OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Scounting: Favor Tools vs. Favor Ability vs. Neutral vs OSA

NoOne · 01-31-2020, 04:14 PM

all that does is put a facade over scouting error -- which is based upon your budget and scout. as long as you aren't below baseline, you can safely assume your budget and scout are a high % correct than the osa.

the fact that OSA can be right about some is irrelevant. If your setup has a higher % chance of sucecssfully rating a player, it will always be a higher percentage, and without pulling back the curtain you will never know when it isn't at that particular moment of decision.

so, the osa being right, but at a lower % doesn't mean anything useful other than to avoid looking at the OSA, which will only add confusion.

so, if a good budget and scout is a higher likelihood of being accurate, you should never, never use the OSA... that's like going to vegas and betting against the odds. you will lose more often doing that than betting on the higher percentage chance.

as far as the favor this or favor that... all that does is put a fake facade above and beyond the scouting inaccuracy based on the prospects age or whatever else they use to differentiate between tool and ability.

----

the way eye works in ootp... not the same as real life. or not quite. everythign is part of the same whoel and has to add back upto 1.

the better the player is, the lower you want his eye rating --- up to a point.

... let's say a lower eye reduced bb by 10 (keeping it simple, this is actually a rate, not a #). those are now PAs that have to be divied up into outs, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and anythign else i am missing in proper ratios as dictated by the ratings and competition faced. (errors are calculated/applied after a ball goes into play and needs to be considered, but only 1.5% chance on average, so it doesn't reduce those new opportunities much)

as long as the resulting ball in play outcomes outweigh those lost 10 walks, it is beneficial to your team in ootp -- no argument possible if you know these facts about your player and league context.

a walk is supposedly worth .33 runs (***your league may be different than RL this is also based on average of the league... if you have a better than average team, you should expect this value to be higher, since more opportuniteis and better percentages of following through with those opportunities compared to average with a 'better' team. that's a rising tide. a better team also increases the value of a HR, since people are on base above league average on your 'better' team)

but, keeping it simpler, you only need the equivalent of 3 runs from 10 walks to get to the break-even point where less walks is better for that player. ~average team context

why is this not quite like RL? well, in ootp you can get quite extreme about this with fewer negative repercussions. in RL there have been few players that can swing a bat like a wild, feral animal and have more than 1 or 2 good seasons before pitchers destroy their career with significnatly more sophisticated approach. vlad guerrero is one. and like the guess above, he's an elite talent that can get away with it, but likely would have been better with a bit more discipline, unlike in ootp results.

same reason why jim furyk would have been a better pro golfer had he learned a more repeatable swing. impossible to say it isn't true. his swing is more prone to error all other things remaining the same. being wild at the plate makes you prone to more errors and mistakes - greater opportunities to screw up for no reason other than an unsophisticated approach.

ootp is a giant pie. if you take 10 away over here they get shifted to the other possibilities in proper proportions. use this concept you can quantify what is happening and know for certain, with a bit of research/observation, as to what is best.

it always has to add back up to "1" after an incremental change and all other factors remaining the same. you can predict with confidence.

this helps use the LTM better to, if you fiddle with those. changing one is easy to predict what happens... but start moving more than one and yo h ave to understand where those 'lost' 100 hr go and how that extra '5000' walks league-wide reduces AB, which will reduce ball in play numbers... so that 100 is more likely 150+ lost hr if you make these 2 changes etc etc...

01-31-2020, 04:14 PM	#20
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	all that does is put a facade over scouting error -- which is based upon your budget and scout. as long as you aren't below baseline, you can safely assume your budget and scout are a high % correct than the osa. the fact that OSA can be right about some is irrelevant. If your setup has a higher % chance of sucecssfully rating a player, it will always be a higher percentage, and without pulling back the curtain you will never know when it isn't at that particular moment of decision. so, the osa being right, but at a lower % doesn't mean anything useful other than to avoid looking at the OSA, which will only add confusion. so, if a good budget and scout is a higher likelihood of being accurate, you should never, never use the OSA... that's like going to vegas and betting against the odds. you will lose more often doing that than betting on the higher percentage chance. as far as the favor this or favor that... all that does is put a fake facade above and beyond the scouting inaccuracy based on the prospects age or whatever else they use to differentiate between tool and ability. ---- the way eye works in ootp... not the same as real life. or not quite. everythign is part of the same whoel and has to add back upto 1. the better the player is, the lower you want his eye rating --- up to a point. ... let's say a lower eye reduced bb by 10 (keeping it simple, this is actually a rate, not a #). those are now PAs that have to be divied up into outs, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and anythign else i am missing in proper ratios as dictated by the ratings and competition faced. (errors are calculated/applied after a ball goes into play and needs to be considered, but only 1.5% chance on average, so it doesn't reduce those new opportunities much) as long as the resulting ball in play outcomes outweigh those lost 10 walks, it is beneficial to your team in ootp -- no argument possible if you know these facts about your player and league context. a walk is supposedly worth .33 runs (***your league may be different than RL this is also based on average of the league... if you have a better than average team, you should expect this value to be higher, since more opportuniteis and better percentages of following through with those opportunities compared to average with a 'better' team. that's a rising tide. a better team also increases the value of a HR, since people are on base above league average on your 'better' team) but, keeping it simpler, you only need the equivalent of 3 runs from 10 walks to get to the break-even point where less walks is better for that player. ~average team context why is this not quite like RL? well, in ootp you can get quite extreme about this with fewer negative repercussions. in RL there have been few players that can swing a bat like a wild, feral animal and have more than 1 or 2 good seasons before pitchers destroy their career with significnatly more sophisticated approach. vlad guerrero is one. and like the guess above, he's an elite talent that can get away with it, but likely would have been better with a bit more discipline, unlike in ootp results. same reason why jim furyk would have been a better pro golfer had he learned a more repeatable swing. impossible to say it isn't true. his swing is more prone to error all other things remaining the same. being wild at the plate makes you prone to more errors and mistakes - greater opportunities to screw up for no reason other than an unsophisticated approach. ootp is a giant pie. if you take 10 away over here they get shifted to the other possibilities in proper proportions. use this concept you can quantify what is happening and know for certain, with a bit of research/observation, as to what is best. it always has to add back up to "1" after an incremental change and all other factors remaining the same. you can predict with confidence. this helps use the LTM better to, if you fiddle with those. changing one is easy to predict what happens... but start moving more than one and yo h ave to understand where those 'lost' 100 hr go and how that extra '5000' walks league-wide reduces AB, which will reduce ball in play numbers... so that 100 is more likely 150+ lost hr if you make these 2 changes etc etc...