Quote:
Originally Posted by x McLovin x
Well, to answer your question, it's definitely possible for a player's rate of home runs per at bat to decrease and their rate of doubles per at bat to increase and still be hitting the ball harder than normal. Guess which stat readily available at the tip of your fingers would show this to you? You guessed it - exit velocity. The likely reason for this scenario can be attributed to a lower launch angle than the base scenario. Something else you can't glean from a box score...but oh wait, I forgot you have the marvelous ability to watch (and recall) every at bat for every single player in MLB.
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Unfortunately, in the case of Kris Bryant his stats predicted his exit velocity, not the other way around. As documented
here Bryant's career low in HR rate was also accompanied by a career low in EV (85.8 compared to a career average of 88.1). Knowing the actual number simply validated the observation which I have said on numerous times EV can do. The conclusion that Bryant wasn't hitting the ball as hard as before was supported by data
other than AEV, meaning knowing the actual AEV number was not vital. I concluded by his double rate he was hitting the ball hard enough to find the gaps, but not the fences-something I also observed watching him play but I guess an educated eye doesn't count anymore. I didn't know his AEV when I came to that conclusion, turns out I was right anyway. AEV validated my conclusion, it didn't lead me to it. Either that is the biggest bit of dumb luck on my part as I'm an old codger who doesn't understand how baseball is played and how to read data, or I have a smidgen of knowledge about the game of baseball, what to watch when you're looking at a hitter, and what data can tell you.