[Bub13]

Off-Season Report Part 4: The Final Chapter

Around the League:

...those autumnal owner vaccinations must have worn off, as Austin owner Charlie Monfort passed away in early February. To the surprise of no one, his son, Charlie Monfort, Jr, will take the reins. He's generous, hands-off, tolerant, likes babies and sunset walks on the beach, and wants a playoff team. Austin made the post-season in '43, so it's possible, but the last time they went before that was...uh, 2021. Bold approach: The 22-Year Plan.
...another former Isle is off the dole: Aaron Little has signed with his hometown Tigers for two years and $5.0M. He wants to start (like he wanted to here), but is best suited as a backup corner infielder and rah-rah team guy. Ex-Isles still waiting for the call are Kyle "Mr 7 At Bats" Crowl, Ian "The CF of the Future Until He Wasn't" McGowan, and Travis "First Draft Pick Ever" McArthur. All are still decent (although TMac is old now) but shouldn't wait for any "Old Home Week" phone calls from me.
...Richmond 1B Bruce Calhoon broke his foot changing a flat tire. The tire, described as "slumped and defeated," coud not be reached for comment.
...Philly signed pitcher Roberto Maldonado to a 3-year, $25M deal. He's an outspoken potty-mouthed junkballer who doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of hits, but will probably win 20 games a year for the powerhouse Phils.
...the AL West arms race continues, with Seattle signing power-hitting catcher Arturo Sena (7 years, $135M). Not a clubhouse guy, and doesn't hit for average, but somehow has three Gold Gloves and earns about 5 WAR a season. There's a lot of power (most of it old tho) in the M's lineup now, although it doesn't look as though they'll hit for much average.
...one trade has finally garnered some interest: Miami sent 1B/DH Matt Anderson and a prospect to Milwaukee for pitcher Travis Calhoun. Anderson, 39, is still a powerful hitter (.307/36/117), and the prospect is a solid starting prospect. Calhoun, 30, is a #3 or so SP. Getting more pitching is always a good thing, but Anderson was still the best hitter in their lineup and Calhoun doesn't appreciably improve their rotation. I only hope Anderson isn't impeded in his pursuit of 3000 hits; he's just over 200 away.
...Toronto signed former Boston loudmouth Robby Liantonio for two years, $18.4M. RL's a power pitcher, and I briefly entertained signing him (why? see below, sigh) until I noticed that he a) hasn't had an ERA below 4.7 in seven seasons, b) gives up home runs in bushels, and c) is a certified pain in the neck. I'll take my chances elsewhere...

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Around the Islands:

...we didn't do much with the rest of the off-season. A few new minor league free agents, one waiver claim, and one new contract. The waiver claim was OF Brian Ware from Pittsburgh. Ware looks like a minor league lifer at this point, but he's got huge power potential, and so might have a future on the big league bench one day. But it's an outside shot. We also extended pitcher Shamar Jackson with a 7-year, $39M deal, taking off a couple arbitration years, but at an affordable price. He's 25, so this takes him through age 32 at less than $6M per. Pretty good deal, I think, for a guy who's a middle-rotation guy at worst.
...Spring Training saw us go 20-10. We hit the tar out of the ball, and the pitching was passable, with some really nice springs for some guys, and some disappointments for others. (Namely, all my new relievers stunk.) And despite me saying above that we "didn't do much" with the spring, we did do one thing really well, and often: get hurt. To wit: 1B Adam Groff missed 2+ weeks with two minor injuries, and will miss opening day. Not a good sign for the season, imo. Catcher Rob Rich also missed two weeks, but is healthy again. SS Rich Stoneback, however, is out for the first three weeks of the season. SP Dennis Perry gave up zero runs (and just one hit) in two starts, but went out for nearly the entire season with elbow trouble. He may be back for the post-season, should we get there. And SP hopeful Jonathan Ashton, throwing well enough to earn a spot, blew out his elbow (again) and will miss 12 months. Ashton, a 1st round pick in '45, has pitched 14, 14, 11, and 1 games in his time as our prospect, and now will make exactly 0 appearances this year. He is just 20, and his ratings went up in our latest scouting report, but these injuries problems are likely a sign of a doomed career.
...those last two injuries, to Perry and Ashton, mean I'm looking for help at the bottom of the rotation. Two hopefuls, Ben Germann and Angel Cordova, flat out stunk during their spring starts. A third, Shaun Gates, looked better but didn't wow anybody. I didn't give OF Phil Lasky a start, but I might if no one else steps up in April. I do have an offer on the table to a free agent, but he's kept me on hold for over a week now... Stay tuned here. [EDIT: And Oakland, having just lost #2 SP Jim Schwartz to injury, is now bidding on this dude. STOP.]

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More League Musings

...It's Opening Day Eve, and the final pre-season predictions, pontifications, and wild-ass guesses (WAGs) are in. MLB says Boston and the Yankees had the best off-seasons, gaining 11.7 and 11.5 WAR, respectively. Boston added two SP, a 2B, 1B, and an OF, while the Yanks snagged six pitchers with positive WAR from '47 and a couple of backup OF. Arizona had by far the worst off-season, losing 15.7 WAR, including last season's C, 1B, 3B, SS, and three RP worth 4.4 WAR. They were in the wildcard hunt until fading late, finishing at 79-83. They've only added a decent 3B, some middling pitchers, and two terrible catchers, both from the Yankees. There are no promising rookies to add to that, so expect another dreary summer in the desert.
...doubling down on the WAR news, MLB then puts NYY and BOS at the top of the AL East in their overall pre-season predictions. They also have us winning 100 games and taking our division. Fingers crossed. KC figures to take the Central, and DET, MIL, and OAK look like the other contenders. In the NL, the pundits have PHI, CIN, and SD winning their divisions, with strong challenges from ATL, PIT, and LA. Arizona figures to come in last in the West, but STL will take the "worst of" title, with 100 losses. Again, fingers crossed.
...probably the most surprising news is that our prospect system comes in 7th overall, right where we were last season. We do have five players in the top 100, but the high ranking is largely due to Jules Medici being named the #1 prospect in baseball. He's not yet 18, but did manage to get through the winter and spring scouting reports without his ceilings dropping a lick, so...maybe he's legit? If so, someone uncovered a real gem for once. The three next top guys are all pitchers, and all in Chicago: Cubs SP Mike Grimshaw (#2) looks like a stud, while White Sox hurlers Ben O'Neal (#3) and Burton Dick (#4) are future stars.

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Opening Day Roster

The roster could be in flux pretty quickly if some guys don't perform early, and I really don't like the look of the bottom of my rotation right now. (That one free agent is proving a bit more savvy in negotiating than I hoped...) The starting lineup on Opening Day won't include two regulars, as 1B Adam Groff will miss a day, and SS Rich Stoneback three weeks. NO ONE ELSE CAN GET HURT, THAT IS AN ORDER.

As usual, players listed with handedness, salary, last year's stats and WAR, and some fun commentary. Starters are underlined.

BATTERS:

C Rob Rich, 27, LH, $4.5M (thru '51), .260/.300/.344, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 0.7 WAR. My owner has a standing order to improve this position, and if Rich doesn't return to his .300 average (or come close), then I'll definitely be looking for an upgrade come November. He is a superb receiver, however, and strikes out less than 40 times a season, a rarity in this age. He's been a platoon guy for three seasons, but his ratings look better against LHP than I remember, so I'm going to play him more often this season, at least to start with.

C Dave McCollum, 27, RH, $850k (arb), .250/.313/.398, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 0.8 WAR. Team captain, and hits well enough to stay on board. Just average behind the plate, which will cost him some PT this year, unless Rich stinks it up. There's no one in AAA pushing to replace him.

1B Adam Groff, 34, LH, $37.5M (thru '53), .385/.473/.671 (371 AB), 27 HR, 95 RBI, 6.7 WAR. Tremendous year in '47, when healthy. Has always battled injuries, and my fear is this is only getting worse with age. Still the face of the franchise, and is closing in on shoo-in status for the Hall. We'll need him healthy if we're going to have a chance at winning it all, frankly.

DH/1B Jonathan Klump, 27, LH, $5.25M (arb), .282/.350/.473, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 1.8 WAR. His power never developed quite as I hoped, but in a good year he could pop 30, I believe. Strikes out a bit too much, but gets on base and lines a lot of doubles. Fan favorite.

2B Josh Matson, 24, SH, minor league deal, .284, 13 HR, 39 doubles 70 RBI combined AAA/AA. First round pick from '46. Barring other injuries, could be the first sent down once Stoneback returns. Once fully developed, looks like a solid hitter with about average power, but won't take a walk. Good runner, just fair on defence. If he fully develops, he'll take over from Rangel, although the latter's defence is far superior.

2B Manny Rangel, 27, RH, $3M (arb), .262/.343/.382, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 3.5 WAR. Looked solid (but faded down the stretch) in his first full year in MLB. Also won a Gold Glove. Hitting is decent, but not so solid as to not get pushed every spring training. Another guy who needs to cut down on the whiffs.

3B/1B/DH Dante Padilla, 24, RH, $500k (arb), .247/.311/.429, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 0.9 WAR. Will get starts at third, with Stoneback on the DL, to open the season. Still projects to become a home run machine, and one who won't fan much at all. If he can get his average up and keep that SLG pct up, I will overlook his tin glove. Rocket arm at third too. Needs to develop more against RHP, truth be told.

SS/3B J.J. Simmons, 25, RH, $12.5M (thru '56), .303/.407/.397, 0 HR, 36 RBI, 4.3 WAR. Hasn't come close to repeating his .350 average from his rookie year, but he hits over .300, hits doubles, runs well, is a dynamite fielder, and walks 2-3x more than he fans. (Just 19 K last season.) Hasn't homered since '44, tho. Will likely slide back to third when Stoney returns, but frankly is good enough to be a GG candidate anywhere he plays.

IF Marcus Walker, 33, LH, $1.1M (thru '48), .236/.331/.398, 16 HR, 49 RBI, 1.2 WAR (with NYY). Free agent signing, as my two prospect IF (both on the roster to start the season however) don't look quite ready yet. Probably won't hit for average, but gets on base, has some power, and is a solid fielder at the 'skill' positions. Exactly what you want in a utility guy.

IF Bob Goodloe, 24, LH, $500k (arb), .276/.328/.461, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 14 SB (AAA Santa Barbara). Former first round pick, but now projects as a utility guy and captain material. Decent fielder, but best suited for the right side, rather than short (where he's played in the minors). Either he or Matson will go back to AAA with Stoney's return.

LF Cameron Daley, 24, RH, $500k (thru '53, jumps to $3.6M next year), .335/.364/.483, 14 HR, 83 RBI, 17 SB, 3.1 WAR. Played his way into a starting role early on and won Rookie of the Year. Limited to LF due to average range and arm. Power looks to be going up still, so fingers crossed for a possible 20 HR season? Just hit .300 again...

OF Jerry Cappuccilli, 25, LH, $500k (arb), .329/.378/.500, 2 HR, 11 RBI in 76 AB (plus .326 with 18 HR in AAA). Our #4 prospect, who really jumped up in my estimation in the last two seasons. Wants to start, but isn't quite there yet. Still, the scouts rate him nearly on par with Daley, and he can play (but not at a high level) center too. Has leveled out his L/R splits somewhat, no longer looks like a liability against portsiders.

CF Jim Klein, 28, RH, $5.1M (thru '51), .289/.340/.388, 4 HR, 43 RBI, 17 SB, 1.5 WAR. Returns for his 5th season in center, and struggled with injuries last year for the first time. Lost a bit of range, too, from the look of things. Failed to hit .300 for the first time, so I'm looking for a bounceback season. Not a power hitter, but did hit 11 HR a few years ago.

OF/DH Phil Lasky, 26, LH, $500k (arb), .314/.362/.479, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 1.8 WAR (315 AB). Was incredibly productive in his 300+ at bats, and will once again push for more playing time. Doesn't hit LHP as well as Cappuccilli, but is the better fielder. With both due to cash in with 'real' contracts next year, it's possible one could be dealt sooner than later. If both hit over .300 again, it's a problem I'll relish having.

RF Josh Frederick, 25, LH, $500k (arb), .243/.302/.412, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 136 AB (plus .295/15/50 in AAA). Former first round pick (as a pitcher, no less) and future team captain, and looks like the real deal. Didn't hit so well last year, but has developed more and is the best fielder of the Fred/Capp/Lasky triumvirate. Another LH batter who isn't as good against LHP, but he'll get chances to start against them out of the gate. Sink or swim, big guy.

Injured:
SS Rich Stoneback, 30, RH, $22.5M (thru '55), .302/.387/.531, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 4.3 WAR (75 games, 288 AB). Power, average, OBP, defense (3x GG winner), and solid teammate. Has played just 114 and 75 games the last two seasons, which is worrisome. Still, if healthy again could definitely reproduce the 42 HR and 8.7 WAR season from '45. Will miss three weeks.

PITCHERS:

SP Ryan Ratliff, 27, RH, $2.97M (arb), 21-6, 3.76, 203 K, 208 IP, 33 BB, 4.2 WAR. Not really ace material, but will be the Opening Day starter and de facto #1 pitcher on the staff. Superb control, walked just 1.4 per 9 IP. Not a groundballer, so gives up some HR when he's off, but really shines with our solid team defense behind him.

SP Shamar Jackson, 25, RH, $500k (thru '55, jumps to $5.47 next season), 17-12, 3.73, 200 K, 234 IP, 3.4 WAR. Knuckleballer, but adds a solid change and slider in the mix occasionally. Grinder, a real sparkplug guy. Like Ratliff, not ace material, but definitely a solid second-line SP. With us without a true ace, we'll rely on him heavily again.

SP Eric Jones, 31, LH, $11M (thru '48), 14-8, 3.95, 150 K, 214 IP, 3.2 WAR. Every year I pick on him, and nearly every year he delivers 3-4 WAR. His ERA bounces up and down on alternate years, and last year was a high year, so maybe he's got something special in store for us. In the last year of his contract, and his 11th season with the team. Not sure if he'll be back, but if he's solid this year, and willing to work for cheap, then who knows...

SP Ben Germann, 28, RH, $1.4M (arb), 0-0, 4.13, 11 GP, 24 IP, 28 K, 0 WAR (also 9-9 in 19 starts in AAA). This is where things get dicey. On paper Germann looks tremendous: great stuff, elite fastball/curve combo, decent movement, groundball pitcher. Yet he hasn't impressed at all in three seasons in our organization. He'll start off in the rotation, but will have a short leash. If he finally performs well, will become my team MVP automatically. If he doesn't, well...best not to think on bad things.

SP Shaun Gates, 24, RH, $500k (arb), 10-6, 3.55, 155 IP, 156 K, in AAA (one MLB start, 7 IP, 2.57 ERA). Another short-leasher, and one who's ratings have actually declined over the past year. Tough competitor tho, and being a groundballer won't (or shouldn't) hurt. Struggled in the spring, but was better than some (cough*Germann*cough), so is getting the call early on. But really, 3/5 of a starting rotation does not help my reflux.

CL Ramon Sanabria, 32, RH, $5M (thru '49), 26 SV, 1.62, 56 IP, 77 K, 2.2 WAR. Signed as a free agent on New Year's Eve '46, he won his 2nd Hoyt Wilhelm award in his return to the AL. (Had 50 saves as a rookie for Detroit in '40, his first award.) Combines excellent stuff, control, and groundball tendencies to make me very happy we signed him. Will probably want a huge raise after next season, and will be nearing 34, but let's not worry about that for now.

SU Rick Ramirez, 28, RH, $4.75M (thru '48), 7 SV, 2.28, 59 IP, 86 K, 2.1 WAR. Has never become the closer I envisioned when I drafted him in the 1st round in '41, but has turned into a decent-enough setup guy. Still has some of the best stuff in the league, but is too inconsistent to be relied upon every day. Last year looked like a turning point tho, at least that's how I'm going to read it.

SU Bruce Parton, 33, RH, $4.7M (thru '49), 1 SV, 3.03, 39 IP, 41 K, 0.5 WAR, with RIC and HAW. Aging, and struggled after coming over in a deadline deal, but still looks like near-closer material. Sidearmer, extreme groundballer, and fan favorite. Paying real money for relievers has really, ahem, paid off for me of late, and I'm counting on the pen delivering again.

MR Justin Crowley, 29, RH, $1.9M (thru '50), 1 SV, 5.03, 20 IP, 27 K, 0 WAR. Injured for much of the season, he didn't fare well upon his return. Does have five solid seasons as a closer (with OAK) in his past, so I'm confident he'll return to form. Another fan favorite.

MR Mark Money, 27, RH, $810k (arb), 18 SV, 3.44, 71 IP, 85 K, 1.4 WAR (with ARZ). Acquired via trade in November. Power power power: throws the ball over 100 MPH, and keeps it down too. If he can get his control (5.0 BB/9 last year) under wraps, he'll be, uh, money.

MR HC Kym, 28, LH, $2.6M (thru '50), no stats, played in Korea. Bit of an unknown, and doesn't have the greatest control. Still, is another power pitcher in a power league, and yet another groundballer (can't have enough, tbh). My one LH in the bullpen for now. Prankster, should help keep the clubhouse loose.

Injured:

SP Dennis Perry, 26, RH, $500k (arb), 16-6, 3.95, 201 IP, 148 K, 1.8 WAR. Turned in a solid back-of-the-rotation effort last year, getting better as the season wore on. Is out through early September with a torn labrum; he could possibly return (after rehab) for the stretch run, but that looks doubtful right now.

SP Jonathan Ashton, 20, RH, minor league deal, 1 start in A ball last year, and 14 the year before. First rounder from '45, and has already suffered three major arm injuries. Was looking like a solid bet for the #4 or #5 SP role this season, too. If he doesn't lose anything from this injury, I'm hopeful he'll be in the rotation next season. (Although he is out through next April.) It's just as likely, however, that he'll never pan out b/c of injuries, and will live a life of could-have-beens.

SP Joe Koval, 31, RH, $13.8M (thru '49), 8-4, 2.45, 15 GP, 99 IP, 94 K, 3.8 WAR. Was having a career year until tearing his rotator cuff (hoo boy) last year. Has become sort of a forgotten man, since he's still out for 7 more weeks, then will get a rehab stint in AAA. Not the greatest stuff, but excellent movement and control make him near-ace material. Extreme groundballer too. You can see why I traded two solid prospects for him. Now just get healthy again and shore up my frayed nerves, Joe.

MR Ben Willard, 27, RH, $500k (arb), 13 SV, 1.23, 15 IP, 16 K, in AAA, before getting hurt. Will miss 8 more weeks, then go back to AAA. Looks like closer material on paper, but has a 6.04 ERA in 57 IP over two seasons with Hawaii. He's been gold in AAA, however. I'm still bullish on him becoming more than a AAAA pitcher.

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My prediction: We can definitely win the division again, and also contend for the title. But the key will be staying healthy. Groff, Stoneback, Koval: all are key players who need to be back in the lineup and stay there. If we keep players fit and playing, and our pitching holds up (pen looks much stouter than the rotation, honestly), we'll be fine. Like last year, we'll be closer to the bottom of the pack in home runs, but we should put so many men on base that we'll just overwhelm enemy pitching. That's been our key to winning the last two seasons. I would love to hit 200 HR as a team, but I'd prefer to bat .290 and win 100 games, given the choice.