A short while ago I posted a thread on pitch types, and how they had more of an effect on OOTP than I thought.
Here's the thread. On page two I actually ranked the different pitches.
Well I'm back at it again with more testing. This time I was wondering if FIP was actually fielding independent, or if it is a flawed statistic.
What got me thinking is that Nolan Ryan in my dynasty is striking out guys a lot less than he should be, and I wagered it was because my defense was too good. If my outfielder makes a great play for the third out, then Ryan doesn't get to strikeout the next batter to pad his stats, right? Makes sense.
Remember that the components of FIP are K's, BB's, and HR's. So if Nolan Ryan is striking out guys less, then does that mean his FIP, and therefore his WAR, is worse off? But then I also thought that if defense is good, then innings don't go on as long and the pitcher theoretically doesn't give up as many walks or homers either. So how does it all wash out in the end? I decided to do some testing.
For this test I used the 1995 Atlanta Braves, a model choice for pitching. I was watching Smoltz (strikeout artist), Glavine (finesse pitcher), and Maddux (all-time great). I also looked at Wohlers (lights-out closer with average control) for a reliever perspective.
I ran three simulations of 10,000 games against the San Diego Padres -- one with the vanilla Braves, one with a super defense, and one with a very bad defense. All numbers were "within reason" so it wasn't like maxed and minimum ratings across the board. I didn't touch catcher ratings, because they are really the biggest wildcard in OOTP and I didn't want to muck around with that variable.
Sidenote: Tony Gwynn batted .428 against the bad defense!
What I found was interesting, and I've attached the results in a photo. Conclusions:
- FIP really holds up for pitchers no matter what kind of defense is behind you, at least in OOTP. You'll see all the Braves pitchers had FIP numbers across the board that were very close.
- As expected, strikeouts were higher with a bad defense. But this was almost directly offset with a tiny bit higher HR/9 rate, and a noticeably higher BB/9 rate.
- If anything when it comes to a bad defense, a super elite pitcher like Maddux gets more of a chance to prove his dominance, while a finesse pitcher like Glavine will get killed by BABIP over and over because he doesn't strike guys out.
- In OOTP I would say that in the long run, FIP is definitely a measure of how good your pitcher is, so long as he is not a knuckleballer (see my other thread).
Now, I'm sure you're wondering the answer to the real question: After 30,000 simulations of the Braves against the Padres, did Greg Maddux ever strike out Tony Gwynn? Well, I didn't save the box scores, so I guess we'll never know.