Nov. 8, 1984
Free agency has begun. Rick Reuschel decided against our arbitration offer, so we could score a 1986 supplemental pick if he goes elsewhere. Also, there was a trade: Houston sent RF Kevin Bass to Milwaukee for C Bill Schroeder and RHP Rich Buonantony. Houston lost their catcher, Ron Hassey, to free agency. Interesting way to make up for that.
But now, let’s talk strategy. It’s an important offseason for us. Taking stock of the roster, here’s how I’d break down our assets:
Likely contributors to a contending team
2B - Juan Samuel
3B/1B - Mike Schmidt
LF/RF/CF - Von Hayes
SP - John Denny
SP - Charles Hudson
SP - Kevin Gross
SP - Steve Carlton
RP - Larry Andersen
RP - Bill Campbell
RP - Tug McGraw
Unknown assets
C/1B - Darren Daulton
C/1B/LF/RF - John Russell
C/1B/LF/RF/3B - Mike Diaz
SS/2B/3B - Steve Jeltz
LF/RF/CF - Jeff Stone
RF/LF - Glenn Wilson
SP - Curt Young
SP - Kelly Downs
RP - Don Carman
RP - Chuck Cary
RP - Karl Best
RP - Kenneth Walker
Low-value assets
1B/LF/3B - Len Matuszek
RF/LF/3B - Joe Lefebvre
CF/LF/RF - Dave Stegman
If I’m going to contend, I need more than Schmidt, Samuel, and Hayes as likely offensive contributors. I’m not quite there yet on Daulton, but I believe he can be a contributor in 1985. I don’t want to count on any of the other unknown or mediocre assets to make the leap, though. So, let’s say I need at least two players I feel confident about as contributors in 1985.
With the pitching staff, I’m a bit more assured. I could use at least one more good reliever, though two and an additional starter would be terrific.
That means, at minimum, if I’m to be competitive in 1985, I’ll need two hitters and one reliever. Additional parts may increase my chances. Positions I could upgrade include catcher (low), first base (high), shortstop (high), corner outfield (high), and center field (medium). At baseline - without additions - those spots would be filled by Daulton, Matuszek, Jeltz, Wilson and Lefebvre, and Stegman. So I need better than that.
Organizationally we prefer speed and defense. A plus eye and/or contact would be great. Power isn’t necessary but welcome. On the mound, we want control first, then decent stuff and movement.
Let’s go through the free agent market piecemeal. Regardless of position, here are
the top speed assets out there:
- Bobby Brown - LF/CF/RF/1B/3B - 30/30 - 80 SPD/75 STL/65 RUN
- Alan Wiggins - 1B/2B/CF - 43/43 - 80/70/70
- Dave Collins - LF - 45/45 - 75/70/55
- Rhadames Mills - LF/2B/3B/SS/RF/CF - 23/23 - 75/70/55
- Omar Moreno - LF/RF/CF - 35/35 - 75/70/65
- Bill Almon - SS/1B/3B/LF/RF - 49/49 - 70/65/65
- Alfredo Griffin - 2B/SS - 37/37 - 65/65/40
- Tim Ireland - SS - 20/20 - 65/60/60
- Donald Stearns - 2B/RF/3B - 20/20 - 65/80/70
- John Altobelli - LF - 20/20 - 60/65/50
- Dave Concepcion - 3B/SS - 38/38 - 60/65/55
- Jack Daugherty - LF/1B/RF - 24/36 - 60/70/55
- Mike Ibarra - C/1B/3B - 20/20 - 60/50/55
- Ken Landreaux - LF/RF/CF - 46/46 - 60/65/70
- Mitchell Page - 1B/LF - 31/31 - 60/70/65
- UL Washington - SS/3B/2B - 43/43 - 60/65/65
Conventional wisdom says I should be targeting Almon as a shortstop. He’s 31, spending his last two seasons in Oakland. Career he’s a .258/.302/.341 hitter but had his best slugging season last year with the Athletics, hitting .250/.285/.374 with 11 home runs. Not the best offensive profile, but his defense is good.
Essentially, with shortstops, there's a top tier with players like Cal Ripken Jr., Ozzie Smith, Tony Fernandez, Alan Trammell, Dickie Thon, and Robin Yount. (Whether you want to put those guys in sub-tiers is another matter.) After that top layer, there's the start of a large field of shortstops, and Almon is probably atop that group. So we're talking the best second-division shortstop available, and there are no first-division guys out in the market.
Glancing at the trade market, there isn’t a shortstop (who isn’t worth an arm and a leg) that I would go after that would be better than Almon on a short-term deal. Only one player makes sense in the long run, and that’s Minnesota’s Greg Gagne (39/53, 60/60/60, 60 SS). But Gagne is unproven in the majors, getting only 29 plate appearances in 1983 and 45 last season. He could break out in 1985, but again, I can’t have a ton of unknown assets.
Almon has 45 contact but 50 eye, and he has 55 gap and raw power, so maybe I’d get him at the peak of a power surge. As he’s leading the middle of the pack, he'd be fine for, say, two years guaranteed. He wants $700K and is a Type B free agent; I think I can make it work.
Otherwise, I like UL Washington enough as a stopgap. He’s a 43/43 but plays good defense and has a 50 eye. He’s also a Type B, but he’d only want $390K.
Also on this list, I’m intrigued by Wiggins, who was in my rundown for center fielders but is more a 1B now and is out for seven months with a knee injury. He’s super fast and puts the ball in play, though his contact rating is just a 45. Still, he’s a $160K gamble, apparently, so if I don’t have any good 1B options, I may take a flier.
Finally, Landreaux is an option at a corner spot. He doesn’t strike out much, and he does get his bat on the ball a bit with 50 contact. He’s probably more a fourth outfielder type, so maybe I don’t need him, but is he better than Glenn Wilson? Not sure.
Top positional defenders (non-catcher) include:
- Glenn Hubbard - 2B - 49/52 - 75 DEF
- Mickey Hatcher - LF/RF/1B - 45/45 - 75
- Tom Paciorek - 1B/3B/LF/RF - 42/42 - 70
- Lee Mazzilli - LF/CF/1B - 46/46 - 65
- Dave Collins - LF - 45/45 - 65
Nothing here that I’d really want. Maybe Paciorek, but he’s 38 and a bit of an afterthought right now.
Finally,
top contact hitters include:
- Juan Beniquez - 1B/3B/LF/RF/CF - 49/49 - 75 CON
- Denny Walling - 3B/1B - 43/43 - 65
Lest I forget the
big names on offense:
- Paul Molitor - 3B - 55/59 - 55 DEF, 60 CON, 55 GAP, 45 RAW, 50 EYE, 55 Ks, 55 SPD
- Fred Lynn - RF/CF - 55/55 - 50 DEF, 55 CON, 40 GAP, 65 RAW, 60 EYE, 45 Ks, 30 SPD
- Cliff Johnson - 1B - 53/53 - 35 DEF, 55 CON, 50 GAP, 60 RAW, 60 EYE, 50 Ks, 20 SPD
Any one of these players would be an instant offensive upgrade, but outside of Molitor, I’m not sure I’d get a great return on investment. Lynn is 32 and in decline, while Johnson is 37 and a Type A. Molitor is 28 and a Type B, though he’s apparently a diva. Is that worth it? I might get in early to gauge the market.
I like Beniquez a lot, who last season in California hit .325/.360/.416 with 22 XBH in 446 PA. The guy can hit and might be had on a one-year deal with an option. I’d take that. Also, no compensation.
As for pitching,
here are the top control arms:
- Dan Quisenberry - RP - 61/61 - 80 CTR
- Mike Caldwell - SP - 41/41 - 70
- Gene Garber - RP - 57/57 - 70
- Donnie Moore - RP - 57/57 - 70
- Doyle Alexander - SP - 50/50 - 65
- Danny Darwin - SP - 49/49 - 65
- Scott Sanderson - SP - 51/51 - 65
- Don Sutton - SP - 52/52 - 65
- Bob Welch - SP - 59/59 - 65
Welch is the top dog on the market and wants more than $1 million. He’s also a Type A. I’m trying to avoid signing any and all Type A guys right now, as I need to continue to stock my farm system and need first- and second-round picks.
I like Sanderson, who is out up to three months with a UCL injury. Outside of that he has two decent pitches (fastball, curveball) and a third that works (slider). He has strikeout stuff, but he’s also a finesse guy. I believe in him.
Also, I like Darwin. He pitched well for a bad Rangers team in 1982 and ‘83, though he slipped a shoulder injury in ‘84. He has three pitches, all decent enough. He’s a Type B.
On the relief side I want to stay away from Quisenberry, even if Howser obviously loves him. My reports say Q only has the slider left in the tank, and he struck out just 15 in 55 innings last season; plus, he’s Type A guy. I’d rather look at Donnie Moore, a no-compensation setup-quality arm with a good fastball and forkball.
Moving to good movement, I like Tim Stoddard (RP, 53/53, 65 STF, 55 MVM, 40 CTR), who struck out 50 in 57.2 innings for Baltimore in 1983, then lost all of ‘84 with a UCL injury. Since my pitching staff is in good shape, give me the injury comebacks.
Before the day ends, I check up on my targets:
Paul Molitor - In the conversation for now. His agent Ron Simon says anyone interested should fly out to visit, so I'll be heading to Minnesota to visit with the third baseman in a couple days.
I’m thinking about a three-year deal with fourth-year option totaling $3.5M, though I may have to go another year with him. I’ve heard he wants four guaranteed. We can find common ground, but if it gets out of hand, I'm easily out.
Bill Almon - I’m serious about my interest here. He wants five years and $3.5M. I’d rather do two guaranteed, full stop, but I’ll keep the annual at his $700K annual demand. I submit the offer.
Fred Lynn - I go for a year with an option, fearing any long-term deal here. He wants six years right now. We’ll hold off.
Juan Beniquez - He wants three years and $2.1M. Not bad, but I’d rather do the same one and one. It doesn’t take too much leg pulling, as he goes for $550K in year one and a $650K option in year two, with a buyout of $125K. I’m hesitant to give in so early, so I’m gonna take my chances and wait a few days here.
I’ll wait on pitching until Welch and Quisenberry set the markets.
Nov. 9, 1984
Beniquez’s agent wants to talk. Thirsty, I see. I’ll give it another two days.
Nov. 10, 1984
Just checking out my depth, and looking toward minor league free agents, I know I’d like another starting pitcher, two relievers, a veteran catcher or two, a middle infielder, and a corner infielder, at least.
So I offer some minor league contracts to:
- Mike Martin - C - 27/29
- Bob Kearney - C - 36/37
- Alan Bannister - LF/RF/1B/CF/2B/SS - 36/36
- Bobby Brown - LF/CF/RF/1B/3B - 30/30
- Bob Long - RP - 29/29
Nov. 11, 1984
Flying out to Minnesota this morning to meet with Paul Molitor and his agent Ron Simon. A quick two days and one night out there.
Meanwhile, still no movement on the market. Checking back in with Beniquez, I can do $520K in year one and an option of $635K in year two. No offer yet. Going to hold.
After landing I go back to Lynn, and another conversation about a year with an option leads to frustration. He wants at least three years with a player option. Agent says they have other teams on the line and may be moving on from us. Okay. We’ll wait a little longer.