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Very interesting.
I agree that randomness and the luck of schedule strength are the main factors involved.
But there are other factors, as many have mentioned... strategy settings, fatigue, etc.
My pitchers always underperform the same cards on other teams, but that isn't surprising... My park is a hitters' park and I sacrifice defense in favor of offense, so I expect that.
I strongly suspect the game engine includes some things most people aren't aware of.
For example, I think there's a high probability that situational modifiers are applied to mirror real life baseball. For example, everyone having a higher batting avg with men on base, or a lower walk rate with the bases loaded.
But this can have a cascading effect... if one of your players has a bad luck hitting slump, then having fewer base runners on base can mean the next guy hits worse too, because he isn't getting that modifier edge.
Another thing I've never seen anyone mention on these boards...
Expected variability of results will be higher with players who derive their value from hitting home runs. Simply because events that are more rare take longer to regress to the mean.
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