Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger
The higher variability comes because the talent ratings in most PT leagues are much more flat than a regular OOTP league. Even in PT though, you won't see Perfect Pedro or Perfect Babe having too many bad seasons, they're just too good even with the inflated talent pool. But for average to bad players, or even just good ones, a bad season is always possible both in regular OOTP and in PT.
It's no different than in regular OOTP, but the flatter talent pool and the big difference in who is a average and likely highly variable player makes things feel different and makes it hard to adjust mentally to who's that sort of player.
In regular OOTP, you wouldn't think twice if Anibal Sanchez or Mike Moustakas has a down year one year and a great year the next. Never mind actual bad players. You are not only not surprised, but expect it even.
In some PT leagues, because of the higher and flatter talent pool, Anibal Sanchez = Bob Gibson and Mike Moustakas = Brooks Robinson. That can be a hard thing to wrap your brain around, but the underlying mechanics and variance are the same in each case.
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I assume that in regular OOTP the distribution of the various talents are kinda bell-shaped, but in PT I assume the distribution of talent isn't even necessarily symmetrical but is skewed right. And, the variance of the distributions of talents is relatively small (compared to regular OOTP).
As the underlying algorithms for producing (seasonal) statistical output in OOTP were developed using mostly broad, bell-shaped distributions of talents, in the setting of PT they generate (seasonal) output that might not be consistent with what people's intuition tell them is appropriate, in particular the occasional large change season to season. The talent distributions in PT set up apparent "butterfly effects" where small changes in initial conditions generate very different outputs.
If OOTP's algorithms were built anew for the PT environment, I bet these butterfly effects might be much smaller in magnitude.