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Westheim · 04-01-2019, 08:11 AM

I do not have the precise numbers ready here, but what was it? 53 perfect cards and of those only nine were live cards initially?

Coupled with 70% odds to draw a live card at any point, that means any specific live perfect card (with these numbers, they might be off slightly) has odds of dropping of:

1/9 * 7/10 = 7.77%

It is not hard to see how that could lead to duplicate (triplicate?) perfects for one PT player.

Meanwhile the odds for any specific historical perfect would be:

1/44 * 3/10 = 0.68%

04-01-2019, 08:11 AM	#6
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 13,248	I do not have the precise numbers ready here, but what was it? 53 perfect cards and of those only nine were live cards initially? Coupled with 70% odds to draw a live card at any point, that means any specific live perfect card (with these numbers, they might be off slightly) has odds of dropping of: 1/9 * 7/10 = 7.77% It is not hard to see how that could lead to duplicate (triplicate?) perfects for one PT player. Meanwhile the odds for any specific historical perfect would be: 1/44 * 3/10 = 0.68% __________________ Portland Raccoons, 90 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 * 2061 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.