I think age, plus factors such as defense and leadership ability, play a key role in arb estimates. He may not play well on the field but he may handle the pitching staff and be the clubhouse leader. Those things are very valuable. Also, they don't always sign for the estimate. I get deals all the time by offering a fair valuation. For example I had a closer once who had a 4.85 ERA, 67ERA+, but he had 42 saves. Because of the saves his arb estimate was IIRC around $12.5 Million. His salary that year was 545k. I thought NO WAY is he worth even 6M. So I offered 1.25 Million with the idea I would use him as a setup/low leverage reliever the following year, and I won the arbitration hearing!
The guy pitched worse than most of the league, but expected a 24x raise?!? Not on my watch
