[Bub13]

Well that sucked. Maybe not if you're a snowball-throwing, dumpster-as-swimming-pool-having Philadelphia fan; but it sucks hard nevertheless. Not as bad as losing to the effing Dodgers would have, so there's that, I guess. Still stinks. Anyway...now we move into a long off-season, with some really tough decisions coming up, and probably a bizarre nonsensical visit from owner Angel Pagan in the near future. I'm gonna guess he'll say...we didn't make enough money, he's mad we didn't win the title, and still wants me to find a better catcher than Rob Rich. And maybe to steal 200 bases next year too. I'm going to stay drunk for the next month to prepare myself.

First off, you may have noticed that I fired manager Clarence Whitney in the clubhouse after the game seven loss. Classless? Maybe, but it's not your team; nor are you his mother, so your opinion counts for nothing. After thinking about it overnight, I decide to replace him with long-time team pitching coach Matt Sargent. Sarge's rep is excellent, and players like him. Well, all the pitchers do. The batters will take some more convincing, but they'll come around. To replace him in the bullpen, I promote AAA PC Conor Russell, who's been with the organization for ten years, and fully deserves the promotion. David Schuknecht will remain as bench coach, Adam Engel as hitting coach, and we're sticking with scouting director Moises Patino and trainer Jordan Villalobos. Assistant GM Grant Henning will not have his contract renewed, really only because I don't think Assistant GMs should be paid over half a million dollars, which is the raise he wants. AA manager Kyle Lobstein just won a championship for Lewiston, but wants a raise to 250K; he too won't be renewed. Likewise Short A Poughkeepsie hitting coach Matt Dacey. All can be replaced more cheaply.

Two days after the collapse, Pagan visits. It does not go poorly, which surprises me. Yes, he wants to make more money, but he "knows I can do better next year." Yes, he wants a better catcher, but he thinks Rob Rich--who plays good defense and hit .319 with 40 doubles--is "good enough, I suppose." Sheesh. He's happy with our organizational prospects, which rank 5th at the moment. And he wants a championship next season, which will "cement my legacy." The best news of all he drops via text after he leaves: he's raising our budget next season to $184M. Wha...? That's a $20M increase, which I have never seen in my time on the islands. Crazy, but GOOD crazy. The old man must be getting soft in his dotage (he's 50, btw). I am all smiles for once.

......

Before I get to the rest of our off-season decisions-to-be, here's a quick look around the league. Houston got an early start at riding the personnel carousel, firing manager Efrain Nevares and GM Joseph Woolfolk just before the end of the season. The GM, sure, since he hadn't done anything to make their team better, and the owner isn't firing himself. Nevares, tho, seemed like a good manager, was well-liked, and didn't take the firing lightly: "It's a bush town with a bush press and a bush management team." Well, maybe not so sympathetic then... Miami fired its own GM/Manager duo, in particular dumping popular manager Tony Diaz. Diaz had been Marlins skipper for 8 years, and the worsening records recently probably weren't really his fault, so much as management's decisions to not re-sign high profile free agents. (No Derek Jeter sighting yet, thankfully.)... And the Yankees fired manager Jose Jimenez after two terrible 60-win seasons. Jimenez managed in our system for ten seasons before taking the Bronx job. No word on his replacement yet.

No owners have died yet, although there is still hope/time.

......

Now back to us.

Our rotation gets the first hard look. The end-of-season starters were Mike Messinger, Ryan Ratliff, Eric Jones, Tim Pinksen, and Taylor Barnett. Messinger, making 13.8M, wants an 8-year, 251M deal, starting at 27M and escalating. No, just no. I will offer him the 13M arbitration amount, which he'll refuse. He will then sign with someone, a month into free agency, for about 15 to 18M. After telling me he wants 27M. That's how this stupid thing works. Ratliff makes minimum (500K), and will get renewed. He had a decent rookie year, and gets another cheap year to prove himself valuable. Jones is more interesting. He'll be entering his age-29 season, and is sitting on a team option for 9.3M for that year. He's been with us for eight seasons, never gets hurt, and seems to bounce back to solidity right when you think he's turned to jello. His K/9, never high, has declined for the last three years; but, he does alternate good with bad years, and is coming off a largely bad year. Right now, I'm inclined to use his option and squeeze one more season out of him. Plus, he's a lefty. Pinksen, acquired from NYY at the deadline, was pretty bad until partway through September, and has one more year remaining, at 6.7M. He's 31, and will probably stay unless someone beats him out in camp and I trade him. Barnett, 2044's sensational half-season darling, came back to earth this year, and then some. He's under arbitration for next year, and hopefully for under a million, so I'll keep him around and see what he does in March. Not mentioned: Rob Hart, who hopefully comes back full strength next year as our ace, and Jonathan Murray, who looks good on paper and throws really well for us (when healthy), but has an absurdly low arb estimate of 850K. He'll be back, and hopefully back on form.

So the rotation forming in my head atm is Hart, Ratliff, Jones, Pinksen, and one of Murray or Barnett. NOT GOOD, not fearsome by any stretch. And while we have some good talent percolating on the farm, none of it looks to be ready for 2046, unless someone does some serious growing in these next few months. So do I go out and pluck a #2/#3 type starter out of free agency? Do I take a look at signing Messinger for cheap(-ish), if he's still available in, say, December? Yeah, probably I do. I don't want to go into the season with a patchwork rotation, but I also don't want to break the bank on one arm, either.

The bullpen is more settled. Dan Brown and Rick Ramirez took turns as closer after YT Yaung went out for the season. Ramirez was decent, but Brown was a revelation. His arb estimate has shot up to 5.5M, and I'm willing to pay to see if he can do it again. Ramirez's salary will go up in '46 too, but he's also worth it. Yaung, however, has an arb estimate at 6.6M (vs 5.3M salary this year), which I'm not going to touch, sorry. Everyone else will be back to compete for spots.

There are also some discussions to be had regarding our batters. 1B Sen Masuda declined his PO, but oddly is still under arbitration for next season. His estimate is 9.3M (he made 6M this year). Do I keep him? I'd like to move Groff off of third, and regular DH Klump had a good season, but cannot hit lefties. Masuda was, however, our only consistent power threat, all year long, and finished with 136 RBI, leading the team by a long margin. Plus, he's insanely popular locally.

RF John Cannon had a monster year in 2044, then went UFA. No one signed him for his ridiculous 20M demand, so I snapped him up on the cheap, at 6.9M in early April. Now he's back on the verge of free agency. He wants an eight-year deal worth 11.5M per, but is coming off a disappointing season of just 24 HR (his 162-G average is 45). I can shoot him the usual 13M offer, which he might take, but I'm leaning away from pinning a ton of money on a guy who's about to enter his 30s. Plus, he has no range in right, which is a major drawback.

Elsewhere: catcher Rob Rich will see his arb money go up, and I'll probably try to lock in him longer term before the season starts. 2B JJ Simmons will also see an arb payday, and we'll also begin negotiating with him on a longer deal. LF Joseph Hart will also get a slight bump, but I'm not as set on retaining him longer term as I am with Rich and Simmons. Most everyone else will be back on cheap deals. Oh, except for Klein, who finally proved himself to me after two solid seasons in center: he's now under contract for six seasons, and will get 3.1M next year, rising to 6.5M by 2051. Oh (pt. 2), and also except for OF/DH Travis McArthur. I nabbed him for league minimum in April, and he was good off the bench: .320/9/37. However, I suspect that the 33-year-old doesn't have much left in the tank, and despite a good arm he's become a liability in the field. I won't re-sign him, but might take a look at him over the winter if I can grab him for cheap as he's got platoon usefulness.

......

Speaking of arbitrations.... We have fifteen players eligible for arbitration, including nine pitchers. Ultimately, I decide to make offers to ten players, and will let the rest walk. If we win all of these arbitrations, we'll pay out 15.8M more to these guys. We'll obviously lose the high profile ones, but win the cheap ones, as usual. Among the guys who weren't offered arbitration, there are a number of recognizable names. Backup catcher Mario Burgueno won't be back, nor will closer YT Yaung. RP Ramon Archila has been around for a few seasons now, but ended up in AAA by mid-summer, and now will be on his own by the end of this month. And P Pete Morrow also won't be back. Morrow looks great on paper, throws well in AAA, but has been pretty bad for us for two seasons now. His estimate is 3.5M, which is too much for a perpetual disappointment.

Three guys could get the 13M qualifying offer (Cannon, McArthur, and Messinger), but only Mess gets an offer up front. He'll say no, of course, but will be worth the compensatory pick if I don't re-take him in free agency. I haven't decided on Cannon yet because I'm leaning away from wanting him back, and I don't want to pay him 13M if he accepts the qualifier. Maybe make the offer, then try trading him if he says yes? Dunno.

Finally, eleven minor leaguers can walk to free agency, and none of them will be brought back. Among them are IF/OF Roberto Mendez, who has 3/5 of the tools you want in a player: He can field, throw, and run better than 95% of all major leaguers, but he can't hit and has no power. P Jamie Berisford was a supplemental #1 pick in 2039 and had a bright future once. But he missed almost all of 2040, all of '41, half of '42, and most of '43. He's been in AAA for two seasons, and has gotten progressively worse. Sad story. Finally, 1B Pablo Mora, an international signee from 2036 for a million bucks. He made it to AA this year, but could barely crack the lineup. Adieu to all of them.

......

We make one small early roster move, claiming RP Steve Dickerson off waivers from San Diego. Dickerson isn't any better than most of our other relievers, but he'll replace some of the guys who won't be back, guys who are AAA/MLB fringe types. He pitched 39 big league innings last year, with a 4.62 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He was better in 2044, so he's got some positive history. Easy pick-up. Mario Burgueno and OF Danny Sipos are waived off of the 40-man roster, signs to their agents that their days are numbered...

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There has been a rash of off-season incidents this fall. First, Dodgers reliever Jose Hernandez shot himself while cleaning one of his guns. He'll be back, but embarrassed. Just don't say anything about it to him, or...blammo. Next, Miami pitcher Corey Downes got mugged, falling and breaking his kneecap. He'll miss seven months. Finally, White Sox catcher--and 36M dollar man--Dan Starr suffers back spasms while skydiving. Luckily, no one gets killed...yet.

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Awards season has begun, starting with the Gold Gloves. Our own Rich Stoneback wins his second, at SS, but his first with us. Minnesota 3B Paul Foster won his 8th; he won his first in 2034. Teammate R.J. Hernandez won his fourth, at 2B. In the NL, Philly's SS Alex Castillo won his 6th, four of them now at short. New Orleans LF Matt Powell won his third straight, and Philly 1B Danny Baca won his third.

Next, the Hoyt Wilhelm award, to the each league's best relief pitcher...and surprise! Dan Brown wins the AL trophy, for basically a half season of work (even though he was on the roster all season) as closer: 59 GP, 69 IP, 80 K, 23 saves. Pat Stanley also got votes, finishing fourth. Arizona closer Brad Schmitt (30 saves, 1.70 ERA) won the NL trophy.

No Islanders won Silver Slugger trophies, but Oakland's Vinny Vargas took home his 7th, likewise Detroit's Matt Anderson, and LAA's Juan Rodriquez his fourth, and third in a row. In the NL, STL catcher Alexis Mercedes--and former Islander--won his fourth trophy.

Boston CF Jose Diaz, who hit .334, won the AL rookie of the year (Jonathan Klump came in third, with 6 first place votes). In the NL, it wasn't even close as Cincinnati OF Jose Tavares (.328/53/124) swept all the first-place votes.

Well, the press hates me, obviously, as they vote fired manager Clarence Whitney manager of the year. Hope it keeps you warm, Clarence. Philly's Felix Osorio takes home his second consecutive NL trophy.

Although three of our pitchers received votes, Seattle's Miguel Moreno takes home the AL Cy Young trophy, the second of his career. He finished the season 20-5, with a 2.40 ERA. Rob Hart finished second despite missing the last month-plus of the season, Mike Messinger came in fifth, and Dan Brown (!) seventh. Atlanta's Jose Gutierrez won the NL trophy, with SD's Gary Florence--who's season also ended early due to injury--finishing second.

Baltimore's Cesar Alvarenga didn't have the best WAR season, but his .338/47/157 year garnered him the AL MVP. Our Rich Stoneback received one first place vote and finished fourth overall. Cincy's Jose Tavares caps off a terrific rookie season by taking home the NL MVP, receiving 30 of 36 first place votes. Atlanta's Cy Young winner, Jose Gutierrez, came in second.

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Another update: Hall of Fame voting begins on November 19th. Thirty-one players are on the ballot, with thirteen first-timers. The highest returnee is pitcher Orlando Ramos, who received 39.2% of the votes last year. He was a strikeout king--recording 4278 of them--but that was about it. Of the new players, probably the best of the lot are catcher Tyler Markey (324 HR, .309 average, 2044 hits, 65 WAR, 1 MVP, 3 ASG), and OF Kelvin Robinson (304 HR, .300 average, 2589 hits, 89.4 WAR, 1 MVP, 2 GG, 9 ASG). Other top returners are P Gabriel Gonzalez (11% votes, 204 wins, 2996 K, 58 WAR), IF Parker Kelly (20%, 2627 hits, 77 WAR), 2B Brendan Rodgers (30%, 2737 hits, 80 WAR), 3B Mason Templet (11%, 2692 hits, 73 WAR), OF Dillon Thomas (11%, 366 HR, 72 WAR), 1B Cisco Videira (9%, 3011 hits, 44 WAR), and pitcher Orlando Ramos. Stay tuned...

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Finally, arbitration hearings come in, and we lose most of them. Still, our salaries only go up by about 3M from what I expected, for about an 18M increase. We're currently on the hook for $155.7M in salaries for 2046, a 16M jump over 2045. Accounting tells me we can afford 11M more in free agent salaries...but I don't know. And, no surprise, both Messinger and Cannon decline my qualifying offers. Messinger I'll probably sniff around in free agency, but Cannon I won't. But with only that 11M in free agent money available, unless I trade someone, I'll probably look for cheaper free agent options, if anyone at all.