Quote:
Originally Posted by KBLover
I use High accuracy.
Minors and young players are still very much all over, especially if the scout isn't ideal at them (or the budget is bad).
I think with how much analytics is getting into the game, scouting info is getting more accurate.
As far as using your best players...To me, the challenge isn't so much "do I sit Trout because he's in a slump" (because that indeed makes no sense - you have to ride with him and hope the very likely reversal will occur), but "what do I do if this is actually a bad year by Trout...how will I keep the team winning games?"
Where the question gets more interesting is in the mid ranges and lower.
If you have two 50-55 level players and one is slumping and one is streaking and both could play the position in question similarly...what do you do? Likewise, two back ups both around 40, but with different profiles. Or even a streaking 40 vs a slumping 50.
That is where nuances like skill profile, batted ball profile, intangibles, your intuition/preferences, etc. come in to play more. And this is where your scouts opinion can have the most sway. And you'd be surprised how blind the scouts are, especially if they aren't wonderful (i.e. blue rating in whatever category, imo). Double so if you can't afford a good budget for scouting.
Elite vs anyone other than another very, very good player...you play the Elite, imo. I think the only way scouting would impact this is if the scout is mis-rating the elite to the point where he doesn't look elite. But if he's at the majors and been around a while...that's not likely to happen, imo.
As far as stats-only, even then, if Elite has experience and has played up to his billing, his track record will still suggest to stick with him, imo. If Trout batting .230/.300/.380 through May this coming season, people would very likely write that off as a bad slump, given his skill set and track record.
|
stats only will directly correlate to ratings -- if given a large enough sample. simply inevitable based on the game itself and how it creates the outcomes.
it lags behind current ratings, though. you don't see any changes in ratings for months or years, depending on what kind of change it is. plus, you have to figure out when that change occured and discount all stats before that point for a clearer picture of what that player is in this moment (or a few months behind is as best you can hope for)
this is the added difficulty. greater cloud of war... greater inaccuracy of how good they are in any moment -- even with a track record. you will have to flesh out any negative impacts to the player, liek age, through their outcomes, and it will take a year or 2 to know for sure, or you will be trading away a guy who had a bad stretch of 80 games for no reason.
----
barring an unseen injury, you should always play your best player. if it is a toss-up, then you can play musical chairs, but know that statistically it makes no difference. the only time you should waffle is when the 2 choices are nearly equal realtive to context.
now, in real life if you know one guy is going through a divorce and is on a 2-week drunken bender, you know to sit him over a lesser talent if he is in a "slump." ..BWAHAHAH ... or a nagging injury that isn't in the newspapers, etc. This sort of stuff doesn't really exist in the game, so there's not much that can be gained by musical chairs in any predictable/meaningful way.
point is... law of independent results... if no cuasality exists or you can't see any problems in their personal life, there's no reason you ever sit the 'better' player without cause to do so.
you don't go to vegas and bet against the odds just because the last two outcomes played out that way.
you could use a slump to flesh out unreported injuries, but it'd still be a blind guess unless the injury is so bad they guy's outcomes are so bad they are beyond any volatility you'd normally see. ... so, very rarely you'd know for sure.
i'm not a fan of that setting, like TCR. some injuries you can hide, but in general you can see a person's awkward movements compensating for pain or other issues. you would see a batter favoring a leg or a pitcher struggling with velo or mechanics etc.