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Originally Posted by kevrock
Conversely, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a 0-3 team come back in dozens upon dozens of years.
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In OOTP? I've seen it at least four or five times over the past few years. Off the top of my head, the frequency seems to be closer to the "1 in 16" that I referenced in my earlier post than the "one in whatever" it is that has happened in MLB history.
Also it seems to me that teams down 3-0 are much more likely to extend the series in OOTP than MLB. 28 of the 33 series in MLB history (excluding last few seasons) were sweeps. That seems statistically strange so again, it is possible that the sample size in MLB is just too low to draw many conclusions. However I am quite sure that the amount of teams in OOTP to start 0-3 in a series and then win game four is going to be a number close to 50%.
Quote:
The real story is the distribution:
Series that made it to a fifth game
Five of 33
Series that made it to a sixth game
Three of 33
Series that made it to a seventh game
One of 33
That's kind of bizarre. If we use the flawed 45-percent model, we still should have had about 14 series that made it to a fifth game. About six or seven of them should have made it to a sixth game. About three of them should have made it to a seventh game. Instead, 28 series out of 33 ended in a four-game sweep, as if the other team just ... let go.
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https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/10...eason-baseball