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Originally Posted by Anyone
Agreeing with Syd but putting it differently,
Given that some sabermetricians like Tom Tango have found support for some level of clutch ability likely existing, and many like Bill James who once insisted there was no such thing essentially now say they aren't sure...
I'd say the most likely possibility is that clutch ability differs among MLB players but is small enough to be very hard to find in statistics. This may be "not choking as much as most players do" or it could be that certain characteristics of clutch situations (like with at least 2 men on, the pitcher has more pressure to throw strikes) are helpful to some hitters, but to some degree it probably exists, but its effect is quite small, small enough that it's really hard to study with enough detail to prove it exists. I think Tango's conclusion was that it exists but is almost definitely smaller than the platoon advantage.
So, if it's a factor in OOTP but quite a small one, then OOTP has it right.
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And like I mentioned before, the magnitude is small enough that even if you knew with certainty that someone was clutch you'd almost always take a good hitter who wasn't over a mediocre hitter who was when it really mattered.
If Mookie Betts choked by 50 points of OPS in the clutch and Brock Holt upped his game 50 points in the same situations, you're still using Betts all day every day.