Quote:
Originally Posted by ablobj
So this morning I decided to manage the 1987 Twins in single season replay mode. I've been setting the lineups and starting pitcher for each game, then simming to the end. I'm up to game 54, and Kent Hrbek already has 30 HR. In real life, Herbie hit 34 for the season. Is this an Hrbekian glitch, am I the luckiest manager on Earth, or will he regress to the mean and be absolutely awful down the stretch? Anyone else have this happen?
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That was a 90 HR pace
IRL he wad a 34 HR pace
After 1/3 of the season, he had 30. With 2/3 of the season remaining, we'd expect (30+((2/3)*34)) about 52 for the season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ablobj
Yeah, seems that way. Now 90 games into the season and he's got 37, so he's only hit 7 in the last 36 games.
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7 HR in 36 games is a 32 HR pace. So, about his IRL numbers
And puts him on pace for (37+((34/162)*(162-90)))=52 home runs for the season.