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max venerabel · 03-15-2019, 08:45 AM

I had another thought on this.

If you look at the chart of Mike Trouts posted earlier in this thread, what stands out is the 129 point swing between the best BABIP season posted (.402) and the worst (.272). That seems pretty wild for 24 identical players.

However, if you look at MLB stats for 2018, the performance of the 24 Trouts are far off from the general range of BABIP for qualified hitters over the course of the season. The top BABIP was .375, the bottom was .217, for a 158 point swing.

Perhaps OOTP simply looks at all hitters (and maybe pitchers) as completely equal in terms of BABIP, so it doesn't matter if they are 24 identical players or 24 random players.

The real Mike Trout, for example, seems to have a more steady year-to-year BABIP than a sample of 24 random MLB players would (.318 in his worst full season to .383 in his best, for a swing of 65 points). I'm not certain what the typical bell curve of a single player's career is like in terms of BABIP, but if the curve is softer than for players overall, yet PT doesn't (for whatever reason) model that curve in its mechanics, perhaps that's all that's going on.

03-15-2019, 08:45 AM	#73
max venerabel Minors (Double A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 103	I had another thought on this. If you look at the chart of Mike Trouts posted earlier in this thread, what stands out is the 129 point swing between the best BABIP season posted (.402) and the worst (.272). That seems pretty wild for 24 identical players. However, if you look at MLB stats for 2018, the performance of the 24 Trouts are far off from the general range of BABIP for qualified hitters over the course of the season. The top BABIP was .375, the bottom was .217, for a 158 point swing. Perhaps OOTP simply looks at all hitters (and maybe pitchers) as completely equal in terms of BABIP, so it doesn't matter if they are 24 identical players or 24 random players. The real Mike Trout, for example, seems to have a more steady year-to-year BABIP than a sample of 24 random MLB players would (.318 in his worst full season to .383 in his best, for a swing of 65 points). I'm not certain what the typical bell curve of a single player's career is like in terms of BABIP, but if the curve is softer than for players overall, yet PT doesn't (for whatever reason) model that curve in its mechanics, perhaps that's all that's going on. __________________ New York Ospreys Last edited by max venerabel; 03-15-2019 at 09:40 AM.