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Do you believe your scout is better than a complete idiot who knows nothing about the players that he's observed?
If yes, start Cardenas.
If no, get a new scout in the off-season.
But, as with all elimination games, be ready with the quick hook. I'd fully expect both of them to pitch in this game as well as your top few relievers.
One possible difference in their performance is their stamina. Cardenas is averaging just about 4.5 innings per start while El-Amin is going about 5.5. Cardenas might be being left in too long which is hurting his performance. Have you noticed that he's performing worse later in games? I can't remember if OOTP has splits per inning or per times facing a batter or per pitch number. It should.
Another potential factor is that Cardenas is a GB pitcher. Do you have a particularly poor infield defense that would impact Cardenas' numbers more than El-Amin's?
I'd probably start Cardenas. Expect him to get through the order once. Should be 2+ innings. Then switch to a reliever you're comfortable having pitch the rest of that 3rd inning and the fourth, then bring in El-Amin to, again, go once through the order. That should be the 5th, 6th, and part of the seventh. Then throw your best relievers the last two plus innings.
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