Quote:
Originally Posted by CBL-Commish
David Newhan had a clause in his minor league deal that if he wasn't called up by the Rangers by June 15th he could opt out. He did, at the age of 30. Up to that point in his career he had 86 MLB plate appearances and a .550 OPS.
The Orioles picked him up, and being the 2004 Orioles, immediately put him in the starting lineup on June 18th. On July 24th he ended the day with a slash line of .403/.447/.612. For a month he hit like Ty Cobb. From then to the end of the '04 season he hit .283 with a .764 OPS. For the remainder of his career he had a .629 OPS, and he retired with a .692.
For a month he was Ty Cobb. For the rest of his career he was Ty Gainey. |
exactly... was he clutch? nope... and any similar sample would need more evidence liek this, but in the absence of evidence it doesn't prove a thing.
now, if oyu go through all the players that have a hot month or two in their early call-ups, then see if they are more or less likely to develop further -- not neccessarily HoF-quality -- that would be useful information.
i think how they do it is a bigger factor than how well they do in such a small sample in the absence of other information... if it's a free-swinger you can be 99+% sure he's a flash in the pan. the qualatative stuff (things a scout would say without a calculator) is more important in a small sample... extremely more important than any small sample stat.