OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - How do people get seasons with 120-144 wins by a team and win the world series every year?

NoOne · 03-28-2019, 08:13 PM

if you only play 1 playoff series to get a WS, then you can expect to win 85-90% or more at best -- even with 130-140win team, but each layer that gets reduced quite a bit, even at 90%. i have just 2 playoff series to win with a bye, so ~75-80% isn't too unusual. with that kind of %, you can go on some extended streaks for sure.

add a layer and down to 81% of the time... another and it's ~70%. obviously simplified... higher % against lower seeds and lower percentage later plus oddities of regular season and win totals etc etc... easier to see in hindsight and impossible to know for certain in the moment.

RL yankees win it ~25% of the time. that's insane if you think about it. 1/30th vs 1/4 -- at least since there's been 30 teams. it is 100% about money and market mixed with just an iota of competency -- that's enough to be a dynasty in the MLB.

the reason you can have long-term success in this video game is being able to do things you simply cannot do in RL. the rate of finding good players is very high at normal accuracy. knowing when best to find them helps. once you start winning you see that trading for a prospect with 1-2 years is far better return than the draft ever can be.

you can trade for future and not hurt your chances of re-signing and signing FA. in RL, they'd know you always trade at a certain age and you always avoid the 10/5 rule etc etc... it'd be very difficult to sign extensions and FA with that kind of reputation. if i touch a 10/5 season, it's because it's the last season of contract or i am willing to play it out and take the comp pick instead of trading. 90+% will be traded well before this point. trick is to do heavy trading when budgets are fat... i.e. before FA, but after season.

but, since it isn't a negative to behave this cutthroat with pixelized players, you can always be planning for future... always be making decisions for 3-5 years in advance, and eventualyl it's a never-ending cycle of amazing talent... most of which is extremely cheap for ~5 years. nearly all my injury replacements are superstar prospects in AA/AAA. 550k? no big deal to add to an already cheap payroll. a few days of mlb service are no big deal. if they can be an injury sub, they are less than 3 years away for certain, so even # of options isn't a problem.

heck, i even shorten club control in my leagues (6 years, not 7, and mil control shortened a year too). i still have no problems re-loading on talent. i also make sure to replace 1-2 batters and a pitcher or 2 nearly every single year (SP every other on average, maybe a fraction faster than that). i never have a case where i am replacing numerous major contributors. i usually have ~3 batters still developing at bottom of lineup, but still better than their 5-10M/year counterpart FAs at that skill level.

you can do this with any team. you just can't keep as many extensions/FA contracts at one time. you won't win as often as you can with NY or LA of course, but 105wins would be a year in which you have catastrophic injuries as opposed to a ~normal year.

it's possible if you have some disciplne in contacts and avoid painting yourself into corners that only have 1 choice... and that choice is usually horrible. a realistic assessment of talent is necessary too. some things work better than others, and any emotional attatchment to things that don't work as well should be severed. chalk it up to being wrong.. it happens. (era matters... 1871 isn't the same as 2019)

rate of change... know what you can keep up with and do it in perpetuity.. .this will be mostly dictated by your potential revenues, but being creative with the musical chairs of personnell is a big portion too. don't cling, dont reach, be realistic... stop listening to call-in sports radio shows... the stuff you hear in that kind of forum is exactly why your (includes mine) local team is horrible most years, lol.

03-28-2019, 08:13 PM	#19
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	if you only play 1 playoff series to get a WS, then you can expect to win 85-90% or more at best -- even with 130-140win team, but each layer that gets reduced quite a bit, even at 90%. i have just 2 playoff series to win with a bye, so ~75-80% isn't too unusual. with that kind of %, you can go on some extended streaks for sure. add a layer and down to 81% of the time... another and it's ~70%. obviously simplified... higher % against lower seeds and lower percentage later plus oddities of regular season and win totals etc etc... easier to see in hindsight and impossible to know for certain in the moment. RL yankees win it ~25% of the time. that's insane if you think about it. 1/30th vs 1/4 -- at least since there's been 30 teams. it is 100% about money and market mixed with just an iota of competency -- that's enough to be a dynasty in the MLB. the reason you can have long-term success in this video game is being able to do things you simply cannot do in RL. the rate of finding good players is very high at normal accuracy. knowing when best to find them helps. once you start winning you see that trading for a prospect with 1-2 years is far better return than the draft ever can be. you can trade for future and not hurt your chances of re-signing and signing FA. in RL, they'd know you always trade at a certain age and you always avoid the 10/5 rule etc etc... it'd be very difficult to sign extensions and FA with that kind of reputation. if i touch a 10/5 season, it's because it's the last season of contract or i am willing to play it out and take the comp pick instead of trading. 90+% will be traded well before this point. trick is to do heavy trading when budgets are fat... i.e. before FA, but after season. but, since it isn't a negative to behave this cutthroat with pixelized players, you can always be planning for future... always be making decisions for 3-5 years in advance, and eventualyl it's a never-ending cycle of amazing talent... most of which is extremely cheap for ~5 years. nearly all my injury replacements are superstar prospects in AA/AAA. 550k? no big deal to add to an already cheap payroll. a few days of mlb service are no big deal. if they can be an injury sub, they are less than 3 years away for certain, so even # of options isn't a problem. heck, i even shorten club control in my leagues (6 years, not 7, and mil control shortened a year too). i still have no problems re-loading on talent. i also make sure to replace 1-2 batters and a pitcher or 2 nearly every single year (SP every other on average, maybe a fraction faster than that). i never have a case where i am replacing numerous major contributors. i usually have ~3 batters still developing at bottom of lineup, but still better than their 5-10M/year counterpart FAs at that skill level. you can do this with any team. you just can't keep as many extensions/FA contracts at one time. you won't win as often as you can with NY or LA of course, but 105wins would be a year in which you have catastrophic injuries as opposed to a ~normal year. it's possible if you have some disciplne in contacts and avoid painting yourself into corners that only have 1 choice... and that choice is usually horrible. a realistic assessment of talent is necessary too. some things work better than others, and any emotional attatchment to things that don't work as well should be severed. chalk it up to being wrong.. it happens. (era matters... 1871 isn't the same as 2019) rate of change... know what you can keep up with and do it in perpetuity.. .this will be mostly dictated by your potential revenues, but being creative with the musical chairs of personnell is a big portion too. don't cling, dont reach, be realistic... stop listening to call-in sports radio shows... the stuff you hear in that kind of forum is exactly why your (includes mine) local team is horrible most years, lol. Last edited by NoOne; 03-28-2019 at 08:24 PM.