Quote:
Originally Posted by ASURay
Not currently. The individual pitches are mostly important for determining the STUFF, STUFF vs LH, and STUFF vs RH ratings. I've never gotten any confirmation as to whether or not they do anything beyond that. For example, I don't think the in-game probability of a hitter putting the ball on the ground is any higher for a low sinker than it is for a high fastball or that the probability of a swing-and-miss is any higher if the pitcher throws their 95 FB as opposed to their 35 CB. I have always assumed that the pitch selection and location shown when you're playing out games is just random and doesn't have an effect. I think all of the outcomes are determined by the Stuff/Mov/Con ratings. I think the pitches are there for window dressing. I'm guessing the GB/FB tendency would have an impact, but I haven't modeled it yet. It would add a lot of variables to the model. More parameters to estimate requires a larger sample size. The biggest factor that my model doesn't account for is platoon splits. I'm just predicting overall FIP. We're seeing that LHP, for example tend to suffer in Perfect leagues quite a bit. An easy next step would be to add STF/MOV/CON vs LH/RH to my database and then just apply the same formula to get a rough idea of predicted FIP vs LH/RH. Chris Sale is a great example here. He gets torched by RH in Perfect leagues but does well vs LH. I've moved him to the bullpen and gone with an all-RHP rotation.
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The OVR 96 Kershaw is the only LH I have found that starts well for me in perfect. This is my second season with him and his ERA has been staying in the 3's. I do not know why he translates but he seems to so far.
He is allowing me to keep "The Big Train" as my closer.