OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Sean Doolittle -7 points?

chazzycat · 04-22-2019, 09:34 PM

I can usually make sense of the ratings changes, just looking at projections versus performance. But this one really has me scratching my head. Doolittle has pitched 10 innings this season with an ERA of 0.9 and FIP of 1.7.

For starters 10 IP seems like a pretty small sample to be swinging an established player 7 points...

But mostly I'm just confused about how it is possible. ZiPs projects him to put up a FIP of 2.9 this season. Small sample aside, he's beating that significantly right now. My understanding is that the game's pitcher modelling is basically identical to FIP. So generally, if a pitcher is beating his FIP projection, you would expect to see his rating go up, not down. Certainly not down 7 points.

Anyone care to explain this one for me?

04-22-2019, 09:34 PM	#1
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Sean Doolittle -7 points? I can usually make sense of the ratings changes, just looking at projections versus performance. But this one really has me scratching my head. Doolittle has pitched 10 innings this season with an ERA of 0.9 and FIP of 1.7. For starters 10 IP seems like a pretty small sample to be swinging an established player 7 points... But mostly I'm just confused about how it is possible. ZiPs projects him to put up a FIP of 2.9 this season. Small sample aside, he's beating that significantly right now. My understanding is that the game's pitcher modelling is basically identical to FIP. So generally, if a pitcher is beating his FIP projection, you would expect to see his rating go up, not down. Certainly not down 7 points. Anyone care to explain this one for me?