[The_Myth]

July 1, 1984

We have one more against the Astros, but first, there’s plenty of news.

First, Bill Giles checks in with a review of his goals. He’s glad about the Larry Andersen extension (his 3.94 ERA is looking better than it was in May), and he’s happy with Paul Owens, for now, but he hates that we’re well out of contention. Look, buddy, it wasn’t the best group to begin with.

Second, a bunch of coaches are in the last year of their contracts. I’m on the fence about extending Owens, as I might want to bring in some new blood. The guys in the minors - that’s a conversation for a little later in the season.

Third, the Cubs’ Leon Durham has overtaken Mike Schmidt for leading vote-getter among National League all star hopefuls. Gotta be a mild upset, but Schmidty also had a terrible June (118 PA, .210/.297/.343, 3 HR, 22 K, 13 BB).

Finally, the Red Sox are offering us SS Glenn Hoffman (age 25, 38/38) for Andersen and Mike LaValliere. No thanks.

Game 1984-80: Veterans Stadium - Phillies 6, Astros 3 / 35-45

A four-game sweep! Kevin Gross goes eight strong (9 H, 3 ER, 4 K), while Von Hayes continues his hot hitting (4-for-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R). We’re playing our best baseball of the season, and with the win, we pull ahead of the Cubs for fifth place in the NL East (13 back of first-place Pittsburgh).

By the way, we’re up to 16th in the latest power rankings. The top-five:

1. Toronto Blue Jays - 57-24
2. New York Mets - 46-32
3. Detroit Tigers - 49-29
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - 48-32
5. Kansas City Royals - 45-33

July 2, 1984

• SP John Denny promoted to MLB Philadelphia
• SP John Machin promoted to AAA Portland
• RP Jim Kern released

Denny pitched well in his rehab start, going eight while striking out six. He comes up, Kern is gone (he refused to be demoted), and Machin, who was great in Reading (87.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.1 WAR), gets a shot in AAA. He’s not special by any means, but he harnesses six pitches, so maybe he’s a fill-in-type at some point.

And speaking of fill-ins, we’re at the Carlton turn in the rotation, and Denny isn’t 100 percent to go. Moreover, my option to sub in at AAA has an ERA over 7.00. So, I’m opting for a bullpen game to start the next series. Steve Mura will start the game, maxing out at 75 pitches. We’ll see where it goes from there.

Meanwhile, we’re at the halfway point of the season. Time to analyze the roster and give out some grades.

Catcher

• Bo Diaz - 202 PA, .262/.280/.372, 6 HR, 9 XBH, 21 RBI, 34 K, 6 BB, +1.9 ZR, 1.062 EFF, 35.5% RTO, 1 PB 0.8 WAR (Grade: C-)
• John Russell - 127 PA, .237/.283/.441, 6 HR, 12 XBH, 17 RBI, 40 K, 8 BB, +1.1 ZR, .981 EFF, 43.3% RTO, 0 PB, 0.7 WAR (Grade: C)
• John Wockenfuss - 80 PA, .219/.278/.301, 2 HR, 2 XBH, 7 RBI, 9 K, 6 BB, +1.3 ZR, 1.062 EFF, 54.2% RTO, 0 PB, 0 WAR (Grade: D-)
• Darren Daulton (AAA) - 252 PA, .249/.357/.413, 7 HR, 17 XBH, 29 RBI, 56 K, 36 BB, +0.4 ZR, .931 EFF, 34.4% RTO, 7 PB, 1.8 WAR (Grade: B)

Diaz has struggled at the plate but otherwise has been as advertised. Russell has played well behind the plate (eighth in runners thrown out percentage among those with at least 15 chances), but at the plate the discipline lacks a bit. Wockenfuss just hasn’t lived up to his end of the bargain, as he was supposed to be a solid bench bat. As for Daulton, he hasn’t been a world-beater in Portland, but he’s good enough now to reach Philly and not be too far behind.

Future outlook: I’d like to move Diaz at the deadline; once that happens, Daulton comes to Philly to work a pseudo-platoon with Russell for the rest of the season.

First Base

• Len Matuszek - 282 PA, .277/.351/.430, 6 HR, 24 XBH, 37 RBI, 45 K, 28 BB, +1.6 ZR, 1.025 EFF, 1.6 WAR (Grade: B+)

Give it up for Matuszek, putting it all together in his first season as a full-time starter. Very happy with his game offensively and defensively.

Future outlook: Sadly, Matuszek will turn 30 in September, which means he could be peaking right now. Investing in a solid second option at first base for 1985 is a good idea.

Second Base

• Juan Samuel - 353 PA, .264/.313/.401, 5 HR, 28 XBH, 20 RBI, 34 SB, 85 K, 23 BB, -11.6 ZR, .894 EFF, 0.9 WAR (Grade: C+)

I love watching Juan Samuel. He leads the National League in steals, trailing only Rickey Henderson for the major-league lead (37). His 17 doubles and six triples lead the team and are among NL leaders, and one would imagine as he strengthens, some of those extra-base hits become homers. But. He strikes out a ton and plays terrible defense.

Future outlook: I want to give the 23-year-old a chance to play every day up here. He could be a cornerstone piece for this franchise, and the excitement he brings proves that.

Third Base

• Mike Schmidt - 336 PA, .241/.330/.446, 15 HR, 29 XBH, 44 RBI, 0 SB, 66 K, 40 BB, +0.9 ZR, 1.024 EFF, 2.2 WAR (Grade: B)
• Mike Diaz (AAA) - 292 PA, .321/.373/.586, 17 HR, 36 XBH, 52 RBI, 0 SB, 38 K, 20 BB, +0.5 ZR, 1.031 EFF, 3.5 WAR (Grade: A-)
• Chris James (AA) - 315 PA, .296/.332/.502, 12 HR, 33 XBH, 45 RBI, 13 SB, 38 K, 14 BB, -1.8 ZR, .982 EFF, 2.3 WAR (Grade: B)

The power is there, but Schmidty hasn’t been the same this season. His defense also hasn’t been exceptional, just slightly above average. Diaz has been outstanding, very similar to last season in AAA Iowa. And James needs to work on defense at third base, but he’s learning, and the offensive profile is strong.

Future outlook: Schmidt remains the starter, but Diaz needs some work in the majors this year. Is there a version of 1985 with Diaz at third and Schmidt at first? I don’t think so. James is still a year away, at least. For now, it’s still Schmidty’s world.

Shortstop

• Ivan De Jesus - 256 PA, .225/.290/.281, 0 HR, 10 XBH, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 33 K, 22 BB, -11.1 ZR, .887 EFF, -1.1 WAR (Grade: F)
• Kiko Garcia - 64 PA, .224/.270/.276, 0 HR, 3 XBH, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 12 K, 3 BB, +1.5 ZR, 1.078 EFF, 0.1 WAR (Grade: D)
• Steve Jeltz (AAA) - 264 PA, .237/.333/.329, 2 HR, 12 XBH, 19 RBI, 5 SB, 48 K, 31 BB, +2.6 ZR, 1.044 EFF, 1.4 WAR (Grade: C+)

De Jesus has been atrocious out there - a bad fielder, and the bat hasn’t redeemed him at all. Garcia isn’t an everyday player, but I’ve used him a bit more lately because his glove plays. Jeltz utilizes his eye and speed, and his glove is good.

Future outlook: De Jesus is gone, and Garcia is probably gone, too. I’m thinking about upgrading at shortstop in free agency, but moreover, I need a good fielder out there. Jeltz has one option year remaining; chances are he uses it up this year, which means it’s do or die next year. At worst he’s probably a decent utility infielder off the bench, but I’m uncertain about his chances as an everyday guy beyond that.

Left Field

• Glenn Wilson - 184 PA, .256/.272/.347, 3 HR, 10 XBH, 25 RBI, 1 SB, 19 K, 5 BB, -1.7 ZR, .987 EFF, -0.2 WAR (Grade: D+)
• Greg Gross - 126 PA, .235/.302/.270, 0 HR, 3 XBH, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 5 K, 11 BB, +1.0 ZR, 1.033 EFF, -0.1 WAR (Grade: C-)
• Jeff Stone (AAA) - 307 PA, .270/.306/.353, 3 HR, 15 XBH, 27 RBI, 22 SB, 44 K, 14 BB, +5.2 ZR, .986 EFF, 1.1 WAR (Grade: C+)

Wilson has had a few moments, but mostly he’s been poor defensively and even poorer offensively, nowhere near the slugger we hoped to see. Gross isn’t having his usual solid season as a bench bat. I think we screwed around with Stone too much, as moving him to center field (to build his flexibility) caused his offensive numbers to crater.

Future outlook: Von Hayes is likely to slide over to left next season. That means Wilson really needs to show something to earn a starting job in the outfield in 1985. I think we’re likely to move on from Gross, as he’s a free agent. And going forward, we’re gonna keep our hands off Stone and let him stay comfortable in left field. In short: We need another outfield option for ‘85.

Center Field

• Von Hayes - 339 PA, .288/.366/.411, 6 HR, 23 XBH, 32 RBI, 18 SB, 58 K, 38 BB, -9.8 ZR, .933 EFF, 1.5 WAR (Grade: B+)
• Garry Maddox - 61 PA, .153/.164/.186, 0 HR, 2 XBH, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 8 K, 1 BB, +1.6 ZR, .994 EFF, -0.3 WAR (Grade: F)

If Hayes is just passable out in center field, we’re talking about a 3-win player right now; offensively he’s been terrific, and a change of position should really help. Maddox? Tough to watch.

Future outlook: With Hayes moving to left field in 1985, we’ll need a center fielder. Nobody in the system right now stands out, so we’re scouring the trade market as we speak.

Right Field

• Sixto Lezcano - 214 PA, .220/.346/.384, 7 HR, 13 XBH, 22 RBI, 0 SB, 28 K, 35 BB, +1.4 ZR, 1.022 EFF, 1.0 WAR (Grade: C+)
• Joe Lefebvre - 212 PA, .274/.344/.421, 3 HR, 20 XBH, 32 RBI, 2 SB, 35 K, 20 BB, +1.7 ZR, .995 EFF, 1.2 WAR (Grade: B)
• Mark Funderburk (AAA) - 237 PA, .275/.325/.546, 17 HR, 24 XBH, 45 RBI, 1 SB, 26 K, 14 BB, +4.8 ZR, 1.003 EFF, 2.1 WAR (Grade: A-)

Lezcano lacks power but has set the table a little, and his defense is solid. Lefebvre does everything Lezcano can do but has more gap power. Funderburk lit up AAA for a while and was just promoted to the majors.

Future outlook: Lezcano is a free agent, and I might try to move him in a trade. Lefebvre is a free agent after 1986 and should be considered the favorite to start in right out of spring training next season (though an upgrade might be necessary). On his best days, Lefebvre makes a fine seven-hole hitter on a good team.

Starting Pitcher

• Steve Carlton - 106.2 IP, 4-6, 3.80 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 71 K, 33 BB, 2.4 WAR (Grade: B)
• John Denny - 88 IP, 4-3, 3.07 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 53 K, 17 BB, 2.9 WAR (Grade: B+)
• Kelly Downs - 25.1 IP, 0-2, 6.39 ERA, 5.50 FIP, 11 K, 8 BB, -0.2 WAR (Grade: D-)
• Kevin Gross - 102.1 IP, 10-4, 3.43 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 75 K, 28 BB, 1.6 WAR (Grade: B+)
• Charles Hudson - 111.1 IP, 4-9, 3.80 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 68 K, 35 BB, 2.5 WAR (Grade: B)
• Jerry Koosman - 98.1 IP, 3-9, 4.67 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 42 K, 16 BB, 1.8 WAR (Grade: C)
• Curt Young (AAA) - 88 IP, 4-8, 4.81 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 49 K, 27 BB, 0.7 WAR (Grade: C-)
• Mike Maddux (AA) - 96.1 IP, 6-5, 4.02 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 57 K, 32 BB, 1.1 WAR (Grade: C)

Carlton’s decline is happening, as all his numbers are on the downswing, though he’s still mid-rotation effective. Denny isn’t as dominant as last season, thanks in part to an injury, but he’s nevertheless been very good. Downs earned a promotion but hasn’t yet figured it out. Gross has been consistent, a mid-rotation stalwart. Hudson has shown flashes of brilliance but has otherwise been just a decent starter. Koosman’s 41 years shows, but to his credit, he was much better in June. Young has pitched like a spot starter. Maddux had a great June; hopefully he continues to play it crafty.

Future outlook: Lefty, Denny, Hudson, Gross, and Downs are all under team control in 1985. Koosman is if he reaches an innings threshold, and considering his improved play, there’s no reason to keep him from that at the moment. It’s a decent rotation on paper, but it could use another mid-rotation arm, as age (Carlton, Koosman) and inexperience (Downs) can be exploited. Young hasn’t yet shown he can grab a rotation spot, and Maddux needs to improve his movement before even getting to AAA.

Relief Pitcher

• Al Holland - 29.2 IP, 3-2, 16 SV, 2.73 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 24 K, 10 BB, 0.3 WAR (Grade: B)
• Bill Campbell - 41 IP, 3-3, 10 HLD, 2.63 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 23 K, 10 BB, 0.7 WAR (Grade: B+)
• Tug McGraw - 19.1 IP, 2-2, 1 SV, 2 HLD, 2.33 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 14 K, 2 BB, 0.6 WAR (Grade: A-)
• Larry Andersen - 29.2 IP, 2-2, 4 HLD, 3.94 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 22 K, 12 BB, 0.0 WAR (Grade: C)
• Steve Mura - 36.2 IP, 0-1, 1 SV, 3.68 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 36 K, 20 BB, 0.3 WAR (Grade: C+)
• Dave Wehrmeister - 30.2 IP, 0-1, 4.70 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 18 K, 15 BB, -0.1 WAR (Grade: D)
• Don Carman - 4 IP, 0-1, 2.25 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 6 K, 1 BB, 0.0 WAR (Grade: C+)
• John Flinn - 2.2 IP, 0-0, 13.50 ERA, 13.35 FIP, 3 K, 7 BB, -0.3 WAR (Grade: F)
• Rich Gaynor (AAA) - 33 IP, 0-2, 1.91 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 21 K, 16 BB, -0.1 WAR (Grade: C+)
• John McLarnan (AA) - 22.1 IP, 2-2, 13 SV, 1 HLD, 1.61 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 19 K, 4 BB, 0.5 WAR (Grade: B+)

Holland hasn’t been lights out, just effective enough. Campbell has done a nice job as the main setup man, while McGraw has done very well as a LOOGY. Andersen struggled early but has picked it up. Mura has held his own as a garden-variety middle reliever. Wehrmeister walked too many hitters, and Flinn really walked too many. Carman has mostly impressed in a small sample, while Gaynor is young and hungry, and still needing some work. McLarnan has potential, but the movement and control must improve.

Future outlook: Holland wants out, so I’m going to try to accommodate that; plus, the numbers tell me he’s not good enough to lock down those crucial, high-leverage situations. Either way I lack that fireballer in the majors, as Campbell and Andersen rate more as second fiddles, Carman still needs some polish, and McGraw is just a specialist at this point (he needs 30 innings to vest a 1985 contract, and he’s on his way). I’ll be on the hunt for a gas can this offseason, and maybe McLarnan shows something big next year in AAA.

Meanwhile, here’s where my guys rank in the National League:

Hitters

Home Runs
5. Mike Schmidt - 15

At Bats
5. Juan Samuel - 322

Triples
T3. Juan Samuel - 6

Stolen Bases
1. Juan Samuel - 34

Caught Stealing
T3. Von Hayes - 10

Strikeouts
2. Juan Samuel - 85

Bases on Balls
7. Mike Schmidt - 40

Sacrifice Hits
T4. Steve Carlton - 10

Isolated Power
4. Mike Schmidt - .204

Pitchers

Wins
T2. Kevin Gross - 10

Losses
T4. Charles Hudson - 9
T4. Jerry Koosman - 9

Saves
3. Al Holland - 16

Walks / 9 IP
3. Jerry Koosman - 1.5
5. John Denny - 1.7

Fielding Independent Pitching
6. John Denny - 2.42

Winning Percentage
7. Kevin Gross - .714

Holds
1. Bill Campbell - 10

Game 1984-81: Veterans Stadium - Reds 2, Phillies 1 / 35-46

The bullpen game works perfectly. Steve Mura pitches 3.1 innings and surrenders one run, and then Don Carman pitches 3.2 solid frames to bridge the game. Bill Campbell allows a run in the ninth, however, and we can’t score. Wish we could’ve found just another run or two in there.