Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol
Not if Argo's test and results are correct
If there's a right-handed hitter who has IRL stats of a .850 OPS against right-handed pitchers, we should expect him to hit .850 against right-handed pitchers in the game. And, it appears, he does.
But, if there's a switch hitter who has IRL stats of a .850 OPS against right-handed pitchers who we expect to hit .850 against right-handed pitchers in the game, he ends up hitting better than .850.
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Which may or may not a problem. Like I said in the last post when you have a mixed rotation it is hard to say if the taking advantage of the splits is what drives the higher OPS for switch vs. left or right. You just don't know if switching sides means he is really killing it against the 2 or 3 pitchers the player is taking advantage of by switch hitting.
So to me the Reds is the only valid test with 5 RHP and you only see .008 difference in OPS from a switch hitter who is always hitting left and a lefty which is less 1% difference.
So there maybe something here but I don't find it definitive as of yet. I think a test like I described where the controls are tightly set would answer it. Still the no difference when it is the pitchers are neutral suggests it is all from taking advantage of splits. I would guess that .88% difference in switch vs. left against all RHP in the Reds games is just normal game engine variance. Also we don't about bullpens and how this effects the numbers if the batter was facing a mix of potential relief pitchers.