Quote:
Originally Posted by zrog2000
If anyone has any theories about there being a hidden hot/cold streak that alters future performance, I'm all ears. But just saying it's true isn't enough for me to believe it. I think the hot/cold tags are for recent past performance and has nothing to do with current and future. But maybe I'm wrong.
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Yes, the hot/cold tags are indicators of recent performance. We know this from the regular game. Sending a player down to the minors removes the tag and bringing him back restores the tag. He comes back to the majors and he is still hot or cold at that level based on the last time that he was there even if it is months later. If it were a predictor, then it would stay with the player when he goes down or no longer be there when he comes back up after a long period in the minors.
There is certainly a tendency for players to gravitate toward the performance indicated by their ratings. However, regression to the mean may take a long time. The slumps and hot streaks are RNG-related so their end cannot be predicted. It could be the next game and it could be the next season. The statistical engine does force the stats to end up at or near predetermined totals. However, that is league-wide, not player-by-player. There is nothing in the engine that forces a player to perform at the level indicated by his ratings. So your player may never perform at his ratings and another version of the same card may consistently perform above his ratings. That's not to say that one card is jinxed and another is blessed, but it is just pure random luck.
Any attempt to moderate or cure a cold streak by benching the player is just bowing to superstition. By that logic, you should just continue to play your best players. However, it is possible to "win" by betting against the streak ending soon and substituting a player who might be "rolling better dice". If you are right, it is pure luck, but it might feel better than doing nothing.