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Old 01-04-2019, 09:32 PM   #18
stealofhome
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Join Date: Apr 2014
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This is what I came up with for a formula to determine expected stolen base runs over 500 PA:

500*
(0.2-0.0008*Gap+0.0014*Eye-0.0005*Power+0.0014*Contact)*
(-0.05+0.004*Speed)*
(-0.2+0.003*Steal-0.0008*Speed)

This accounts for Opportunities/PA, Attempts/Opportunity, and Success/Attempt.

Top 5 ranked that I have in my database: Ty Cobb 96, King Kelly 98, Billy Hamilton 61, Terrance Gore 44, and Alan Wiggins 62. They're all about 2-3 expected runs over 500 PA, although this method tends to reduce the extremes somewhat.
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