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The seasonal inconsistency dynamic is not an issue for me, as I generally accept the sample size argument, as well as the concept that the cards are not performing in a static environment- each year, the competition level varies and will have a resultant impact on my player’s performance.
I track career stats for all my players, and generally find that over multiple seasons, they will fall to a predictable range of expected performance.
Having said that, I firmly believe that some players are more consistent year to year, while others will vary dramatically. I haven’t studied this in detail to try and figure out why this occurs- the 97 Randy Johnson is more consistent in range of performance than the 99 Kershaw, for example, or the 83 Votto is far more consistent in year to year performance than the 83 Rizzo, while the 85 Suarez performs closer every year to a normal range of performance than the 87 Longoria.
These trends have been consistent over what has now accumulated to over 1000 games+. At lower levels, two of my teams used the silver Frankie Frisch, and he never deviated more than 30+/- points of a 730 OPS over 5,000 at bats.
It would be possible in theory given enough data to compile a consistency factor, adjusted for league level, that could then be matched up against the underlying player ratings to try and understand at least some of the dynamics of variance.
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