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BPS · 01-12-2019, 01:28 PM

Continuing an idea above....

PT can involve 12-dimensional chess but, unfortunately, I can barely play 2-dimensional checkers. But moving ahead regardless of that:

If the number of HRs are set (mostly) at the start of a league, this means that--despite the fact that you have a huge number of big-name HR hitters in a league--HR suppression is no more important (on average) than in a second league with few big-name HR hitters (and the same level of HRs set to be hit in the league).

However, and this become interesting, because many of those playing PT believe (falsely!) that HR suppression is important we see more pitchers with high HR suppression ratings than really required by the stats engine. But, now that so many pitchers with relatively high movement appear in the league, it does become important to select your pitchers so that they also have high movement or you will find HRs will be shifted to your pitchers. That is, if the average movement in the league is 60 and you have a 50 movement pitcher, that pitcher will likely do okay as he might be in the 40th percentile of movement. But if the average movement in the league is now 65 (5 higher than previously because PTers think HR suppression is important), your 50 movement pitcher will likely have a bad experience as his movement rating might now be in the 25th percentile.So you too will need to dump your (relatively) poor movement pitcher...which raises the average movement which means higher movement becomes more important. So, pitcher profiles in the league might be based more on false beliefs than on what is objectively required by the stats engine.

That is, I too have Dennis Martinez with his 80 movement rating as a starter and he does okay.

But, if someone waved a magic wand and all movement ratings fell by 10 points the number of HRs would not increase and the distribution of HRs among pitchers would be unlikely to change.

Interestingly, as in life, false beliefs can shape the world and force people to make decisions they know are odd but they have no choice but to make if they want to succeed. People interacting in a group create their own social realities that only a fool would ignore!

But, moving to 2-dimensional checkers: now that pitchers are often selected because they have good movement (and, on average, perhaps relatively poorer stuff than otherwise would have been the case), it might be that certain types of hitters (say, those thrive in facing low stuff pitchers) might become more successful than otherwise they might be. This is might be a minor effect but it might also be a real effect too, and might have implications for what type of hitters someone wants on their team.

01-12-2019, 01:28 PM	#42
BPS All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 717	Continuing an idea above.... PT can involve 12-dimensional chess but, unfortunately, I can barely play 2-dimensional checkers. But moving ahead regardless of that: If the number of HRs are set (mostly) at the start of a league, this means that--despite the fact that you have a huge number of big-name HR hitters in a league--HR suppression is no more important (on average) than in a second league with few big-name HR hitters (and the same level of HRs set to be hit in the league). However, and this become interesting, because many of those playing PT believe (falsely!) that HR suppression is important we see more pitchers with high HR suppression ratings than really required by the stats engine. But, now that so many pitchers with relatively high movement appear in the league, it does become important to select your pitchers so that they also have high movement or you will find HRs will be shifted to your pitchers. That is, if the average movement in the league is 60 and you have a 50 movement pitcher, that pitcher will likely do okay as he might be in the 40th percentile of movement. But if the average movement in the league is now 65 (5 higher than previously because PTers think HR suppression is important), your 50 movement pitcher will likely have a bad experience as his movement rating might now be in the 25th percentile.So you too will need to dump your (relatively) poor movement pitcher...which raises the average movement which means higher movement becomes more important. So, pitcher profiles in the league might be based more on false beliefs than on what is objectively required by the stats engine. That is, I too have Dennis Martinez with his 80 movement rating as a starter and he does okay. But, if someone waved a magic wand and all movement ratings fell by 10 points the number of HRs would not increase and the distribution of HRs among pitchers would be unlikely to change. Interestingly, as in life, false beliefs can shape the world and force people to make decisions they know are odd but they have no choice but to make if they want to succeed. People interacting in a group create their own social realities that only a fool would ignore! But, moving to 2-dimensional checkers: now that pitchers are often selected because they have good movement (and, on average, perhaps relatively poorer stuff than otherwise would have been the case), it might be that certain types of hitters (say, those thrive in facing low stuff pitchers) might become more successful than otherwise they might be. This is might be a minor effect but it might also be a real effect too, and might have implications for what type of hitters someone wants on their team.