[Bub13]

Spring Training has come and gone; we finished a streaky 19-11. Nobody played themselves off the roster, although as usual the bullpen will probably be in flux depending on who doesn't pitch well early on--and there's always someone... We will start with three players on the DL: last year's closer Dan Brown will miss 1-2 weeks, so he'll be back quickly; contender for the backup catcher role Brian Drummond broke his elbow and will miss 3 months; and pitching prospect Angel Cordova suffered a hamstring injury and will be out for another 5 weeks. Only Brown will come back to the big league roster.

Several players who had outside shots at cracking the opening day lineup--but didn't--had very good springs. OF Cameron Daley hit .550, although with no power, and looks about big league ready and with room to still grow. He hit .309 in AA last year, is 22, and looks like a can't miss prospect right now. Outfield mate Kenny Welch hit just .255, and battled with Glenn Heath for a backup spot right to the last game in March. He's got more power than Daley, but is held back by his lead feet in the field. Phil Lasky has made a rapid ascent up the prospect ladder: he played in A ball last year, will start this year in AAA, and nearly made the big club. He's a true two-way player and could figure more as a major league starting pitcher than a starting outfielder. We'll see what he does in AAA. Finally, SP Shamar Jackson went 4-0 with a 0.45 ERA, but still looks underdeveloped to me. He was gold in AA last year, but struggled mightily in AAA and then in one MLB start. He'll get some more seasoning and likely will be the first call-up should one of our SP keel over with the vapors.

One the other side of the ledger, not many guys looked off this March. Sen Masuda hit just .169, but I'm not worried about him. More concerning, however, was the play of nominal ace starter Rob Hart. Coming off his first major arm injury, he was inconsistent and really wild (he walked 5 in two of his five starts), and finished with a 6.95 ERA. Still, it was just five starts, so maybe I'm overreacting...

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2046 Hawaii Islanders Opening Day Roster

Starters in bold, with age, batting hand, contract (year), and 2045 stats.

C Rob Rich, 25, LH, 3.5M (2051), .319/4/68, 40 doubles, 2.5 WAR. Recently signed to an extension, and he's worth it. Not really all-star caliber, and my owner constantly wants me to upgrade. But Rich hits for average, brings runs home, and is an excellent receiver. Doesn't hit well against lefties, so will be platooned, which hopefully will keep him healthier too.

C Dave McCollum, 25, RH, 500K (2046 arb), .321/0/4, 56 AB with SD and ATL. Acquired from the Braves during spring training. Decent hitter and fielder, and is immediately a hit in the clubhouse. Hopefully will be the perfect backup catcher. Will start against lefthanded pitching.

DH/1B Jonathan Klump, 25, LH, 500K (2046 arb), .306/26/90, 2.9 WAR. Solid power hitter, smart guy, gets on base (.376 OBP). Needs to up his game against lefty pitching, but is otherwise sound. Could take over at first if we don't re-sign Masuda after this season.

1B Senichi Masuda, 31, RH, 10.6M (2046), .281/36/136, 51 doubles, 3.9 WAR. Has been a low-key but solid contributor at first for four seasons now, but will be a free agent after this one. Scouts tell me his contact is getting worse, so we'll see if he starts to backslide. I'm undecided on re-signing him, but as he's already making over 10M, and is not a superstar, I'm leaning away from it as the season starts. He's extremely popular with the home fans, so this would be yet another blow to our imperilled Fan Interest meter.

2B JJ Simmons, 23, RH, 6.8M (2046 arb), .313/0/77, 2.8 WAR. Had a down year from his ROY '44 campaign, where he hit .350 and won the batting title. Has the bat, the eye, and the plate discipline to do that every year, tbh. Disappointed he didn't get his annual home run last year. Excellent fielder, can run too (but went 10-for-24 on the basepaths last year). I need to re-sign him, but he's only after a one-year deal right now, and I want to lock him up until he's 30.

IF/OF John Canning, 29, RH, MiLC, .306/1/43, 2.1 WAR with Brooklyn. Undervalued player, really, and I'm surprised I was able to sign him for peanuts. He's got decent contact and gap power, never strikes out, can run, and can play anywhere but catcher. Spent six years being an all-everything utility player for us. Has no power, tho, which is his only major drawback.

3B Adam Groff, 32, LH, 37.5M (2053), .302/26/77, 4.6 WAR. The face of the franchise, and paid like it too. Had a down year in '45, so we're hoping for a big bounce back. Scouts say he hasn't lost anything at the plate yet, but is losing range at third, almost to the point of liability. It's possible he'll be moved to first next year, if Masuda doesn't come back. Should reach 300 career HR this year, and pass 1700 career hits.

IF Manny Rangel, 25, RH, 900K (2046 auto), .158/0/2 in 19 AB (.235/21/72 at AAA). Our first Cuban player, Rangel will be a utility guy this year, although he's best suited for second (not much of an arm, tbh). Scouts say he still has room to grow at the plate, so I hope that low average in AAA isn't a long-term indicator. Has some power and a good eye, but will strike out a bit. If he develops some more this year, he could be our 2B in '47, should Groff move to first (and Simmons possibly over to third or back to short).

SS Rich Stoneback, 28, RH, 12.8M (2046), .299/42/110, 8.7 WAR. After a terrible '44, had a tremendous comeback season, leading the AL in WAR, and winning his second Gold Glove at short. Has tremendous range and a great glove, and really does almost everything well except run and hit the gaps (just 26 doubles). I'll start talking with his agent about an extension, but he'll want the big bucks. With both him and Simmons to re-sign, will I be able to afford both?

LF Ramon Davila, 28, RH, 4.4M (2049), .264/23/84 with Tampa Bay, 2.1 WAR. Free agent signee, missed a couple weeks of ST with an arm injury. Not the greatest contact hitter, but brings power, eye, and low-K to the game. Good range and glove in the field, if not the best arm around. (Also rates well in the IF, so you never know where he'll turn up.) If he can hit at least .250 with 25 or so HR, he'll be worth it.

OF Nate Flygare, 25, RH, 500K (2046 arb), .260/2/13 in 96 AB, -0.2 WAR. Last man on the bench for us last year, and will fill that role again this season. Shows decent contact and gap power, won't strike out, and can run some. Good fielder, fair arm, and a smart kid. Still, could likely find himself on the outside, as there are some bigger bats behind him on the farm.

RF Joseph Hart, 26, LH, 6.9M (2046 arb), .273/18/78, 2.5 WAR. Tends to get overlooked a bit, as he doesn't produce big numbers. Competent fielder, the fans adore him, and he walks more than he strikes out (86K vs 100 BB last year). Power numbers were down, didn't crack 20 HR for the first time in his short career, so we'll ask for that to return to form. Did go from a liability on the basepaths to an 18-for-22 season stealing bases, which was a nice surprise. How long he ends up staying here will depend on what we can either sign him for, or what an arbitrator rules he's worth. It always comes down to money.

CF Jim Klein, 26, RH, 3.1M (2051), .314/7/66, 44 doubles, 24 SB, 2.4 WAR. Well-liked by teammates and fans, I particularly like him because he delivers at a cheap price. Not a ton of power, but consistently hits over .300, and plays a solid center field. A good baserunner who should really fare better than his 24-for-40 SB totals showed.

OF Glenn Heath, 23, LH, 500K (2046), .226/2/8 in 62 AB (.310/13/46 in 261 AAA AB). Rates as a solid power bat and doubles machine, who will both take a lot of walks and whiff a ton. (His total minor league OBP is 110 points higher than his AVG.) Decent fielder, but a bit too slow for center. Started with the big club last year, too, but couldn't hit and spent much of the summer on the farm. Getting another shot at it this go-round, and needs to grab this chance.

Only one change to the starting lineup from 2045, and a few tweaks on the bench. All in all, I think this could be a better roster than last year's version, with a little more L/R balance. Once again, we won't threaten to lead the league in HR, but we'll get a lot of hits and put a lot of guys on base. And frankly, I'd rather put a ton of guys on base and have more chances to score than sit and wait for 3-run homers, a la Earl Weaver. Now, the pitching...

SP Rob Hart, 29, RH, 16M (2048), 15-6 3.29, 25 GS, 186 IP, 249 K, 5.1 WAR. Was having the best season of his career until he got hurt in late summer. Scouts say he hasn't lost anything, but after a bad spring, I'll be watching him closely. Used to alternate good years with bad ones, so let's hope he's grown out of that habit. With a big year he could top 2000 career strikeouts. If he's fully back, we're good; if he's not, then the wall is crumbling.

SP Ryan Ratliff, 25, RH, 500K (2046 arb), 9-7 4.68, 23 GS, 144 IP, 135 K, 2.1 WAR. Had a good start to 2045, then blew up and went to AAA for a bit, came back and slowly got back on track by September. As he's the #2 starter going into the season, we'll definitely need Good Ryan, not Bad Ryan. Gave up a career high (including minors) 1.4 HR/9, but counters that with allowing just 2 BB/9. Could be in line for a nice payday if he's good this season.

SP Eric Jones, 29, LH, 9.35M (2046), 13-6 4.84, 32 GS, 205 IP, 116 K, 2.2 WAR. Back for his ninth season with the Islanders, and this time--I really mean it!--it could be his last. Was truly horrific until after the all-star break, when he got his numbers to look respectable, at least. Like Hart, has a history of alternating good with bad years, so maybe this time around... Anyway, with Murray in rehab, he's our top lefty. Fun fact: he's never been seriously injured: has made 31-33 starts every big league season. You'd think maybe I'd respect him a bit more then.

SP Tim Pinksen, 32, RH, 6.7M (2046), 13-7 5.14, 31 GS, 175 IP, 137 K, 2.8 WAR (6-0 4.65 with us). Last year's deadline acquisition didn't really pitch all that great, but still went 6-0 behind some terrific run support. Strikeouts were up and walks were down with us, so if those numbers revert, then I don't know what to expect from him. Teammates like him b/c he busts his ass; let's hope that doesn't mean he hustles to back up the third baseman after yet another line drive into the gap.

SP Taylor Barnett, 27, LH, 750K (2046 arb), 6-4 5.24, 14 GS, 79 IP, 53 K, 0.1 WAR (plus 12 starts in AAA). You know all about his magical 2044 season (9-0 2.56 ERA in 12 starts). Well, reality bit hard last year, resulting in an extended stay in AAA after a craptacular start to the season. He came up for good after Hart's injury, but will be on a short leash this year. With several guys knocking on the door in AAA (including LHP Jonathan Murray on rehab), I'll have my finger on the "release the hounds" button early. Not a strikeout pitcher or big stuff guy, but gets by on movement, guile, gumption, and harassing midnight phone calls.

CL Rick Ramirez, 26, RH, 2.4M (2046 arb), 5-5, 20 SV, 42 G, 47 IP, 65 K, 0.8 WAR. Moved into the closer role after Yaung's season-ending injury and looked good early. Started to blow up with more frequency, then missed a couple months with his own injury. Came back for September and the playoffs and was good again. With Brown's injury, he'll start as closer. He has all the tools and should be a fantastic closer, but hasn't put it all together yet. Still, unless he proves a constant disappointment to me, I'll try to re-sign him during the season.

SU Pat Stanley, 32, LH, 2.5M (2047), 13-4, 3 SV, 54 G, 90 IP, 76 K, 1.0 WAR. Our workhorse, averaging 97 IP out of the pen over the last five seasons. Entering his tenth big league season, all with Hawaii. Combination of decent stuff, great control, and tons of groundball outs has been gold for most of that decade. One of two lefties in the pen.

SU Ben Willard, 25, RH, 500K (2046 arb), 3-1 5.68, 3 SV, 22 G, 32 IP, 30 K, negative WAR (plus 10 games in AAA). Played well at first after his call-up last year, but really struggled down the stretch. Had an excellent spring, beating out several others for a spot in the pen. But like Barnett in the rotation, is one of a few relievers that will be short-leashed early if they struggle in April. Has big-time stuff, with a nice fastball/knuckle curve combo, and nice control.

MR Steve Dickerson, 28, RH, 750K (2046 arb), 3-4 4.62, 3 SV, 34 G, 44 IP, 43 K, negative WAR (all with San Diego). Waiver pickup in November, threw well in the spring, so here he is. Kind of a dime-a-dozen guy, so I don't expect anything earth-shaking from him. Just go out and do your job, Steve, and everything will be fine.

MR Hisami Masuda, 31, LH, 3.4M (2046 arb), 3-4 4.95, 1 SV, 38 G, 67 IP, 78 K, negative WAR. Really thought he'd be gone this year, after being largely ineffective last season. But, here he is, after throwing well this spring, and warming my cold, dead heart a bit. I'll have no patience for the shenanigans he pulled last year, especially at 3.4 mill. Ratings still look good, he can hit 99 on the radar gun, which is nice. But if he gives up 2.8 HR/9 like he did in '45, I'll buy his airline ticket to waiverville myself.

LR Ben Germann, 26, RH, 800K (2046 arb), 6-4 4.88, 1 SV, 40 G, 52 IP, 60 K, negative WAR. (all with KC) Another newcomer. Will begin in long relief, and can step into the rotation in a pinch if needed. Still developing, which gives me hope that his subpar control will round into shape. Keeps the ball down, however, which helps him get out of most self-created jams. Again, another guy on a short leash.

This is not a staff that inspires confidence, if I'm honest. In the rotation, Hart at least looks good; the others look decidedly average. The pen is the same, with two newbies, and four guys who earned negative WAR last year. Still, we made what looked like a patchwork bullpen into the AL's best, somehow. We'll need that again. At quick glance, we've got three starters and four or five relievers in AAA that could step in right away. I'm hoping I won't have to do a lot of puppeteering this season, but I can feel it in the wind already. We'll see...

Injured already:
RP Dan Brown, 25, RH, 6.9M (2046 arb), 3-3 1.95, 23 SV, 59 G, 69 IP, 80 K, 2.2 WAR. He'll be back in just over a week. Can last year's surprise Hoyt Wilhelm trophy winner do it again? I'm bullish. He's a groundballer who can hit 101 MPH, with a wicked fastball/change combo, and a curve that stinks, but supposedly could develop well enough to make him a starter. Will it? Nah, probably. Come back strong, Dan, we'll need you.

SP Jonathan Murray, 28, LH, 850K (2046 arb), 3-2 4.18, 11 GS, 67 IP, 57 K, 0.5 WAR. Latest scouting reports dropped his ratings a bit, which hurts. On paper, at least, he's a definite #2 or #3 starter, but hasn't shown that consistently yet. Has a pretty solid five-pitch repertoire, with a change being his best pitch. Will start the year in AAA on rehab.

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Despite some of the biggest names in free agency not being signed until late, it was a busy off-season across the league. The Dodgers, as usual, were among the busiest, and added 39 WAR (26.5 net gain) over the winter, including 3 starting pitchers, 3 more relievers, a 5-WAR SS, and reigning AL batting champ Matt Anderson. Seattle was second, adding 22 WAR (16.1 net gain), including returning superstar OF Mike Wapner and free agent plum Juan Rodriquez. They'll contend for league best, I'm certain. At the other end, St Louis lost 22 WAR (14.5 net loss), including 3/4 of their infield, their closer, and two starting pitchers. We ranked 24th, having lost -6.9 WAR, most of it being SP Mike Messinger.

BNN Season Predictions are out! I may not be optimistic about our chances this year, but MLB certainly is, saying we'll finish with 111 wins and run away with our division. We'll score the most runs and give up the fewest. Okay, season's over, trophy is ours! If only... Regardless, our division looks tough, with Seattle tabbed for 95 wins and Oakland, 92, both making the playoffs. Detroit will win the Central by two games over Milwaukee, while Boston will win the East with just 85 wins. LA and Texas occupy the bottom of the tank, with just 67 wins apiece. Adam Groff, Rob Hart, and Eric Jones (!) made the Top Hitters and Top Pitchers list. Wow, just...Jones, huh. Wow.

In the NL, Philadelphia is once again the cream of the crop, with 102 wins. Cincinnati wins the Central with 90 wins, while San Diego claims the West with 93. NY and LA figure to be the wild card teams. Arizona is tabbed to win just 59 games. They should be fun to watch. Once again, the East looks tough, with five teams finishing over .500.

Prospect rankings are out...and we're third! Third! 3B Dante Padilla ranks 6th among all prospects, and yet, I remain unconvinced. He looks great on paper, but hasn't hit his weight since rookie ball (he weighs 215). P Olimpio le Coq ranks 22nd, but had a bad April scouting report, losing ground in stuff, movement, and velocity. Ergh.... IF Manny Rangel (30th) and OF Kenny Welch (75th) round out the top 100, and both are starting the season in the bigs. The #1 overall prospect is Cincinnati pitcher Cris Frias, 20, who looks like the real deal. Except for low control (natch), he's ready for The Show already. The White Sox--the league's top-rated system--have the #2 prospect, pitcher Burton Dick, a future #1 starter. The top-rated batter is #3 Alfonso Torres, 20, a 2B in the Arizona system. The former 5th round pick has exceeded expectations and looks like a definite all-star caliber batter. He's still a couple years away. Of note is the #20 overall prospect, pitcher Sergio Gil: we traded him to SF in 2044, along with several other prospects for Kenny Welch (see above) and Shamar Jackson (last year's #37 ranked prospect; this year not on the list).

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Here's where I make my prediction for the year. Offensively, this should look like last season: lots of hits and runs, but not a power team. Just how we fare overall, I think, will hang more on our pitching than our hitting. Last year, our bullpen bailed us out when the rotation struggled; we'll probably need that again. Can we win the division? With good health, steady hitting, and at least average pitching -- yes, I think we will. Will we win 111 games, like MLB thinks we will? LOL no.