[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Royalsusedtorule

OK, so I finally found some numbers for MLB called third strikes, which I'd had trouble locating. The last season I could find was 2018 (nothing for 2019), but I figured that was recent enough to be viable (especially after seeing what the trend has been).
In 2018, it appears there were 42,207 total Ks with 9,795 on called third strikes (23%). What surprised me was looking back at the seven seasons leading up to 2019 - all seven hovering right in the 23% range.

2012 - 36,426, 8,700, 24%
2013 - 36,710, 8,630, 23%
2014 - 37,441, 9,189, 24%
2015 - 37, 446, 8,743, 23%
2016 - 38,982, 8,957, 23%
2017 - 40, 104, 9,318, 23%
2018 - 42,207, 9,795, 23%

That consistency of percentage was pretty amazing to me!

So, I decided I will track every game during the season I am in on OOTP the rest of the way. There were 131 games remaining in that season, so will give a fair sample size for a season (especially since I watched high enough numbers of called third strikes during first first 35 games for this to be noticeable and get my attention).

In the first 4 games since I first posted and found the total numbers above, here were the results.

Gm 1 - 13 Ks, 6 called third strikes, 46%
Gm 2 - 17 Ks, 6 called, 35%
Gm 3 - 14 Ks, 8 called, 57%
Gm 4 - 10 Ks, 3 called, 30%

Now, I know 4 games isn't saying much for sample size, but all 4 were considerably higher than 23-24%. If anyone would have asked me before starting to track what percentage I had thought I had been seeing in played out games, I would have said 30-40% off top of my head - and been pretty close as far as those 4 games (and actually a little low!).

My contention with the issue also involved the situations called third strikes were happening in. When 2-3 straight batters in today's whiff-happy age take called third strikes in late-inning, close-game (trailing) situations with runners in scoring position or bases loaded MULTIPLE TIMES, I think there is a problem with realism.

Maybe this will sort itself out over the next 127 games. Will be interesting to see. If not, it may be something to study further.

First thank you for actually taking the time to try to track this. So many post they think\know something is off but never take the time to look at the data. Kudos to you

I have no idea how your study will come out but agree right now extremely small sample. Maybe the team you are facing could skew the stats say if their pitching staff lead the league in K's? Follow that up playing a team that is last in the league in K's and perhaps it evens out? In any case since you're keeping track you will have hard data in the end.

It's also something others could jump in on and check out in their leagues. I'm a week or two away (real time) from starting a new season but may start keeping track too. I don't play in today's high K setting but more like early 2000's so would have to find stats from those years to compare. However, you're numbers back to 2012 are so consistent it probably wouldn't matter.

Very interested to see what you come up with.