OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - The Dead Zone: The Philadelphia Phillies (1984-

The_Myth · 01-27-2020, 11:55 PM

Oct. 23, 1985

Alright, tons to talk about.

My score (from whomever) for the season was a 568, which is good. And on this Monday, I had my postmortem with owner Bill Giles. The headlines:

- He’s very happy with the overall performance. Still wants a championship by 1987, though. I hate that he’s demanding us to win two seven-game series.
- He’s glad our farm system has improved (apparently the progressive rankings have us at eighth, which is good), but he wants more home-grown talent on the roster. That’s a personal goal for 1986.
- For some reason he doesn’t consider Dick Howser an upgrade over Paul Owens. Whatever. Bias, I guess.

My new goals are:

1986: Improve my team bullpen ERA. Well, going the young route might hurt this, but we’ll see what the market brings.
1987: Win the championship. Again, sigh.
1987: Sign Steve Carlton to an extension. Heh. I get it: We want him to finish his career a Phillie.
1987: Bring in a manager with a better reputation. Oh good lord.
1987: Build a top-five minor league system. On our way, it seems.
1988: Bring more of your drafted players to your team. Also on our way, it seems.
1991: Build a team that can bring a championship home. Well, I feel like we did that, but sure.

So, hmmm. The manager thing is annoying, but my goal isn’t to just please my boss, so that’s that. Nevertheless, we're on track.

Meanwhile, our fan loyalty is now “great,” while our team focus is “win now!” (well that really runs counter to Giles’ hopes to bring drafted players on board). Our payroll is $10,014,299, fourth in baseball, and our budget for 1986 is about $22 million. After personnel salaries and such, we’ll have about $9 million with which to work. That’s a considerable amount of room with which to work, but this is a big year for arbitration-eligible talent (Kevin Gross, Charles Hudson, and to a lesser extent, Glenn Wilson and the returning Dave Stegman, who tried to get a big payday last year but to no avail).

My minor league affiliates have changed again. The Peninsula Pilots are no longer, while we gain another rookie league team in the Utica Blue Sox. Essentially, I’ll have to make some cuts at the higher levels and fill out the Utica roster with upcoming draft picks.

Coaches I didn’t re-sign are out of here, including Chris Thomas, former Reading manager, who didn’t want to be hitting coach in Portland. And I wasn’t bringing him back otherwise. C’est la vie.

Around the league, Oakland fired manager Alan Merkle, who got just 23 games to close 1985 with Oakland and actually did OK with them (10-13). The players took the dismissal pretty hard. More surprisingly, Dick Williams is out in San Diego. A two-time world champion with Oakland, and the guy who led Montreal in their best years, Williams turned San Diego around late in 1985 to finish with an 88-74 record. I really thought he’d get a chance to see through their revival, but no dice, I guess.

Either way, teams wanting a new skipper will be targeting him, for sure.

Some great news: Kent Tekulve has been awarded Type-A free agent status, making him a no doubter for offering salary arbitration ($500,000). Not as easy a choice: Tony Armas, who is a Type-B but would get $600,000 if he accepts arbitration.

Finally, actual business: I have to either execute or void option years for UL Washington and Scott Sanderson. Easy decisions here:

UL Washington’s team option executed for 1986
Scott Sanderson’s team option executed for 1986

Oct. 24, 1985

Time to begin filling the front office and coaching ranks. My top choice for assistant general manager is former Astros GM Omar Garcia, a 32-year-old who is still learning the ins and outs of the league and didn’t get a fair shake in Houston (one year, for God’s sake). He also thinks like me (speed, defense). He’s coming in for an interview tomorrow.

Meanwhile, I have my postmortem with Dick Howser. Plenty of praise for him. One thing he tells me: “My biggest suggestion for you is don’t shrink if you see an opportunity to get a lot better. You’ve done great so far with that, so I hope you keep that mindset.”

He’ll be someone I chat with regularly concerning our moves this offseason.

Oct. 25, 1985

A trade! And a big one! The Red Sox send Bruce Hurst to Seattle for 1B Alvin Davis and prospect Tom Krause. Hurst is the kind of cost-controlled, young starter that can really help the Mariners get over the hump, while Davis makes sense for a retooling Red Sox squad. The M’s must also feel good about Darnell Coles taking over at first base.

The interview with Omar Garcia goes well, and now we await 41-year-old Jerry Meyer, who was a single-A general manager who loves making deals. He’s a big speed guy (running, not drugs).

Oct. 26, 1985

First, the assistant GM search: The Jerry Meyer interview showed he was inexperienced, but I liked his energy. My final two interview candidates, coming in today, are wild-card 35-year-old Justin Helman (he loves speed and defense, but he’s extremely unproven) and 48-year-old scout John Weekly (also unproven).

After two days of meetings about our arbitration-eligible players, we decide to pursue a long-term deal with Charles Hudson and to go for one-year deals with Kevin Gross, Glenn Wilson, and Dave Stegman. With Gross it’s about consistency over a season. As for the hitters, we’re still uncertain about our short-term futures in center field and right field, and we could still look at other options. But getting agreements on one-year deals with Wilson and Stegman won’t hurt our ability to move any of them, if we wanted to; also, at least we’ll have contracts in place at both of those positions for 1986.

So, first, we go to Gross. He’s 24 and good (lifetime 29-19, 3.10 ERA, 299 K, 121 BB in 440.2 IP) but not an ace. He made $68,800 last year. To compare, Pittsburgh’s Jose DeLeon, also 24, is lifetime 36-24, 2.81 ERA, 532 K, 211 BB in 550.1 IP. He made $73,600 last year. Essentially, if Gross doesn’t get hurt in August, he has comparable rate stats to DeLeon, with likely fewer strikeouts. He and DeLeon should be close to one another financially, and I expect DeLeon's salary to jump to nearly $200K for 1986.

As further comparison, let’s look closer at Hurst, now in Seattle. His lifetime numbers: 867.1 IP, 45-48, 4.15 ERA, 575 K, 247 BB. He’s signed through 1988 and made $256K last season. And that season would be comparable to Gross in 1987, more likely. Gross is worth more than Hurst at the same times in their careers. So … I’m thinking something slightly less than $256K right now is about right. I go $200K for 1986, submitting that as my baseline.

Moving to Stegman. He made $90,000 last year and was worth 0.2 WAR. He declined sharply in the second half, forcing me to play Tony Armas every day. I feel like $150K is as high as I want to go here, so I’ll submit $120K as my baseline.

Next, Glenn Wilson. He made $73,600 last year and was good in the first half before fading. His final value: 1.6 WAR, nearly an everyday player. That tells me he can double up his salary in 1986, bringing him to $150K. That’ll be my baseline for him.

Onto free-agents-to-be. I definitely want to extend salary arbitration to Kent Tekulve. At worst he’s my veteran middle reliever for $500K with a chance to pitch late in games. At best he gets me a first round pick in 1987.

Then there’s Tony Armas. If he accepts arbitration it’s $600K on my payroll. And when I think about it, I’ll probably have room to absorb that, meaning, if I really had to release him, I shouldn’t balk. Meaning, why not, right? If I get the supplemental pick, awesome. If not, I can always just move on. Both will get arbitration offers.

Finally, I decide to not attempt to re-sign minor league free agents (C Mike Martin, SP Kyle Money, SP/RP Rip Rollins, RF Willie Darkis). None of these guys could even stick as starters and/or regulars.

Oh! Charles Hudson. I invite him and a plus-one, as well as his agent and a plus-one, to Sunday’s Eagles game at Veterans Stadium. We have a suite to watch the 3-4 Eagles host the Buffalo Bills. I hope to make significant gains in extension talks.

I go over our team’s agreed-upon framework for a potential Hudson extension. Background: Mike Schmidt and Von Hayes (depending on Schmidt’s option) are on board through 1988, while Paul Molitor can get to 1989. Meanwhile, Hudson (623.1 IP, 39-26, 2.89 ERA, 384 K, 169 BB, or, better than Hurst, and on par with DeLeon, though without the Ks) is a Super Two candidate, meaning he is under our control through 1989, though he’s likely to be worth $750K or more by then. And that’s if he stays on an average path (our projections have him at $315K in 1986, $357K in 1987, $525K in 1988, $767K in 1989).

So we’d love to keep Hudson through 1990 for fewer than our arbitration projections, meaning he’d be under expected value. Thus, the framework:

1986 - $250K
1987 - $250K
1988 - $315K
1989 - $400K
1990 - $500K

I add some bonuses and decide against options. We hope he’ll be interested.

01-27-2020, 11:55 PM	#149
The_Myth Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2019 Location: World Posts: 172	Oct. 23, 1985 Alright, tons to talk about. My score (from whomever) for the season was a 568, which is good. And on this Monday, I had my postmortem with owner Bill Giles. The headlines: - He’s very happy with the overall performance. Still wants a championship by 1987, though. I hate that he’s demanding us to win two seven-game series. - He’s glad our farm system has improved (apparently the progressive rankings have us at eighth, which is good), but he wants more home-grown talent on the roster. That’s a personal goal for 1986. - For some reason he doesn’t consider Dick Howser an upgrade over Paul Owens. Whatever. Bias, I guess. My new goals are: 1986: Improve my team bullpen ERA. Well, going the young route might hurt this, but we’ll see what the market brings. 1987: Win the championship. Again, sigh. 1987: Sign Steve Carlton to an extension. Heh. I get it: We want him to finish his career a Phillie. 1987: Bring in a manager with a better reputation. Oh good lord. 1987: Build a top-five minor league system. On our way, it seems. 1988: Bring more of your drafted players to your team. Also on our way, it seems. 1991: Build a team that can bring a championship home. Well, I feel like we did that, but sure. So, hmmm. The manager thing is annoying, but my goal isn’t to just please my boss, so that’s that. Nevertheless, we're on track. Meanwhile, our fan loyalty is now “great,” while our team focus is “win now!” (well that really runs counter to Giles’ hopes to bring drafted players on board). Our payroll is $10,014,299, fourth in baseball, and our budget for 1986 is about $22 million. After personnel salaries and such, we’ll have about $9 million with which to work. That’s a considerable amount of room with which to work, but this is a big year for arbitration-eligible talent (Kevin Gross, Charles Hudson, and to a lesser extent, Glenn Wilson and the returning Dave Stegman, who tried to get a big payday last year but to no avail). My minor league affiliates have changed again. The Peninsula Pilots are no longer, while we gain another rookie league team in the Utica Blue Sox. Essentially, I’ll have to make some cuts at the higher levels and fill out the Utica roster with upcoming draft picks. Coaches I didn’t re-sign are out of here, including Chris Thomas, former Reading manager, who didn’t want to be hitting coach in Portland. And I wasn’t bringing him back otherwise. C’est la vie. Around the league, Oakland fired manager Alan Merkle, who got just 23 games to close 1985 with Oakland and actually did OK with them (10-13). The players took the dismissal pretty hard. More surprisingly, Dick Williams is out in San Diego. A two-time world champion with Oakland, and the guy who led Montreal in their best years, Williams turned San Diego around late in 1985 to finish with an 88-74 record. I really thought he’d get a chance to see through their revival, but no dice, I guess. Either way, teams wanting a new skipper will be targeting him, for sure. Some great news: Kent Tekulve has been awarded Type-A free agent status, making him a no doubter for offering salary arbitration ($500,000). Not as easy a choice: Tony Armas, who is a Type-B but would get $600,000 if he accepts arbitration. Finally, actual business: I have to either execute or void option years for UL Washington and Scott Sanderson. Easy decisions here: UL Washington’s team option executed for 1986 Scott Sanderson’s team option executed for 1986 Oct. 24, 1985 Time to begin filling the front office and coaching ranks. My top choice for assistant general manager is former Astros GM Omar Garcia, a 32-year-old who is still learning the ins and outs of the league and didn’t get a fair shake in Houston (one year, for God’s sake). He also thinks like me (speed, defense). He’s coming in for an interview tomorrow. Meanwhile, I have my postmortem with Dick Howser. Plenty of praise for him. One thing he tells me: “My biggest suggestion for you is don’t shrink if you see an opportunity to get a lot better. You’ve done great so far with that, so I hope you keep that mindset.” He’ll be someone I chat with regularly concerning our moves this offseason. Oct. 25, 1985 A trade! And a big one! The Red Sox send Bruce Hurst to Seattle for 1B Alvin Davis and prospect Tom Krause. Hurst is the kind of cost-controlled, young starter that can really help the Mariners get over the hump, while Davis makes sense for a retooling Red Sox squad. The M’s must also feel good about Darnell Coles taking over at first base. The interview with Omar Garcia goes well, and now we await 41-year-old Jerry Meyer, who was a single-A general manager who loves making deals. He’s a big speed guy (running, not drugs). Oct. 26, 1985 First, the assistant GM search: The Jerry Meyer interview showed he was inexperienced, but I liked his energy. My final two interview candidates, coming in today, are wild-card 35-year-old Justin Helman (he loves speed and defense, but he’s extremely unproven) and 48-year-old scout John Weekly (also unproven). After two days of meetings about our arbitration-eligible players, we decide to pursue a long-term deal with Charles Hudson and to go for one-year deals with Kevin Gross, Glenn Wilson, and Dave Stegman. With Gross it’s about consistency over a season. As for the hitters, we’re still uncertain about our short-term futures in center field and right field, and we could still look at other options. But getting agreements on one-year deals with Wilson and Stegman won’t hurt our ability to move any of them, if we wanted to; also, at least we’ll have contracts in place at both of those positions for 1986. So, first, we go to Gross. He’s 24 and good (lifetime 29-19, 3.10 ERA, 299 K, 121 BB in 440.2 IP) but not an ace. He made $68,800 last year. To compare, Pittsburgh’s Jose DeLeon, also 24, is lifetime 36-24, 2.81 ERA, 532 K, 211 BB in 550.1 IP. He made $73,600 last year. Essentially, if Gross doesn’t get hurt in August, he has comparable rate stats to DeLeon, with likely fewer strikeouts. He and DeLeon should be close to one another financially, and I expect DeLeon's salary to jump to nearly $200K for 1986. As further comparison, let’s look closer at Hurst, now in Seattle. His lifetime numbers: 867.1 IP, 45-48, 4.15 ERA, 575 K, 247 BB. He’s signed through 1988 and made $256K last season. And that season would be comparable to Gross in 1987, more likely. Gross is worth more than Hurst at the same times in their careers. So … I’m thinking something slightly less than $256K right now is about right. I go $200K for 1986, submitting that as my baseline. Moving to Stegman. He made $90,000 last year and was worth 0.2 WAR. He declined sharply in the second half, forcing me to play Tony Armas every day. I feel like $150K is as high as I want to go here, so I’ll submit $120K as my baseline. Next, Glenn Wilson. He made $73,600 last year and was good in the first half before fading. His final value: 1.6 WAR, nearly an everyday player. That tells me he can double up his salary in 1986, bringing him to $150K. That’ll be my baseline for him. Onto free-agents-to-be. I definitely want to extend salary arbitration to Kent Tekulve. At worst he’s my veteran middle reliever for $500K with a chance to pitch late in games. At best he gets me a first round pick in 1987. Then there’s Tony Armas. If he accepts arbitration it’s $600K on my payroll. And when I think about it, I’ll probably have room to absorb that, meaning, if I really had to release him, I shouldn’t balk. Meaning, why not, right? If I get the supplemental pick, awesome. If not, I can always just move on. Both will get arbitration offers. Finally, I decide to not attempt to re-sign minor league free agents (C Mike Martin, SP Kyle Money, SP/RP Rip Rollins, RF Willie Darkis). None of these guys could even stick as starters and/or regulars. Oh! Charles Hudson. I invite him and a plus-one, as well as his agent and a plus-one, to Sunday’s Eagles game at Veterans Stadium. We have a suite to watch the 3-4 Eagles host the Buffalo Bills. I hope to make significant gains in extension talks. I go over our team’s agreed-upon framework for a potential Hudson extension. Background: Mike Schmidt and Von Hayes (depending on Schmidt’s option) are on board through 1988, while Paul Molitor can get to 1989. Meanwhile, Hudson (623.1 IP, 39-26, 2.89 ERA, 384 K, 169 BB, or, better than Hurst, and on par with DeLeon, though without the Ks) is a Super Two candidate, meaning he is under our control through 1989, though he’s likely to be worth $750K or more by then. And that’s if he stays on an average path (our projections have him at $315K in 1986, $357K in 1987, $525K in 1988, $767K in 1989). So we’d love to keep Hudson through 1990 for fewer than our arbitration projections, meaning he’d be under expected value. Thus, the framework: 1986 - $250K 1987 - $250K 1988 - $315K 1989 - $400K 1990 - $500K I add some bonuses and decide against options. We hope he’ll be interested.