Quote:
Originally Posted by brian_msbc
In that case... I have a 21 year old 3B in AAA that has hit .300+ and 4+ WAR at every level of the minors, and is currently hitting .300+ and 1.5 WAR in 50 AAA games. He’s overall 40 potential 50. Based on his stats should I consider giving him a shot at the majors? Or give him x amount of at bats at AAA?
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I look at 2 primary stats and 2 secondary stats. wOBA and WRC+ are my primary indicators. And I look at BB% and SO% to see where they fall on the scale. That helps me to determine his eye and his avoid K's. I guess there is a 3rd category Bapip just to see if it isn't extreme on scale. Any extreme bapip usually indicate and eventually return to the mean.
Just to show you that ratings and stars mean nothing lets examine this following player:
I just bought him near the end of Spring Training from and Independent Team. I needed a warm body for my A affiliate. At the time of purchase my scout had him current .5 stars and potential 1.5 stars. 108 plate appearances at Single A he exploded to 3.5 star potential and all of a sudden the #8 prospect in all of the MLB. From absolutely trash bin to top 10 prospect. His power is now at "75" it was like 40 or 50 when I bought him.
Now look at his WRC+ and wOBA for Single A. WRC+ over 160 is absolutely insane. And over .400 wOBA again insane. So I moved him up after 100 plate appearances. AA time got in 185 plate appearances and again he is putting up insane numbers and now also has the Scout Ratings to go with the numbers. Boom AAA. He will be called up this season. From A to MLB. He didn't even have spring training.
His bapip was normal in AA so that means it wasn't bad fielding or luck. And his BB% is there so his eye is developed for every level he has played in. And he is suppose to have SO% of over 20% and he does. Its not near or over 30% so that means his Avoid K's are developed too.
He can be on an MLB team by the all star break. All that just to show you how much ratings mean. Ratings/Scouts its just another piece of the puzzle. You have to put all the data together and run with it.