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NoOne · 04-02-2019, 08:06 PM

batting average alone isn't much. without any slugging it's not going to score you many runs if you have a lineup of singles-machines -- even if they steal bases like ricky henderson it make get you sub-average to average results in a modern-power-esque league.

you could leage the lead in BA and have a bottom 1/3rd offense. it'd be really had to do that with slugging or OBP. (or even better metrics like woba / wrc+ etc)

obp is more correlated to RS than BA, as poorly weighted as OBP is. a higher obp with a larger portion of BA is better than the reverse, for obvious reasons. singles > bb, but ignoring walks isn't wise. not as important in ootp as RL as far as in-game strats and the little side-games of manipulation and nuance that isn't quite modeled except lumped into an overall average of the #s over time.

so a 350ba/356obp is better than a 280/356 guy, hands down and twice on sunday in OoTp... and likely RL if oyu hit 350, but in less extreme cases it may not be plausible in RL to have that small of a difference between ba and obp... pitchers would take advantage of the too-aggressive approach and he'd go the way of brennan boesch and the like. bosch? whatver...

in ootp i wouldn't worry one bit about walk rate, if obp is "high". in fact, favor those types of players, for reasons laid out above.

if ~14th in obp/slugging, expect to be middle of the road in RS (+/- 5-10 places @ 1/3rd of season). if it's deviating significantly from that estimate, it's more likely bad luck, good luck or small sample size ramifications than anything else. lots of volatility to account for early in season and even a full season of data.

04-02-2019, 08:06 PM	#9
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	batting average alone isn't much. without any slugging it's not going to score you many runs if you have a lineup of singles-machines -- even if they steal bases like ricky henderson it make get you sub-average to average results in a modern-power-esque league. you could leage the lead in BA and have a bottom 1/3rd offense. it'd be really had to do that with slugging or OBP. (or even better metrics like woba / wrc+ etc) obp is more correlated to RS than BA, as poorly weighted as OBP is. a higher obp with a larger portion of BA is better than the reverse, for obvious reasons. singles > bb, but ignoring walks isn't wise. not as important in ootp as RL as far as in-game strats and the little side-games of manipulation and nuance that isn't quite modeled except lumped into an overall average of the #s over time. so a 350ba/356obp is better than a 280/356 guy, hands down and twice on sunday in OoTp... and likely RL if oyu hit 350, but in less extreme cases it may not be plausible in RL to have that small of a difference between ba and obp... pitchers would take advantage of the too-aggressive approach and he'd go the way of brennan boesch and the like. bosch? whatver... in ootp i wouldn't worry one bit about walk rate, if obp is "high". in fact, favor those types of players, for reasons laid out above. if ~14th in obp/slugging, expect to be middle of the road in RS (+/- 5-10 places @ 1/3rd of season). if it's deviating significantly from that estimate, it's more likely bad luck, good luck or small sample size ramifications than anything else. lots of volatility to account for early in season and even a full season of data.