, and will get looks in camp. Kevin Walker, Shane Hanley, and Henry Cruz are big-stuff guys with bad control, and might also merit some camp time. Top Prospects Anthony Booker (AA) -- was excellent in AA, and once his control rounds out he'll get a long look; should be in AAA next year Kyle Johnson (MLB) -- see above Deshawn Card (AA) -- swingman; control is his best asset, but stuff isn't great; struggled as a starter in AA, might get moved to pen in AAA YJ Yi (AAA) -- impressed in AAA, not so much in Hawaii; one of several with the inside line for the final RP slot Henry Cruz (AAA) -- cranky about being stuck in AAA; control is a major issue, but looks solid otherwise; might be a numbers victim and find himself traded Alex Paredes (A) -- former top prospect who never developed; pitched poorly in A this season; probably has one more year in him; I might make him a coach OUTLOOK: Should be a position of strength again next year. White, Johnson, Germann, and Mahoney are locks. That leaves two slots open, with Nick Kramer the front runner for one of them. I'm undecided about bringing in a free agent to add to the competitive mix. I tried that with Dan Brown last year, but he got hurt and missed nearly the whole season. Still, if someone good is available cheap late in the game, I'll consider it. As for other prospects lower in the minors: Tyler Amsden (AA), Josh Egan and Jeff Black (A), and Alex Lopez (S A) are the usual at-least-a-year-away crew. ...... The TL;DR Version of all that is pretty much this: I like our group for 2051, and probably won't be looking to make major changes. Barring a major fit of forgetfulness, or a steep decline from a veteran, I'll probably not be looking at any expensive free agent pickups this winter. Maybe a backup infielder and outfielder; possibly a catcher, perhaps a quad-A/MLB tweener; and maybe a starting pitcher and a middle reliever. Basically, a whole lot of 'maybe' for the next few months. What's really keeping me from going after a high-dollar free agent is losing that first round pick as compensation. Throw in that we qualified four guys who could possibly bring back supplemental picks next year, and we could be looking at five picks in the first 50 or so players. I want that. Still...I'll at least take a look at the top SPs available. They'll all start with demands well north of $20M (plus a couple who'll likely start over $30M), but we'll see who doesn't get signed early and might lower their demand into reasonable territory. I can add that the trade block is terrible right now, but we'll also look at that heading into the Winter Meetings. Gotta be somebody who's desperate out there! __________________ Introducing Your Hawaii Islanders!