Quote:
Originally Posted by BPS
They are not obscure at all.
If some effect appears when using a small sample, two possibilities exist: (1) the effect is real or (2) the effect is not real but only appeared due to chance. You cannot tell for sure which is the case. But, some folks assume that #2 is always the case.
Of course, it also is often the case that folks who think they have found some real effect (in a small sample) believe they have obvious evidence that the effect is real. This is equally incorrect.
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Stating that you cannot determine whether the effect is real or not because the sample isn't big enough is not stating either that the effect is real or not real. It's simply stating that you cannot draw any conclusions. Usually conclusions are being drawn when it is stated.
In fact, the original post is a good example. It was probably less than 50 innings and could simply be the product of 2-3 bad games.